I had no real idea of markup on HVAC , not my industry , till a friend working at a major brands distribution center offered me a new AC unit at “cost” . It was less than half what I had been quoted for an identical unit .
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It's a tricky business.
Consumers might buy a furnace once or twice in a lifetime -- they are reliable beasts that if maintained can go decades on basic maintenance and minor repairs -- so when faced with an immediate need for heat, they can get trapped into an expensive decision.
Furnace makers layer branding, selling the same items under different brands to different dealers. For example, Lennox sells furnaces under Lennox brand to a closed dealer network at higher prices than the same Ducane-branded furnaces made available to anyone through wholesale distributors.
There are some dirty tricks furnace contractors pull, particularly on elderly and vulnerable homeowners. A tech who finds a 15+ year old furnace will pickup $250 for a referral that ends up in a sale, and he also gets paid for the service call without performing any work! Many of these asshats will red tag a perfectly good furnace that needs a simple repair just to collect their kickback. You know when this is happening to you if the tech can get a 'Manager' to your home in 15 minutes to help you get the heat back on. The "Manager" is a sales rep who's likely standing by waiting for the tech to call.
This has happened to me 4 times in the last 10 years with Enercare, most recently 2 weeks ago.
A modern 97% efficient 70,000 BTU 2-stage furnace for a modern 2,400sq' house costs the dealer $1200. $100 for tin, electrical & plumbing parts, then another $300 for labor and overhead of a service tech doing the installation. So, all in costs are about $1600 for a furnace.
If you buy that through Enercare or a full-service 'Home Comfort' firm, they will quote you around $6000+ and charge up to $1000 for vent installation or upgrades if they are needed - you furniture will be installed tomorrow. If you buy that furnace through a Costco using one of their approved vendors it will cost $3,800 for the same furnace, it will be installed waiting 48 hours. If you go directly to a mom-and-pop dealer, expect to pay about the same, maybe $3500 including vent installation and upgrade. If you call a licensed technician flogging side hustles on Kijiji -- $1200 for the furnace, whatever it costs for the vent upgrade parts, and $500 to install - installation after hours or weekends.
So, depending on where you buy and who you are prepared to trust, the same good quality furnace replacement can cost you anywhere between $2000-$7000.