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Running from police.
- Thread starter Old Dude
- Start date
The scenario you are considering is: the probability of successfully running N times, given that you have already successfully run N-1 times.
In case of independent events, this is exactly the same as the probability of getting away once.
However, this assumes that an event of "having succeeded N-1 times" has occured. This is the difference between what you are saying and what we are saying.
I was kind of thinking that exact same thing..different words bt same lol
You still aren't following the logic i'm trying to present.
I'm not a gambler, but i understand finite math. Winning one turn, one hand, one spin, doesnt mean you are ahead. It just means you won. Conversely, losing one run means you lost.. regardless of how many times you ran. Whether you ran 3 times or 27 times, if you get caught the penalties are the same.
The odds on one specific hand, one spin, one run don't change. However, in a series of hands, spins or runs, the odds of one win or loss among them do change and is dependent on the odds in one specific event, as well as the number of events.
When talking about running from the cops, it doesnt matter if you failed in 1 attempt out of 3 or 1 out of 100. You're facing criminal charges and are royally boned. The more often you run, the more likely it is that one of those runs will be unsuccessful.
This is BASIC math. I'm sorry you can't follow the logic but it's very very basic.
Who gives a **** what he's thinking? Basic probability and statistics dictate that the more often a rider chooses to run, the more likely it is that one of those runs will end badly.
Only when considering the entire run, not the discrete event. Not that it matters though. You only have to lose once and there's no respawn location.
That's a uselss perspective. If you use that kind of thinking, then you could stand in the middle of the 401 interminably with exactly the same chance of being hit by a truck. So after you survived the first few seconds your logic would be that there's no increased risk to just stay there. But that's wrong, exposure to risk increases the risk! Even while the probability remains the same.
DAYTONA
Banned
not if you punch it hard enough herc
DAYTONA
Banned
thye dont read english too well around here
DAYTONA
Banned
they dont read English too well around here
AlienTech
Active member
That's not what Kellen was suggesting.
- 1 in ten cups is a winner. 10%.
- You buy 10 cups.
- What is the probability that one (or more) of those cups is a winner?
I actually want you to do the math and tell us.
-Licensed rider
-Insured bike
-Clean driving record
The police speed measuring devices are less than accurate. At the SBR radar run this year my friend did the first run at 232, and the second run she said was faster but it came with a reading of 186.
The police have immunity from the law. They can break all the rules with their own driving, assulting people, frame people, commit perjury, and do whatever it takes to make their 'performance expectations'. It only makes it worse that such a large percentage of police have huge egos and enjoy bullying people around.
I have no reason not to stop except I don't like being beaten up or fined huge amounts of money just so they can meet their performance expectations.
So I have two options....neither one is good:
1) If I stop I am subjected to their false accusations, possibly being physically abused, forced to pay the fines, possibly loosing my licence until I can prove my innocence, which would mean I loose my job since I can't work without being able to commute.
2) Make a run for it. I might get away without being beaten up, fined, and I can still go to work and be a productive person in our society tomorrow. The downfall.....if I got caught I would have one extra charge of running from the police. This is a criminal offence which doesn't cost anything and doesn't affect you nearly as much as if you stopped in the first place.
If the punishment fit the crime and if I could be sure the cop pulling me over isn't getting grief from his wife and wanting to lay a beating on someone to take his personal fustration out, I would consider stopping more often.
-Insured bike
-Clean driving record
The police speed measuring devices are less than accurate. At the SBR radar run this year my friend did the first run at 232, and the second run she said was faster but it came with a reading of 186.
The police have immunity from the law. They can break all the rules with their own driving, assulting people, frame people, commit perjury, and do whatever it takes to make their 'performance expectations'. It only makes it worse that such a large percentage of police have huge egos and enjoy bullying people around.
I have no reason not to stop except I don't like being beaten up or fined huge amounts of money just so they can meet their performance expectations.
So I have two options....neither one is good:
1) If I stop I am subjected to their false accusations, possibly being physically abused, forced to pay the fines, possibly loosing my licence until I can prove my innocence, which would mean I loose my job since I can't work without being able to commute.
2) Make a run for it. I might get away without being beaten up, fined, and I can still go to work and be a productive person in our society tomorrow. The downfall.....if I got caught I would have one extra charge of running from the police. This is a criminal offence which doesn't cost anything and doesn't affect you nearly as much as if you stopped in the first place.
If the punishment fit the crime and if I could be sure the cop pulling me over isn't getting grief from his wife and wanting to lay a beating on someone to take his personal fustration out, I would consider stopping more often.
DAYTONA for mod!
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