Stock up on that liquor! | Page 6 | GTAMotorcycle.com

Stock up on that liquor!

crankcall said:
Now the LCBO employee are picketing the distribution centres that supply bars and restaurants. Is fair and legal and really pissing off people is how you get what you want .
I can’t wait to get more supply directly through wineries and small distilleries. I’ll gladly pay all taxes , and I’ll pay a premium. I really don’t like unions , mostly when many restaurants barely made it through the last 4 yrs , let’s make life harder for mom’s and pops and entrepreneurs.


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They saw that no one cared, except them, about the closures of the stores...so now they'll ramp up the pressure.

The union stated they're ready to last a LONG time in a strike position. I wonder if their members feel the same when their lack of pay starts catching up.

I posted the same on reddit and got down voted to hell and back. But it's reality. Just because the union can withstand an extended strike...doesn't mean the workers can.

And I support the rights of unions and workers all around, but you need to act in the best interest of the workers...not the union.
 
Guilds were created to protect trades , unions were created to protect workers . Guilds now foster training and skill transfers and many unions now exist to keep unions making money . My Dad was a union guy a few times in his working life , he accepted that was part of the job , but had little respect for the unions as a representation for workers .


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GreyGhost said:
There is no such thing as a livable wage and it is critically important that government compares their wages to similar jobs and ignores "livable". If government is paying more than double the equivalent private sector jobs, who is paying the taxes to cover those incomes? Sadly, in a world of limited resources, it is all percentage based. Retail workers will always struggle to afford life. Working for the public sector to get double the income of a compatriot in the private sector is horrible public policy. You have just changed the person that is struggling (for instance, lcbo workers would then be well above psw's who have training and licensing and would move down in the economic pecking order to a retail clerk).
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When I was in Norway the pizza server wasn't making much less then the engineers I was visiting at ABB. That pizza slice and fountain pop (think pizza pizza) was roughly CAD$30 in 2011. Gas was CAD$8/L. a 15min. cab ride was $125. A tall boy at the grocery store was $13.

Anything that included paying a service worker was crazy expensive. Different way of living. Very little restaurants as no one ever ate out. We went out for a drink with the engineer from ABB...at is apartment. They couldn't understand why we all had trucks and detached homes. We couldn't understand what drives them to work hard when they could make nearly as much money with no training, licensing, stress. Different culture/values I guess.
 
OPSEU says they will not return to the table until province agrees to substantially limit the rollout to convenience stores. Doug says rollout was planned for 2026 but has been pulled forward and will be fully implemented by October 2024. Union realizes this is their hill to die on. If they lose this fight (and I think they should), they will have less power at every future bargaining round.
 
The OPSUE union will paralyse the industries and hotels/bars/restaurants will all suffer , then comes the “support” unions that all start slowdowns to make sure OPSUE get attention. Dougie might have some work to do here .


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crankcall said:
The OPSUE union will paralyse the industries and hotels/bars/restaurants will all suffer , then comes the “support” unions that all start slowdowns to make sure OPSUE get attention. Dougie might have some work to do here .


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Hopefully LCBO can come up with a way to ease distribution headaches. Can workers strike anywhere or just LCBO properties? Science center is big and empty. Or use a cross-dock to split trucks from distillers to distribution trucks. Cases of whatever delivered to restaurant doors without going near the lcbo warehouse. Move the cross-dock location around so union can't screw it up too badly.

EDIT:
Douggie is doubling down on RTD in convenience stores. Either union drops that as one of their demands (and f them, they are supposed to support members not dictate provincial policy) or they can stay out.

www.cp24.com

Ford says striking LCBO workers won’t get deal if union pushes to keep Ready-To-Drink cocktails out of grocery, corner stores

Premier Doug Ford says no deal will be reached with striking LCBO workers if the union representing employees continues to push to keep Ready-To-Drink cocktails out of grocery and convenience stores.
www.cp24.com www.cp24.com

“If they want to negotiate over RTD (Ready-To-Drink beverages), the deal is off,” Ford told reporters at a news conference at a brewery in Etobicoke on Wednesday.

“Let me be very clear. It is done, it is gone. That ship has sailed. It’s halfway across Lake Ontario.”
 
