|
|
|
Running from police.
- Thread starter Old Dude
- Start date
Because people who run, don't just run once.
I rode my 10R on the street, I have run in the past, if i had kept riding on the street i probably would have run more... it's only a matter of time before i end up on the short end of that odds stick. It's only a success if all your runs are successful, if you run more than once then it is a series of events. In order to be a success, all events must be successful.... this is when the odds stacking starts to turn from the runners favour. If you run 10 times and got caught once, you still got caught, so you failed.
The more you run, the more likely you are to have an unsuccessful attempt. I know what mutually exclusive means, you don't need to give me examples.
Last edited:
When you run, you have a probability X of getting away and 1-X of getting caught. If you get away, and then run again, then again you expose yourself to the 1-X risk of getting caught.
If you keep doing it, you keep exposing yourself to that risk, and you increase the odds of eventually getting caught. It's like tossing a coin until you get tails. The result of the next toss doesn't depend on the previous one, but overall if you keep tossing, you're almost certainly get tails at some point. In practice it's just a matter when.
+1. It boils down to what you want to know.
If you want to know what the probability of event A happening once, in a case like this it doesn't matter what happened before, the only thing that matters is the probability this one time.
If you want to know the probability of a series of events, you need to multiple each probability times each other probability for each of the events in the series in question.
The probability of flipping heads the next time you flip a coin is 50%, regardless of the number of times the coin was previously flipped.
The probability of flipping heads 5 times in a row is .5*.5*.5*.5*.5 = 0.03 or 3%.
Therefore the probability of continued success statistically decreases with continued events.
If you want to know what the probability of event A happening once, in a case like this it doesn't matter what happened before, the only thing that matters is the probability this one time.
If you want to know the probability of a series of events, you need to multiple each probability times each other probability for each of the events in the series in question.
The probability of flipping heads the next time you flip a coin is 50%, regardless of the number of times the coin was previously flipped.
The probability of flipping heads 5 times in a row is .5*.5*.5*.5*.5 = 0.03 or 3%.
Therefore the probability of continued success statistically decreases with continued events.
DAYTONA
Banned
Thats what I pay the accountant for. You just be happy I can calculate your tip at dennys. ps great breakfast the other day.That's better than not understanding basic math...
None of us are saying that. You fail at logic.
Basic statistics and probability, the more you run the more likely you are to get caught.
None of us are saying that. You fail at logic.
if i keep punching this bear in the face, the risk does not increase that it will maul me
You're risking the lives of others. The only conceivable way that "takes balls" is if you accept to be fully responsible for the consequences. Of course, running from the cops is NOT taking responsibility. You have no balls.
You're the one who fails at logic because I never mentioned any events combined together. I was simply stating each time you run the risk is not affected by past independent runs and none of the runs in the future are afftect by each other. You ran in the past you didn't get caught, NICE! If you plan to run again in the future what you did in the past has zero effect on your chances of getting caught! PERIOD! END OF STORY!
Now go spend all of your savings at the casino "cause the more you play it the more likely you are to win it"
if the odds of winning a coffee in roll up the rim is 1 in 10, and you buy 10 coffees, do your odds increase of winning a coffee increase? Or do the odds stay the same?
Now go spend all of your savings at the casino "cause the more you play it the more likely you are to win it"
I hate to break it to ya, but the more you play... the more likely you are to win.
Remember when i mentioned house limits and the double-up scheme?
AlienTech
Active member
He just doesn't understand that if it's a 50/50 chance of getting caught, it's 50/50 today, 50/50 tomorrow and 50/50 every day thereafter no matter how often you run. How often you run is irrelevant if the "chance" is not a variable.
I really don't know what the "probability" actually is or how it would be determined but I know there are a lot of factors to consider for each rider. Each individual has to determine their threshold of risk beforehand.
I know mine
I would not run with anything less than a 600 SS no run for me on a cruiser but I would run with certain standards like a Z1000 a ZRX1200 or 1250 Bandit. no run for me on an antique. I would not run if I did not know the area and the escape routes. I would not run if I had limited experience.
All those factors have an impact on the "chance of evasion" which number is different for each individual and circumstance. Personally I'd only do it if I felt 90% sure of evasion
I really don't know what the "probability" actually is or how it would be determined but I know there are a lot of factors to consider for each rider. Each individual has to determine their threshold of risk beforehand.
I know mine
I would not run with anything less than a 600 SS
no run for me on a cruiser but I would run with certain standards like a Z1000 a ZRX1200 or 1250 Bandit. no run for me on an antique. I would not run if I did not know the area and the escape routes. I would not run if I had limited experience. All those factors have an impact on the "chance of evasion" which number is different for each individual and circumstance. Personally I'd only do it if I felt 90% sure of evasion
How often you run is the variable...
mind blown
AlienTech
Active member
The gamblers mantra, which is totally false, that's why they have gambling anon for people who believe that foolishness.
It's called "gambling" not "winning" for a reason.
I know a couple in Vegas, he only ever played the megabucks progressive, $20 a month if that. He won $23 Mil... 6 months later his wife played the same slot, won $18 mil.... the chance of winning never changed for anyone playing that slot.
AlienTech
Active member
believe that if you choose but it's not statistically true.
Dude's a total troll. Don't bother.
Gambler's fallacy is that a streak of losses increases the chances of winning next time. Nobody is claiming that.
The larger N is, the more likely you are to win at least once in N consecutive games.
|
|
|
|
|