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vaccine poll

Vaccinated?

  • Yes...Pfizer or Moderna

    Votes: 82 58.6%

  • Yes...Astra Zeneca or J&J

    Votes: 26 18.6%

  • not yet but soon

    Votes: 11 7.9%

  • not booking it yet but I might get it eventually

    Votes: 11 7.9%

  • not going to get vaccinated

    Votes: 13 9.3%
  • Total voters
    140
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The holiday weekend throws a spanner into the works. Tests, number of cases, even number of people in hospital. It would not surprise me one bit if the numbers reported Wednesday reflect a catch-up.

The other thing is that evidently last week's large vaccine shipment was a pull-ahead from this week ... that may start impacting vaccination numbers later in the week.

Expect to start hearing about vaccination clinics no longer being booked solid and backlogged over the next couple of weeks, as supply catches up with demand. (News media will probably be going into freak-out mode about it - but it is expected.) The big question is when we get to 70% coverage of eligible adults which is the criteria for going to the next phase. The UK just crossed that, which in their case corresponded to about 55% of the total population. We're almost there, at around 52% of total population, and Toronto was saying today that they've got 65% of eligible adults covered.

Other provinces were announcing today that they're planning to go into the second-dose phase in June, several weeks earlier than originally anticipated. That's sure to happen here, too. We are sure to run out of people to give first doses to at some point in June, even if uptake is higher than expected.
 
Just got an email from the pharmacy that I’ll be eligible for my second AZ jab earlier. About 10-12 weeks from original date (April 20) depending on availability.

Looking forward to it.
 
Not really, lack of testing asymptomatic individuals is a problem.

Checking for antibodies in random blood samples they found 90% of cases had not been reported.

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, fewer than 10% of the US adult population formed antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, and fewer than 10% of those with antibodies were diagnosed.
Click to expand...

www.thelancet.com

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in a large nationwide sample of patients on dialysis in the USA: a cross-sectional study

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, fewer than 10% of the US adult population formed antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, and fewer than 10% of those with antibodies were diagnosed. Public health efforts to limit SARS-CoV-2 spread need to especially target racial and ethnic minority and...
www.thelancet.com

UK found in one study 86% are asymptomatic.

The pilot study sampled 36,061 people living in England, Wales and Northern Ireland who were tested between April 26 and June 27.

Of the 115 with a positive result, only 16 reported symptoms, with 99 not reporting any specific symptoms on the day of the test. Moreover, 142 people who reported symptoms on the day of the test did not test positive for COVID-19, vastly outnumbering those who tested positive.
Click to expand...

www.reuters.com

No symptoms for 86% of lockdown COVID cases, UK study says

People who were asymptomatic accounted for 86% of the people who tested positive for COVID-19 in a UK sample population during lockdown, a study showed on Thursday, meaning the current policy of testing people with symptoms might miss many cases.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

A New York study found 82-87% were asymptomatic.

Using a model that incorporates daily testing information fit to the case and serology data from New York City, we show that the proportion of symptomatic cases is low, ranging from 13 to 18%, and that the reproductive number may be larger than often assumed.
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www.pnas.org

Quantifying asymptomatic infection and transmission of COVID-19 in New York City using observed cases, serology, and testing capacity

As health officials face another wave of COVID-19, they require estimates of the proportion of infected cases that develop symptoms, and the extent to which symptomatic and asymptomatic cases contribute to community transmission. Recent asymptomatic testing guidelines are ambiguous. Using an...
www.pnas.org www.pnas.org

In Iceland they found 50% of people getting tested positive had no symptoms.

Some of the revelations have been stark. Although fewer than 1% of the tests came back positive for the virus, the company's founder Dr. Kári Stefánsson told CNN that around 50% of those who tested positive said they were asymptomatic, confirming multiple studies that show that asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic, people have played an important role in spreading the virus.
Click to expand...

www.cnn.com

Iceland lab's testing suggests 50% of coronavirus cases have no symptoms

There's a lot about Iceland that other countries could envy: Its spectacular natural surroundings, its place among the world's happiest countries, and, now, its large-scale testing for the novel coronavirus, which could influence how the world understands the outbreak.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

Even on the Diamond Princess with an overall older then normal population, of the 634 who tested positive, 328 were asymptomatic during the cruise. That's an asymptomatic rate of 52%.

So take that Lancet article for example. What it really means, that 10% of a randomly selected population had antibodies. End of July 2020 the US was officially at 3 million cases. But the real number was likely 38 million cases.

Today the US is officially at 33 million cases, but it's likely between 165 to 330 million people. Which is why Texas and other states that opened before getting high enough vaccination rates managed to avoid a 3rd wave.

So yes, asymptomatic testing is important.
 
Dimitri said:
So yes, asymptomatic testing is important.
Click to expand...

Getting shots in arms is more important.

At some point we can test ourselves silly and debate the minutiae of positive vs not, symptomatic vs asymptomatic, phantom percentages, etc etc. At this stage in the vaccination drive however there's an argument to be made that eventually the numbers of raw infections and such won't matter as much anymore so long as actual people getting sick enough that they're going to the hospital and/or dying becomes extremely low and the hospital system can handle it.

Covid is likely here to stay, but 2 years from now we won't be seeing tens of thousands of tests done every day and numbers being reported endlessly. It'll be like the flu, except statistically still likely deadlier unless we develop treatments as opposed to relying on vaccination alone. Those who choose to not protect themselves will take the risk of ending up one of the almost certainly continuing case numbers in the years ahead if they slip through the cracks if we don't reach true herd immunity. But it's likely endemic at this point.
 
I think an effective treatment is likey before any hope of eradication.

If one good thing will come of Covid it's that science has made leaps and bounds progress on learning about coronavirus based infections and how to manage/treat them. Given the risk of a new strain of Covid19 coming along that can evade the current vaccines I'm positive the work on a treatment is still full speed ahead.

If we're lucky it'll also treat other Coronavirus based infections at the same time.
 
Hope it's the vaccines working indeed, as it seems like rules compliance is at the lowest as well.
 
Vaccines go brrrrr.
 
UK Number of daily new deaths attributed to covid19 for 1 June 2021: 0.

Finally. It has been a long time. There's light at the end of the tunnel.

www.worldometers.info

United Kingdom COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United Kingdom Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
 
Encouraging results from the vote. Pfizer here and waiting for the second. Hopefully we can leave the country soon and vacation somewhere wet 💦
 
I have to say I’m impressed with how strong the demand remains for shots even in with us surpassing 70% (!) of adults with their first shot now.

I just hope that light at the end of the tunnel isn’t a train in the form of b1.617.
 
Another news item: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research

On the basis of number of people with at least one dose, we have pulled level with the UK, meaning out of large countries (population in the millions), we are second in the world behind Israel. (Obviously we still have work to do, in terms of getting that second dose out ... but that's starting in earnest, and evidence from infection numbers indicates that the first dose is quite effective on its own, the big question being that B.1.617.2 variant.)
 
Baggsy said:
Long gone are the days when they could just kidnap orphans off the street, inject them, and then check back later to see if they survived.
Click to expand...

Most here might find that scenario unreal, but you look at those indigenous schools with the unmarked graves and you have to wonder. Personally I found the news of those mass burials devastating.
 
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