Cheaper housing on the horizon?

[MacDoc]

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Bubbles are pretty simple in essence or we could call it collective stupidity.
NFT anyone?

The history of housing bubbles - ABC listen

Housing bubbles have a tendency to burst—look no further than the experiences of Ireland, Spain and the United States in recent years—and the aftermath can be serious; the US collapse plunged the world into economic crisis. So is there a house price bubble in Australia’s capital cities? Stan...

www.abc.net.au

Manitoba History: The Great Winnipeg Boom

Winnipeg's crazy real estate boom in the early 1880s.

www.mhs.mb.ca

If I recall some of those lots didn't finally sell til a century later,

 

[xfactor]

In 1957, economist Paul Samuelson wrote:
"Every bubble is someday pricked. But I have long been struck by the fact, and puzzled by it too, that in all the arsenal of economic theory we have absolutely no way of predicting how long [a bubble] will last. To say that prices will fall back to earth after they reach ridiculous heights represents a safe but empty prediction. Why do some manias end when prices have become ridiculous by 10 per cent, while others persist until they are ridiculous to the tune of hundreds of per cent?"

Even Isaac Newton lost all his riches in the South Sea bubble and that man invented Calculus. So, I don't really care what UBS or any other hack says. If you're going to predict, then tell me when? If not, then it's just as some random jackass telling me everyday that I'm going to die...eventually (gee thx UBS). Also, I liked them better when they were UBS Warburg doing ****** LIBOR manipulation and not able to control their rogue traders.

Here is the actual report: UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2021

Take a look at their methodology on page 29 and tell me if you agree with their 5 inputs to get their weighted avg.

A better telling is the 5 year t-bond now, take a look and see what you can draw from that, it's very telling.
Also a better indicator on things, GDP forecast (Jan 22): https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/mpr-2022-01-26.pdf
Pay attention to page 14.
Time in market vs timing the market, etc etc etc...Ride fast and ride hard.

 

[MacDoc]

Identifying a bubble
Fair-valued (–0.5 to 0.5)
•••
Change vs. 2020
Price bubbles are a recurring phenomenon in property markets. The term “bubble” refers to a substantial and sustained mispric- ing of an asset, the existence of which cannot be proved unless it bursts. But historical data reveals patterns of property market excesses. Typical signs include a decoupling of prices from local incomes and rents, and imbalances in the real economy, such
as excessive lending and construction activity. The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index gauges the risk of a property bubble on the basis of such patterns. The index does not predict whether and when a correction will set in. A change in macroeconomic momentum, a shift in investor sentiment or a major supply increase could trigger a decline in house prices.

Can't tell you when a combination of interest rates and a downturn in the job market to knockout the second income would likely do it.
Vancouver took a spin down when they taxed foreign investment but that was probably just worked around and resumed under a different guise ...students buying houses...that's what our rental in Mississauga,was...somewhat clueless 20 year old Chinese girl owning a 4 bedroom N of the 403 and up Winston Churchill.

Our current place is not bad rent considering size and location and additional finished basement living quarters that a staff occupies in return for extra hours. Thing is a sieve tho so heating a bear.
$3300 a month, 2 car garage, 2 extra parking spaces in drive way, dual master ensuites upstairs and two more good size bedrooms. plus big bedroom and living space in full basement with walkout.

This landlord, like a couple others we had was in the business of providing shelter for a reasonable price and not for flipping. Good maintenance, free snow removable the first year. DIsappointed I had little time in it as I really like the area.
Incomes matched to rental and mortgage costs 30-40% of income is the only way forward I can see and a delay of 10 years from cashing out without a big capital gains hit ( 20% ). ( ie taxed 90% of gains first year dropping 10% per year, so capital gains in year 10 is 10% and zero for subsequent years held )
Flippers in Switzerland get hit big time if they try multiple frequent turns and get classed for business income which kicks in the higher taxation rate tho they do get some additional write offs.

