Running from police.

[Drago]

Using this analogy with running simply states the more times you get away the better the chances of getting caught become in the next run.

I think you're arguing a different point that nobody is disagreeing with. We understand that individual success/fail probability is the same.

What people are saying is, the more times you choose to run, the more likely it is that you will eventually get caught.

So,
Probability(Getting Away) = 90% [let's assume this doesn't change from chase to chase, although it obviously does based on the circumstance]

So, while you have a 90% chance of getting away each time, over 20 chases, your probability is:

P(Getting Away)^20 = (0.90)^20 = 12.2%

Basically, the chance of getting caught OVERALL is greatly increased the more times you run. I'm sure you understand this, but for some reason are arguing the point that each time your chances are of getting away are the same (which is true, but irrelevant).

You only need to get caught once.

 

[caboose56]

In an independent (infinite) pool the probability would remain 1 / 10 cups being a winner.

In a finite pool of cups the probability would increase each time you pull a NON-winning cup.

No, the probability that one or more of the ten cups being a winner is 65.1%.

 

[El Zilcho]

In an independent (infinite) pool the probability would remain 1 / 10 cups being a winner.

Ok, let's assume an infinite pool and probability that any single cup is a winner is 1/10. The event is: you go and buy 10 cups. The question is: what is the probability that at least is a winner.

It's certainly more than 1/10... Don't you agree?

 

[Rossi86]

No, the probability that one or more of the ten cups being a winner is 65.1%.

So you're saying P = 1 - (0.9)^10

 

[Drago]

Ok, let's assume an infinite pool and probability that any single cup is a winner is 1/10. The event is: you go and buy 10 cups. The question is: what is the probability that at least is a winner.

It's certainly more than 1/10... Don't you agree?

Probability of losing each time is 90%.

Probability of losing over 10 times is .9^10 = 34.86%

Probability of winning over 10 times is 1-(Probability of losing) = 65.14%

 

[inreb]

Why are you and caboose combining all the events together? When someone runs they're not thinking of "I'm going to get away from the cops all the time" they're more likely thinking "my chances of getting away THIS TIME is X so I'm gonna run" not "oh crap my last run was succeful so this time or next time I have a higher chance of getting caught"

Maybe because someone miss used the word "probability" in describing the increased chances of getting caught by running multiple times.
Then you came in and described what "probability" really means and how it applies. That's fine.

Running multiple times will increase your chances of getting caught. That's what the kerfuffle is all about.

 

[caboose56]

So you're saying P = 1 - (0.9)^10 = 65.1% care to explain how you got this formula

That VV (and i already wrote that formula earlier)

Probability of losing each time is 90%.

Probability of losing over 10 times is .9^10 = 34.86%

Probability of winning over 10 times is 1-(Probability of losing) = 65.14%

 

[fastar1]

Maybe because someone miss used the word "probability" in describing the increased chances of getting caught by running multiple times.
Then you came in and described what "probability" really means and how it applies. That's fine.

Running multiple times will increase your chances of getting caught. That's what the kerfuffle is all about.

I couldn't have said it better myself.

Oh wait... I did.

:laughing8:

 

[inreb]

I couldn't have said it better myself.

Oh wait... I did.

:laughing8:

Sorry about that I quoted a post from aways back and didn't read right thru because I'm a grade 10 drop out but enough about me. How uuu doin'?

 

[Rossi86]

gfh\

 

[fastar1]

Apology accepted but be careful next time you mess with a high school grad LOL!

 

[El Zilcho]

The larger X becomes the larger the probability of getting away becomes which contradicts what you've been arguing all along!

No. This is actually true. The more you run the more likely you are to get away at least once.

I mean... In a world where you can still ride after being caught...

 

[caboose56]

Using your formula if the chance of getting away (A) is greater than the chance of getting caught (B) in one run. That is A + B = 1 but A > B

For X amount of runs, Probability of getting away P = 1 - B^X

The larger X becomes the larger the probability of getting away becomes which contradicts what you've been arguing all along!

Sigh.

Yes, in your wording A is likely greater than B. Lets try it with some real numbers.
- Let A = 90%. A being a successful run.

Given that, what is the probability of 5, 20 and 50 successful runs.

