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Running from police.
- Thread starter Old Dude
- Start date
AlienTech
Active member
The Gambler’s fallacy is the tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality, they are not. Certain probabilities, such as getting a heads when you flip a (fair) coin, are always the same. The probability of getting a heads is 50%, it does not matter if you’ve gotten tails the last 10 flips. Thinking that the probabilities have changed is a common bias, especially when gambling. For example, I am playing roulette. The last four spins have landed on black, it has to be red this time right? Wrong! The probability of landing on red is still 47.37% (18 red spots divided by 38 total spots). This may sound obvious, but this bias has caused many a gambler to lose money thinking the probabilities have changed.
DAYTONA
Banned
Its amazing I keep reading post after post about the theory of probability When I dont think anyone actually understands it. Not to complicate this thread but using the theory of deductive reasoning would be more useful here. As each time you risk your self by fleeing the rate or percentage of getting caught/crashing are increased. So by not fleeing you eliminate the % by 100% No event can be judged against the other. Playing the lottery weekly gives you a better chance of winning
Andreas
Well-known member
LOL unless you're at Calabogie, most of the tracks on this side of the border that have been around a few years have just as many bumps, if not more than freshly paved roads on the street.. argument fail
Waste my money? You're absolutely right. I'm better off saving my money and starting a collection jar so we can start an education fund for yourself or your child. You're obviously in need of a decent one since your balls are bigger than your brain.
Chances of getting a red 500 times in a row please?
Chances of getting away 500 times in a row?
Good write up, and because he wrote it up on thee internet it must be all gospel truth, right?
Or it may just as easily (likely) be self-serving post-processed pablum.
Well done Sir. Glad someone can actually remember Stats class.
You're right that each time you play, the odds of winning that single game are the same. However, a single even and a series of events are not the same.
If you win a lottery once you'll likely stop playing (it's like getting caught by the police while fleeing). So, it's not that the odds of winning decrease, the way to look at it is that your odds of losing all the time decrease. In other words, the more times you play, the more likely you are to eventually win.
Once the officer has called it in the rider is pretty much done-fore. Not only is the rider trying to outrun a radio they also have to deal with the ego of the officer. I do not mean this in a bad way... If they do not catch you they will get a tonne of ribbing from the boys back at the office, this may be strong motivation.
Also running may mean one of a few things:
-Maybe you are some sort of criminal running from another crime you just committed but has not been called in yet.
-Maybe the bike is stolen.
-Maybe you have outstanding warrants.
Basically if someone is running from a minor ticket there must be a reason...
In the old days running was extremely stupid because the court conviction rates are so low. Easy to beat a ticket why risk running.
I do agree that the new stunt driving laws are downright scary. Too many cases where a lane change or some other common benign maneuver has resulted in the charge. We also had the OPP guy that was suspected of charging people for over 50 that were not going over 50 because he did not like them (there was also some speculation there was a tow truck kickback as well)--not sure if this has been proven in court yet. I can see how the new laws may encourage more people to run because you do not get to go to court before being "convicted". Still stupid but it is easy to understand the possible increase in motivation.
Also running may mean one of a few things:
-Maybe you are some sort of criminal running from another crime you just committed but has not been called in yet.
-Maybe the bike is stolen.
-Maybe you have outstanding warrants.
Basically if someone is running from a minor ticket there must be a reason...
In the old days running was extremely stupid because the court conviction rates are so low. Easy to beat a ticket why risk running.
I do agree that the new stunt driving laws are downright scary. Too many cases where a lane change or some other common benign maneuver has resulted in the charge. We also had the OPP guy that was suspected of charging people for over 50 that were not going over 50 because he did not like them (there was also some speculation there was a tow truck kickback as well)--not sure if this has been proven in court yet. I can see how the new laws may encourage more people to run because you do not get to go to court before being "convicted". Still stupid but it is easy to understand the possible increase in motivation.
DAYTONA
Banned
Waste my money? You're absolutely right. I'm better off saving my money and starting a collection jar so we can start an education fund for yourself or your child. You're obviously in need of a decent one since your balls are bigger than your brain.[/QUOTE]
Last edited by a moderator:
DAYTONA
Banned
I only run if its a 172 charge or 50kph over
DAYTONA
Banned
Easy there ricky Racer dont bite off more than you can chew here
50 over I guess you will know or if it was blatant stunting (wheelie etc.).
The catch I am getting at is the little tire squawk (that maybe someone else did) or lane change they do not like that results in the 172 charge. You don't know until they charge you and convict you on the spot. My concern is that this law creates a run mentality for every minor offense. That is not good.
DAYTONA
Banned
Your right ten years ago I would pull over and lick my wounds. But now its a catastrophic life altering event
DAYTONA
Banned
basic math its all they understand
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