What next ...privatize water.

 

[mimico_polak]

What next ...privatize water.

Nestle would love this and have tried arguing that water should not be a basic right. Horrible company.

I agree with the rest of your post. I would just change the 10 year mark down to 5 because stuff does happen and I feel 5 years is a reasonable time for a family to live in a home.

 

[nobbie48]

Land availability is certainly a problem however even free land doesn't make a house cheap. A small townhouse is running $220-250/sq to build + another $30K in soft costs. If I got an acre of land for $60K on small-town Ontario and built 6 budget townhouses, I'd have to sell them for $400K.

If you bought a house in Markham, knocked it down, and put up 3x2 stacked budget condos of 1000sq', you would need to get $800K each.

Your numbers aren't all that off from what someone told me a half century ago, back when the living part of a condo was bigger than the parking spot for a pair of cars. It costs almost as much to build a condo / apartment as if does a detached house. The land cost per unit is the killer. Of course now you can get into the market with a 400 SF unit.

 

[nobbie48]

Where you say developers, you should say developers/government. They all want their money today and to hell with the ponzi scheme that will collapse in the future.

EOL condos have always interested me. I've never seen one go through the process (either redevelopment, rebuilding or dissolution).

Aaaah the future. My MPP had a town hall meeting by phone and one topic was "How can we better help today's seniors".

If you really think about it, the question is a joke.

Answer: Bankrupt our future by spending countless billions and billions to build subsidized housing, LTC, bribing nurses to come back, offering massive incentives to get more people into nursing and of course the mandatory massive increase of government staffers to turn the wheels and print the cheques.

All of this has to happen before the next election so the incumbents can claim the credit. Unlimited overtime for everyone. We are screwed by the "Four years to re-election" mentality of the politicians.

I didn't get to embarrass my MPP by saying she's flogging a dead horse. We have to think about what we can do to prevent the problem for the next herd of seniors. They will have it far worse, exponentially far worse, if we try to over accommodate today's seniors.

 

[nobbie48]

this is a very western way of thinking.
Plan for the next day/week/quarter. Everything is so short sighted, and self serving

The eastern way is trying to think long term, plan for the next 100 years, and try to 'groupthink'
its is a homogeneous way of thinking...whats good for the herd/fatherland.

This kind of thinking usually triggers the average western boomer


Maybe I've just been watching too much cobra kai.

My wife mentioned leaving stuff to the children to a Chinese friend. She replied we leave it to the grandchildren, Dynasty building.

 

[nobbie48]

Wrong. the value of the house isnt the house. Its the land it sits on.
Seen plenty of bidding wars over shitholes.
People putting in offers verbally on the phone before even seeing the house.

A buddy's place. How many square feet of land in XXX XXX postal code.

 

[nobbie48]

How's the xr in the snow? I assume it sucks.

I rode a 125 cc Yamaha. Heavy boots and feet on the ground like dirt tracking. No steel sole though.

 

[nobbie48]

I think upper middle class (so around 10% of the total population) is where it makes sense to get into riding due to the cost. General rule of thumb is entertainment should not be greater than 10% of whatever your income is per year. But that's my own rule of thumb...don't know what others do.

Also, w/o getting into actual income, I'm pretty sure there are a few riders here between the $100k to $900k income range...and I have an idea of who they are <_<

That doesn't work for the low incomers. Rice and beans, even a burger combo can crash their budget.

One has to look at disposable income after housing and food. Bezoes could spend 90% on toys (Recent $500 M yacht).

 

[crankcall]

We don’t need cheaper housing , a bunch of retards have proven you can live in a kenworth for 3 weeks as a family of 4 , no running water .
These homeless folks that want in just need to set their sights low enough .


Sent from my iPhone using GTAMotorcycle.com

 

[GreyGhost]

Someone is going to get rich here and it sure as hell isn't homeowners. The old swap valuable GTA greenspace for a protected swamp far away that is almost worthless.