5: P = 0.9^5 = 0.59 = 59%
20: P = 0.9^20 = 12.2%
50: P = 0.9^50 = 0.5%

The formula you wrote actually gives the probability of not being caught in every attempt.

 

[Rossi86]

gdf

 

[Drago]

Using your formula if the chance of getting away (A) is greater than the chance of getting caught (B) in one run. That is A + B = 1 but A > B

For X amount of runs, Probability of getting away P = 1 - B^X

The larger X becomes the larger the probability of getting away becomes which contradicts what you've been arguing all along!

This is true. The chance of getting away ONCE or MORE increases the more you run. But again, that's irrelevant.


Unfortunately the equation is a bit more complex than P = 1-B^X. This is a simplified method of proving a solution.

The formula for finding the probability of an event occurring exactly number of times (k) given a number of tries with P(Success) = p and P(Failure) = q follows binomial probability as follows:

P(X=k) = n!/[k!(n-k)!] * p^k * q^(n-k)

The probability of an event occurring once or MORE is the sum of the above probability with k=1 to k=n.



Found a good calculator:
http://stattrek.com/Tables/Binomial.aspx

You're looking for P(X=>1) [chance that something will occur one or more times]


Also, when you apply the formula the way you did, you are looking for the probability of getting away over multiple amount of times. If the chance of you getting away any single time is greater than getting caught, then the probability of getting away once over multiple tries approaches infinity (logically you can see this). However, this is irrelevant.

 

[Kokla]

Someones going to line intergrate this entire thread soon....

 

[caboose56]

It doesnt matter if A is smaller or bigger than B

P = 1-B^X will always become bigger as X increases so using your formula it concludes that the probability of getting away always increases or decreases depending on how you chose what variable is what. The probabiliy does not increase, nor decrease for independent events buddy. An independent event is just that an independent event

Bear with me.

It took me a minute to remember why your formula was wrong, i had to go back and add "The formula you wrote actually gives the probability of not being caught in every attempt". You're not using the formula i provided properly.

I'll elaborate.

A = probability of getting away
B = probability of getting caught
A + B = 1

P = A^X
This formula gives the odds of all successful runs X times

P = B^X
This formula gives the odds of being caught on every run X times. Not just being caught on one or some of them, but being caught on every single run.

P = 1-B^X
This formula gives the odds of being caught anywhere between zero and X-1 times.

Note that: 1-B^X does-not-equal A^X

Does that help at all?

 

[JFD]

years ago, it'd just be one car pulling over a bike. Why? cuz that's all it's supposed to take...IE you're smart enough to see cherries and understand what it means. You've likely broken a law and it's time to man up.

Now often they call in a second car to block you in and ensure you don't/can't run. Why? cuz of ppl taking off when the cop gets out, has made them rethink stopping procedures.

It'll only get worse as things escalate due to a lack of respect for law enforcement. I'm not saying respect them all, but respect what they're trying to do, which is keep (in bike cases) ppl alive and well.

Get in the ring to box, guess what? You gotta man up and take a punch sometimes.

Running says much about a person.

 

[inreb]

years ago, it'd just be one car pulling over a bike. Why? cuz that's all it's supposed to take...IE you're smart enough to see cherries and understand what it means. You've likely broken a law and it's time to man up.

Now often they call in a second car to block you in and ensure you don't/can't run. Why? cuz of ppl taking off when the cop gets out, has made them rethink stopping procedures.

It'll only get worse as things escalate due to a lack of respect for law enforcement. I'm not saying respect them all, but respect what they're trying to do, which is keep (in bike cases) ppl alive and well.

Get in the ring to box, guess what? You gotta man up and take a punch sometimes.

Running says much about a person.

I used to think that way until I got a GTAM tune up.

 

[FriendlyFoe]

You guys officially fail at threadjacking. You keep trying and trying but it's still on topic.

Your right ten years ago I would pull over and lick my wounds. But now its a catastrophic life altering event

exactly! All it takes is one cop who's having a bad day to decide that you just made an unsafe lane change (going from the outside of a lane to the outside of the next lane could be deemed as swerving out of control) and he gets to be judge and jury on the side of the road.

A reckless driving charge and it doesn't matter if you win it in court, you're still out thousands and have had your license suspended for 30 days. At that point if you dont think he has your plates running seems like an exceptionally good idea.