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GreyGhost said:
If the margin given to Galen is 10%, I don't see a major downside. If douggie allows the margins to change, it can obviously be a colossal loser for taxpayers.
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The margins will be driven low by the brewers and distillers - that's how they do business. Grocers may be big... but they don't own the brands or the customer demand for alcohol. Liquor margins for small stores and boutique outlets will run around 35%, small grocers 20%, and large grocers 10%, Costco 9%. LCBO margins are 59% today as a state-run entity, if privately run it's likely would be closer to 70% -- unheard of in any type of volume consumer goods.

So - what does that mean? Let's look at pricing for a 1l bottle of middle-of-the-road Vodka at typical retailer margins

Wholesale​
LCBO​
Boutique​
Small Store​
Grocery Store​
Costco​
Margin
59%​
45%​
30%​
11%​
9%​
Sell Price
$20​
$48.78​
$36.36​
$28.57​
$22.47​
$21.98​

Will it end up like that? No. The $2.4M dividend is part of the province's income, they won't want to lose that. My guess is they bake that dividend into the wholesale price as a tax, on this bottle it would be around $7 to keep the gov revenue-neutral. So realistic consumer prices may look like this:

Wholesale+TaxLCBOBoutiqueSmall StoreGrocery StoreCostco
Margin45%30%11%9%
Sell Price$27N/A$49.09$38.57$30.34$29.67
 
Mad Mike said:
The margins will be driven low by the brewers and distillers - that's how they do business. Grocers may be big... but they don't own the brands or the customer demand for alcohol. Liquor margins for small stores and boutique outlets will run around 35%, small grocers 20%, and large grocers 10%, Costco 9%. LCBO margins are 59% today as a state-run entity, if privately run it's likely would be closer to 70% -- unheard of in any type of volume consumer goods.

So - what does that mean? Let's look at pricing for a 1l bottle of middle-of-the-road Vodka at typical retailer margins

Wholesale​
LCBO​
Boutique​
Small Store​
Grocery Store​
Costco​
Margin
59%​
45%​
30%​
11%​
9%​
Sell Price
$20​
$48.78​
$36.36​
$28.57​
$22.47​
$21.98​

Will it end up like that? No. The $2.4M dividend is part of the province's income, they won't want to lose that. My guess is they bake that dividend into the wholesale price as a tax, on this bottle it would be around $7 to keep the gov revenue-neutral. So realistic consumer prices may look like this:

Wholesale+TaxLCBOBoutiqueSmall StoreGrocery StoreCostco
Margin45%30%11%9%
Sell Price$27N/A$49.09$38.57$30.34$29.67
Click to expand...
LCBO is selling to loblaws and corner stores at retail LCBO price minus 10%. Currently private stores must match LCBO price at retail but that control is being lifted at some point in the future. LCBO is baking in the profit as the wholesaler.
 
So how’s that going to work? Right now LCBO earns the tax, and the profit from the actual sale.

Once things move more to private, will the profit drop much? Or will they just bake it in some other way?
 
mimico_polak said:
So how’s that going to work? Right now LCBO earns the tax, and the profit from the actual sale.

Once things move more to private, will the profit drop much? Or will they just bake it in some other way?
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According to what I have heard, LCBO buys the bottle of whisky for ~$7 and will sell it to you at retail for $35 or loblaws for $31.50. Union pretending that their members are responsible for the profit is rhetoric. Monopoly on wholesale is responsible for profit.
 
jc100 said:
All of it no? Taxes are separate. The $2.5 bill figure is the pure profit ploughed back into the province.

This day and age I’m not going to say that having a decent wage is a bad thing for workers at the LCBO. If AI takes away some more skilled jobs this is all that will be left for some and you should be able to live off that. More power to them.

I get monopolies are “bad” in most mindsets but privatization does not necessarily have a good record either.
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Here's the bad in the LCBO.

1) They are inefficient distributors. Their costs are considerably higher than SAQ in Quebec.
2) They are a gov't make work project. The distribution of consumer goods by the LCBO is a totally redundant government operation. It adds unnecessary costs for the consumer AND competes for workers with the private sector.
mimico_polak said:
So how’s that going to work? Right now LCBO earns the tax, and the profit from the actual sale.

Once things move more to private, will the profit drop much? Or will they just bake it in some other way?
Click to expand...
If LCBO gets defunded, eliminating their retail, distribution, and overhead would reduce consumer costs considerably.