Is this the best thread? I thought there was a more recent one but this one seems applicable too.

Ontario proposes to cut Greenbelt land for homes, add land elsewhere

The aim is to build at least 50,000 homes on those lands in service of the government's target of building 1.5 million homes in 10 years.

toronto.citynews.ca

Today, Clark is announcing a 30-day consultation on removing about 7,400 acres from the Greenbelt over 15 different areas and if that proceeds, landowners will be expected to develop housing plans quickly.

The aim is to build at least 50,000 homes on those lands in service of the government’s target of building 1.5 million homes in 10 years.

Clark says he is also proposing to add 9,400 acres to the Greenbelt elsewhere, so when factoring in the land that would be removed, the Greenbelt would grow in size by 2,000 acres.

 

[Mad Mike]

Someone is going to get rich here and it sure as hell isn't homeowners. The old swap valuable GTA greenspace for a protected swamp far away that is almost worthless.

Is this the best thread? I thought there was a more recent one but this one seems applicable too.

Ontario proposes to cut Greenbelt land for homes, add land elsewhere

The aim is to build at least 50,000 homes on those lands in service of the government's target of building 1.5 million homes in 10 years.

toronto.citynews.ca

Today, Clark is announcing a 30-day consultation on removing about 7,400 acres from the Greenbelt over 15 different areas and if that proceeds, landowners will be expected to develop housing plans quickly.

The aim is to build at least 50,000 homes on those lands in service of the government’s target of building 1.5 million homes in 10 years.

Clark says he is also proposing to add 9,400 acres to the Greenbelt elsewhere, so when factoring in the land that would be removed, the Greenbelt would grow in size by 2,000 acres.

I'm OK with that. Ontario is 95% wilderness, swapping lands that are in an urban zone for rural lands seems like a practical way to go.

 

[DownUnder]

I'm OK with that. Ontario is 95% wilderness, swapping lands that are in an urban zone for rural lands seems like a practical way to go.

Bet all his buddies get to see the proposed map before the general public and end up buying it all up.

 

[FullMotoJacket]

I'm OK with that. Ontario is 95% wilderness, swapping lands that are in an urban zone for rural lands seems like a practical way to go.

So you're ok with swapping out the Niagara Escarpment for some swampland north of Oshawa.

 

[GreyGhost]

Bet all his buddies get to see the proposed map before the general public and end up buying it all up.

It's already all optioned or bought. Buddies will help him draw the map. You own a parcel between two donors and it's important to preserve greenspace so voila, your parcel is frozen.

 

[Wingboy]

So you're ok with swapping out the Niagara Escarpment for some swampland north of Oshawa.

A lot of the escarpment has been designated a bioreserve to protect it from limestone mining. A precedent like Ford's is dangerous.
We need to protect our greenbelt.
My daughter with good info.

 

[FullMotoJacket]

A lot of the escarpment has been designated a bioreserve to protect it from limestone mining. A precedent like Ford's is dangerous.
We need to protect our greenbelt.

I'm grasping at how people can't understand this.

 

[Mad Mike]

So you're ok with swapping out the Niagara Escarpment for some swampland north of Oshawa.

I didn't say that. The existing Greenbelt is 2 million acres, about 1/3 are biologically sensitive protected lands, 2/3rds 1.4m acres) are not, they were arbitrarily included to meet the 2005 2m acre goal, they could gave been in or out at the time lines were drawn. . Swapping theses lands would be changing 4 quarters for a dollar.

GTA needs more affordable housing, converting a sliver of land that is adjacent to existing infrastructure ( around Milton or the Pickering airport site ) to meet housing and economic needs of Ontario seems practical. What are we talking about, .005% conversion?

Save the salamanders and salmon.

 

[Wingboy]

I'm grasping at how people can't understand this.

Silly hippies in the past in misguided, uneducated tree hugging fests have given the educated people a bad wrap. They all get painted with the same brush.

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