The thing with the absolute crazy appreciation is a 40% drop only removes a year or two of appreciation. If you didnt buy in the last two years, your paper worth takes a hit but not much changes. What percentage of dwellings changed hands in the last two years?
We bought 2.5 years ago for 970k. Assuming that we had a 40% drop (and an assumed currently value of 1.6M) I'd be back at...960k.
A 40% drop will not happen, and if it does...hope you've got some cash in your pillows because times will be tight, jobs will be lost, and a WHOLE lot of people are gonna get hurt real bad.
The approach is politically expedient, but it may not make housing cheaper
www.economist.com
Monetizing shelter is a recipe for social disaster. Some countries have a mix of social and private housing that damps bubbles from forming when there are not enough being built.
By Laurence Boone, Boris Cournède, OECD Economics Department; and Marissa Plouin, OECD Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs Following a period when homele…
oecdecoscope.blog
1989 saw housing prices drop 40% in Toronto. View attachment 53405
wonder when the second shoe will drop?
I don't think it will happen -- Toronto prices are not in a bubble as they were back then. For a major turndown in prices, a few things need to happen.
1) Building costs need to fall. Don't count on that. Outside the GTA it can still cost more to build a single family home than it would be worth to sell. In the GTA, you're looking at $250/sq' for a builder quality house, a bit less for townies.
2) Supply must catch up with demand. With 200,000 new people coming to the GTA annually, requires about 90,000 housing starts to keep the current supply/demand ratio. New starts are about 1/2 that so it's actually going in the wrong direction. With constraints on land availability more will be infill and redevelopment which takes longer and increases build costs. No solution insight here.
3) Interest rates go up. Could hit luxury home prices, does nothing to ease demand. It may force more buyers down-market putting further pressure on prices of a basic family home.
The only solutions I see are speeding up building in areas that are already scheduled for construction. Most of the lands that are not built require infrastructure to be laid down first, that will take time and civic gov't focus & planning (not squibbling). There are a few great master planned communities on the go, we need more of these - integrating housing/commerce/industry/transit/recreation/entertainment Releasing gov't lands like the surplus Pickering airport lands, picking up the pace on portlands and other industrial redevelopment lands.
A 40% drop will not happen, and if it does...hope you've got some cash in your pillows because times will be tight, jobs will be lost, and a WHOLE lot of people are gonna get hurt real bad.
Crying poor on a canadian motorcycle forum... paying insane insurance and inflated accessory/parts/service prices on a toy you can only use for 6 months of a year... where's the nearest soup kitchen?
Crying poor on a canadian motorcycle forum... paying insane insurance and inflated accessory/parts/service prices on a toy you can only use for 6 months of a year... where's the nearest soup kitchen?
He has a point though. If one doesn't have an excessive amount of income, riding is a financially asinine choice.
...with that said: I used scholarships and bursaries to pay for school, then used all the loans to ride in my 20s. YOLO, no regrets, was ******* stupid and worth it! Except 30 year old me had to pay that **** off lol
He has a point though. If one doesn't have an excessive amount of income, riding is a financially asinine choice.
...with that said: I used scholarships and nurseries to pay for school, then used all the loans to ride in my 20s. YOLO, no regrets, was ******* stupid and worth it! Except 30 year old me had to pay that **** off lol
It’s not cheap but if someone’s peddling it like a hobby only the upper middle class can afford then I say let’s compare paycheques all around. Not buying it.
Crying poor on a canadian motorcycle forum... paying insane insurance and inflated accessory/parts/service prices on a toy you can only use for 6 months of a year... where's the nearest soup kitchen?
Just please remember my childrens' future when you pick up other expensive hobbies ok? Be a good uncle! Hell if you want one I'm sure I could talk the wife into it.
It can be cheap, if you ride long seasons and can handle weather.
I ride roll about 30,000km a year, about half on a MC the rest in a small car. If I just rolled in a car, my costs would be approx $10,000/year for payments/fuel/LOF/Ins/Plates.
If I rolled 1/2 in a car, the car operating costs drop to $8000. 15,000Km on a modest commuter bike costs me about $3500.
I figure the bike adds $1500/year to my driving costs. If I went to a more frugal bike I could drop that to about $500.
Now, if I drove a pickup as a daily driver the economics change a lot. Riding 1/2 the miles on a modest commuter would save me $1000/year.
It’s not cheap but if someone’s peddling it like a hobby only the upper middle class can afford then I say let’s compare paycheques all around. Not buying it.
I think upper middle class (so around 10% of the total population) is where it makes sense to get into riding due to the cost. General rule of thumb is entertainment should not be greater than 10% of whatever your income is per year. But that's my own rule of thumb...don't know what others do.
Also, w/o getting into actual income, I'm pretty sure there are a few riders here between the $100k to $900k income range...and I have an idea of who they are <_<
Toronto not in a bubble....many think you wrong...the disconnect between median income ( peanuts in Canada ) and median house prices/montly costs is so far out of wack the pop will be rather dire.
Canadian real estate is now some of the most expensive in the world. Home prices across the country, not in pricey hubs, are now comically overvalued. At this point, not even a major housing crash can restore affordability. Many think this is pandemic-related, but overvaluation has long been a...
Toronto not in a bubble....many think you wrong...the disconnect between median income ( peanuts in Canada ) and median house prices/montly costs is so far out of wack the pop will be rather dire.
Canadian real estate is now some of the most expensive in the world. Home prices across the country, not in pricey hubs, are now comically overvalued. At this point, not even a major housing crash can restore affordability. Many think this is pandemic-related, but overvaluation has long been a...
I wouldn't place much stock un a UBS report on Toronto. From 100,000 feet up, I'd say this is is an interesting view, but they are looking at very simplistically. Few of the cities on the list are expanding population faster than housing starts.
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