To maintain gov't revenue (the "Dividend"), the province would likely add a tax equal to 30% of the wholesale cost. Gov't know mass retailers are quite happy with a single-digit margin on booze -- that's not likely to change.

The market should get more competitive by removing LCBO as a gatekeeper (LCBO limits market access and fixes prices -- these keep prices higher than need be). Existing distribution networks replace LCBO, absorbing liquor products at a near zero incremental cost -- another consumer price saving.
 
Mad Mike said:
Here's the bad in the LCBO.

1) They are inefficient distributors. Their costs are considerably higher than SAQ in Quebec.
2) They are a gov't make work project. The distribution of consumer goods by the LCBO is a totally redundant government operation. It adds unnecessary costs for the consumer AND competes for workers with the private sector.

If LCBO gets defunded, eliminating their retail, distribution, and overhead would reduce consumer costs considerably.

To maintain gov't revenue (the "Dividend"), the province would likely add a tax equal to 30% of the wholesale cost. Gov't know mass retailers are quite happy with a single-digit margin on booze -- that's not likely to change.

The market should get more competitive by removing LCBO as a gatekeeper (LCBO limits market access and fixes prices -- these keep prices higher than need be). Existing distribution networks replace LCBO, absorbing liquor products at a near zero incremental cost -- another consumer price saving.
Click to expand...

All will be well if you like Coors lite or barrel bottom wine. Then if LCBO locations close (which they may) your choice will actually not increase as I see it. Your access to existing mass market items will.
 
Mad Mike said:
To maintain gov't revenue (the "Dividend"), the province would likely add a tax equal to 30% of the wholesale cost. Gov't know mass retailers are quite happy with a single-digit margin on booze -- that's not likely to change.
Click to expand...
LCBO profit is not 30% of wholesale. Not even close.

According to the link below, wholesale is $7, tax is $8, markup is $16.

If they don't want to give up the 2.5B dividend, they need a 200% bump on wholesale prices, not a 30% bump. They may be able to back that off some if the distribution is as inefficient as you say and they can eliminate a lot of expenses.
 
Mad Mike said:
Here's the bad in the LCBO.

1) They are inefficient distributors. Their costs are considerably higher than SAQ in Quebec.
2) They are a gov't make work project. The distribution of consumer goods by the LCBO is a totally redundant government operation. It adds unnecessary costs for the consumer AND competes for workers with the private sector.

If LCBO gets defunded, eliminating their retail, distribution, and overhead would reduce consumer costs considerably.

To maintain gov't revenue (the "Dividend"), the province would likely add a tax equal to 30% of the wholesale cost. Gov't know mass retailers are quite happy with a single-digit margin on booze -- that's not likely to change.

The market should get more competitive by removing LCBO as a gatekeeper (LCBO limits market access and fixes prices -- these keep prices higher than need be). Existing distribution networks replace LCBO, absorbing liquor products at a near zero incremental cost -- another consumer price saving.
Click to expand...
While that sound in theory...we've seen what the 'competitive' market does to pricing...massive grocery price bills that continue to increase while margins for the big boys continue to increase while costs to consumers go up up up, and the suppliers get squeezed squeezed squeezed.

I'm all for fair market competition and additional options for consumers.

I just worry this will simply increase costs to everyone.
 
jc100 said:
All will be well if you like Coors lite or barrel bottom wine. Then if LCBO locations close (which they may) your choice will actually not increase as I see it. Your access to existing mass market items will.
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I don't think they are going to close all of them. I would have zero issue if they closed five out of six in Barrie and cut costs by $4M per year.

EDIT:
On mad mikes efficiency point, give me 10% off and I will buy cases instead of individual bottles. Easier for everyone.
 
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I'm with you @GreyGhost
I just don't get "Support the LCBO selling you booze, by not being to buy booze from the LCBO"
Right up there with the more you spend, the more you save...
 
The sale of liquor in Ontario is going in the right direction if you remember the previous generations.Remember this?
Liquor.jpg
And before that was prohibition.
prohibition.jpeg
 
Wingboy said:
The sale of liquor in Ontario is going in the right direction if you remember the previous generations.Remember this?
View attachment 68737
Click to expand...

I remember that. It would sure solve the pitfalls of the current step-back-and-let-them-walk-out-with-whatever-they-want total loss model in place now.
 
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