I see where your mix-up is. You are inferring that the "positivity rate" implies that this is the number of people currently infected in the province. It doesn't. It merely indicates the percentage of tests that came back positive. Most people that are getting tested, are doing so for a reason, i.e. they feel sick ... or maybe it's because they need to do the test for some other purpose such as to prove they're not sick before travelling. Either way, it's not representative of the population as a whole, and especially cannot be directly compared between jurisdictions who may have different testing volumes available, different criteria for sending someone to get a test, etc.
|
|
|
Elephant in the Covid room
- Thread starter Wingboy
- Start date
- Status
I see where your mix-up is. You are inferring that the "positivity rate" implies that this is the number of people currently infected in the province. It doesn't. It merely indicates the percentage of tests that came back positive. Most people that are getting tested, are doing so for a reason, i.e. they feel sick ... or maybe it's because they need to do the test for some other purpose such as to prove they're not sick before travelling. Either way, it's not representative of the population as a whole, and especially cannot be directly compared between jurisdictions who may have different testing volumes available, different criteria for sending someone to get a test, etc.
Are they vaccinated or just have one shot....big difference. They won’t be fully vaccinated anytime soon and by that I mean the proper 2 doses that are needed, don’t fall for the number of vaccinations because the vast majority haven’t had a second shot to actually give them proper immunity . Many are getting the second shot cancelled or delayed for months
Which means the positivity rate is higher due to asymptomatic people who like you said won’t get tested cause they feel fine...so I’m not sure we are beating Texas by any metric..except in the mind of murica haters
You cant draw that conclusion. You (or I) have little idea what the asymptomatic rate is. Based on the random testing they did in schools, it appears to be quite low in children. Dont know if that same percentage applies to adults.
To get the current percent positivity in the population, you need to randomly sample and see what you find.
Ontario reports more than 3,600 new COVID-19 cases as positivity rate crosses 10 per cent
More than 3,600 new COVID-19 infections were found across Ontario as health officials reported the highest positivity rate since last April.
toronto.ctvnews.ca
according to this the positivity rate was over 10 percent last Tuesday
Right, it's well known that the "actual number of infections" is higher than the "actual number of cases".
When someone gets tested for whatever reason and that test associated with that person's health-card number comes back positive, they are then a "case", and are forever logged as such as part of the cumulative total. In the course of recovering, they may be tested two or three more times, and some of those might still show positive, those would be part of that "test positivity" total but because they've already been recorded as a "case", they're already part of the cumulative total and don't get added again. Everyone knows that we are missing asymptomatic cases, and everyone knows that early in the pandemic, testing (worldwide) was completely inadequate for the task at hand, so everyone knows that the real number of infections is greater than the officially logged cumulative number of cases. But these affect everyone the world over.
Now, in the developed world, which have advanced health-care systems, one would hope that the testing regimens are capturing most of the actual "sick" cases, and the percentage asymptomatic is probably consistent (variants aside, it's the same disease).
When someone gets tested for whatever reason and that test associated with that person's health-card number comes back positive, they are then a "case", and are forever logged as such as part of the cumulative total. In the course of recovering, they may be tested two or three more times, and some of those might still show positive, those would be part of that "test positivity" total but because they've already been recorded as a "case", they're already part of the cumulative total and don't get added again. Everyone knows that we are missing asymptomatic cases, and everyone knows that early in the pandemic, testing (worldwide) was completely inadequate for the task at hand, so everyone knows that the real number of infections is greater than the officially logged cumulative number of cases. But these affect everyone the world over.
Now, in the developed world, which have advanced health-care systems, one would hope that the testing regimens are capturing most of the actual "sick" cases, and the percentage asymptomatic is probably consistent (variants aside, it's the same disease).
it’s been common sense from the beginning that the positivity rate is higher due to asymptomatic cases....Fauci and many others have said it ,,,it’s just logical....see BrianP post above
I didn't get numbers on suicides but murder is up a bit in Toronto by four deaths, not exactly a shootout. Other crimes are up and down.
www.toronto.com
Murders and shootings in Toronto increasing despite coronavirus crisis
Data shared after Dr. Paul Morgan identified as latest homicide victim
Much like the flu, we're never going to reach perfect immunity that will make it go away...at least not for a few years likely, if we're lucky.
The goal is to achieve a status where despite covid possibly becoming endemic, it's effect is little to nothing for the greater majority of the population. If Covid is going to be around for years to come, it's better if it's symptoms are little to nothing for the majority of the population versus putting a huge percentage of people in the hospital. In this goal, 1 shot DOES matter. A lot. Because it reduces the risk of severe illness that requires hospitalization virtually 100% across all currently approved vaccinations. And 1 shot reduces the risk of even contracting by a fairly significant margin as well - I'm 2 weeks post-shot Moderna as of tomorrow and statistically I'm now 80% less likely to even contract covid, and 100% less likely to end up in the hospital if I did anyways.
Nope. More people are definitely positive but the percentage of positive people is probably lower. Unless you think that more than 8.2% are positive and asymptomatic which doesnt play out when you look at the case rates.
Roadghost
Well-known member
Once again Canadians have to go to foreign news services to get the truth about Trudeau.
www.express.co.uk
Canada Covid horror: Anger at Trudeau as variant ‘out of control'
CANADIAN Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is under growing pressure over the continued surge in coronavirus cases, as a leading epidemiologist said he warned Covid-19 was "already burning out of control".
www.express.co.uk
If COVID will be around ? You do realize we have eradicated all of one virus from the planet in human history...small pox ...that’s it. This will definitely be around.which makes all this lockdown shutdown nonsense even more stupid.
