I do not think it will happen. At this point, I don't even think it would be constructive. This version is so contagious that it's likely to affect everyone in the province over the next few weeks. We cannot truly "lock down" the way China can, and anything short of that is evidently insufficient to control spread ... and sooner or later, you have to come out of lockdown and *then* have the rampant infection wave.
It appears that most countries have abandoned trying to keep track of cases with any degree of accuracy. (Our reported number of cases definitely have no connection with reality, UK same, USA same, etc.) The Scandinavian countries probably have the best chance of reflecting reality:
- Norway had a big infection spike from mid-Jan to mid-March that dwarfed all previous case numbers, and it has since subsided:
Norway COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
- Denmark same pattern but a couple weeks earlier:
Denmark COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
- Finland same general pattern although it looks like it started earlier and is still continuing:
Finland COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
- Sweden similar but to me it looks like Sweden abruptly stopped testing in early February. But, the number of deaths has been going down quickly.
Sweden COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Our big infection spike started Jan to early Feb ... if the above patterns hold, we should be almost through it.