1 shot matters short term not long term and even the doctors and vaccine makers offer no guarantee how long immunity lasts even with 2 shots .
On another note I have 2 employees in the hospital now , both haven’t left the house in a year and are terrified . They both went to get vaccinated together and both got COVID a few days later. Looks like the vaccination sites could be super spreaders too .
“More people are definitely positive but the percentage of positive people is probably lower“You want to edit that? That makes no sense
Roadghost
Well-known member
I didn't get numbers on suicides but murder is up a bit in Toronto by four deaths, not exactly a shootout. Other crimes are up and down.
Murders and shootings in Toronto increasing despite coronavirus crisis
Data shared after Dr. Paul Morgan identified as latest homicide victim
This indicates just how deep the gun smuggling network is from the U.S. to Canada. The border is closed, people are theoretically unable to come across except on business, but Toronto is still floating in smuggled guns.
Once again ... I point out that the UK is also on a delayed-second-shot strategy (3 months, in their case), and most people there have not received their second dose.
But ...
You can look up their vaccination numbers here: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research
See the little downward kink in their total number with at least one dose starting in late March / early April? That's because people started getting their second vaccinations in significant numbers (and they're having a Moderna supply disruption just like we are ... same source).
Now ... Compare that to their daily new cases here: United Kingdom COVID: 4,385,938 Cases and 127,260 Deaths - Worldometer
See how it peaks on 8th January and starts plummeting? The big initial drop is partly due to lockdown, but also because they had started vaccinating people in care homes and the like in mid December (before the chart starts). You will note that the daily new cases plummeted long before significant numbers of people started getting their second doses.
By the way, their massive infection spike in December-January was 90% B.1.1.7 variant, which is also about 70% of our cases.
We will be fine. We're just not fine YET.
A year off of gun smuggling isn’t going to change the amount of guns on the streets that much
Thanks. I still doubt we will have 2 shot mass vaccinations anytime soon. Canda is useless with getting small projects done let alone big projects .
Nope. They test ~60,000 people per day and ~8.2% of those are positive (~4900). There is likely a percentage of the population that is asymptomatic positive. Based on the testing in schools, less than 1% (14,000 max). That puts overall positivity at approximately (4900+14000)/14000000=1.35% .
Have you had Polio, Measles Mumps, or Rubella? No? Didn't think so. Yeah, they're still around, but vaccinations have pretty much eliminated them despite the fact I'm sure you will want to debate the minutiae of such.
So we come full circle again to my question you still dance around and refuse to answer. Which of the 2 do you propose?
#1 - Give up, reopen everything and "Get back to normal" and let the hospital system collapse.
Or...
#2 - Let people who contract covid suffocate to death at home to not cause the hospital system to collapse.
A simple #1 or #2 answer will suffice.
We're GETTING it done. It's not a matter of if....it's happening in front of our eyes.
ifiddles
Well-known member
how about a combination of things: (and I'm sure most on here will disagree with me, but the longer this goes, the more I'm changing my mind about things)
1. vaccinate people who cannot work from home immediately...once the LTC (staff/residents) and health care workers were done, they should've started on this segment instead of seniors over 60 who sit at home and don't go to work (think of the meme floating around right now of a 55 year old man, WFH, gets vaccinated vs the 35 year old man, working in a factory who is ineligible)
2. keep numbers low for stores (ie: 25% of capacity) but allow the smaller businesses to reopen (why can't a hair salon have 1-2 clients instead of 5-6? as an example) and keep curb side pickup going
3. outdoor activities should be kept open, but again, put a limit (ie: only so many groups on a golf course at once and stagger their start time by a larger amount)
4. give paid sick days to those who don't have any so that in the event that they are sick and need to stay home, they can do so
suicides, depression, abuse (spousal/child), opioid/drug abuse, alcoholism (as we've seen on the other thread), etc. are all on the rise, however no one is talking about these things...the mortality rate for Covid is 2% and in one way, I'm of the mind that people should be allowed to live a 'normal' life and those that are at risk, can stay home
sorry, just ranting...sick and tired of all this b.s....
1. vaccinate people who cannot work from home immediately...once the LTC (staff/residents) and health care workers were done, they should've started on this segment instead of seniors over 60 who sit at home and don't go to work (think of the meme floating around right now of a 55 year old man, WFH, gets vaccinated vs the 35 year old man, working in a factory who is ineligible)
2. keep numbers low for stores (ie: 25% of capacity) but allow the smaller businesses to reopen (why can't a hair salon have 1-2 clients instead of 5-6? as an example) and keep curb side pickup going
3. outdoor activities should be kept open, but again, put a limit (ie: only so many groups on a golf course at once and stagger their start time by a larger amount)
4. give paid sick days to those who don't have any so that in the event that they are sick and need to stay home, they can do so
suicides, depression, abuse (spousal/child), opioid/drug abuse, alcoholism (as we've seen on the other thread), etc. are all on the rise, however no one is talking about these things...the mortality rate for Covid is 2% and in one way, I'm of the mind that people should be allowed to live a 'normal' life and those that are at risk, can stay home
sorry, just ranting...sick and tired of all this b.s....
- Status
|
|
|
|
|