*Edit corrected some estimates
Some Number Crunching Below:
Home: $300k (typical suburban cookie cutter 2000 sq ft) (1998), 0 down, 40 years amm period.
Total payments = ~$500k (by 2038) (
adjusted for 1198 money, more like ~$400k (the interest on $300k is paid off mostly over the first 20 years and thus there is some depreciation in the value of the dollar when making payments 20 years (2018) into a mortgage.
Home sold at retirement time (2038): $800k (older home by then - currently (2013) going for high $400s). $500k in hand by 2038. Seems like you more than doubled your money don't it?
Toss in the upkeep required over 40 years...safe to guestimate $100k
Property tax ran about $3.5k x 40 yrs = ~$120k
Bills for a large house over a small apartment roughly $300/m = $3.5k x 40 = ~$120k
So that $500k (that hasn't been inflation adjusted) has subtracted from it a further ($120k + $120k + $100k) = ~$160k, but that doesn't consider the additional $200k spent in interest payments!
Totoal profit then? = $160k - $200k = $-40k.
That's right after all is said an done the home owner nets losses of $40k by the end of the 40 year period.
Total spend = $300 (initial 1998 loan) + $200k (interest by 2018) + $100k (1 major reno at end of life to prepare for resale) + $120k (property tax) + $120k (bills above that of renting) =
$840k
Do any of you think you can flip a 1998 Mississauga 2000 sq ft house in 20 years for around $900k?!?! Sounds impressive no? Well yes and no...you CAN do it, but you CAN'T do much better. So congrats you may just break even. Flipping a $900k home bought for $300k 40 years earlier is only a realistic growth rate of 2.7%!!!!!! Pretty much inflation.
Still think you came out a bandit?!?! Just to give you an idea of what making out like a bandit looks like....a value growth of say 5% to outstrip an average inflation of 2.5% will mean you need to flip a $600k home (today) for $4.2 MILLION!!!!!! in 40 years. While the home will actually be valued at $1.6 Million when adjusted for inflation. Add to that projected property taxes $336k + bills $336k + major reno at end of life of house $278 ($100k in todays money) = $950k in maintenance and bills
So Note: You did not double your money! So when you say to people "I bought for $500k and sold for a mill", in actually you did not. You likely just broke even. You could have rented and treated your apartment as a home (i.e. put aside pretend money for renos and pretend property tax and pretend higher bills)....or you could have diverted a portion of that money to lifestyle choices such as travel or continued education or whatever.
Others choose to sink that money into their home, as they may be more homely in nature in terms of their lifestyle. It's not they are house poor either, they just have different priorities.
Let's do a renters calc....I'm gonna grab a typical 2bd 900 sq ft apartment from central Mississauga as an example...
15 years ago they were renting for $800 to $1000 per mo. Now they go for $1800. Let's use today's values or close to it for a 40 year average
So. $2000 x 12 x 40 = $960,000.
I gotta say....looks like the home owner comes out on top, having spent $840k over the same period and they were able to enjoy a much better standard of accommodation through out the period. Not to mention the prestige and warm and fuzzy feeling.
But the home owner doesn't really come out with a nest egg. More to the point the home owner pretty much used the home as a money matress...they get out of it what they put into it. It is not an investment. The only way to beat the system and to turn your home into an investment is to utilize the techniques mentioned in the thread above, i.e. flip strategically and move further and further out of the core of the city to bank on price differentials.
Or use the advantage of the flexibility of renting to job hop from city to city and increase income through bounding....also, if it suits you, derive a prestigious lifestyle and that warm fuzzy feeling by traveling the world, etc. Renting adds the flexibility of also immediate up or downsizing to save money. As kids leave the next egg, the renter would need to immediately downsize to a 1 bedroom or studio to improve the renting numbers above.
However that being said, the numbers I crunched above are guesstimates and not considerate of the specific details of when you purchased (high or low markets), locations, your family circumstances, etc. For example
My inlaws baught a house for $550k in 1990...can't sell for even $850k now. To crunch these numbers would probably come out worse than a renters scenario. However they also had 4 kids, and penty of room to even accommodate their children's families every time one of them hit some hard times and needed to move into the basement, or moved in to capitalize on a flip sale of their properties. Essentially the large home became a base to kick start 4 successful offsprings' lives from that of a working class immigrant couple. An apartment can't meet those needs.
A lot of people seem to produce some impressive stats and figures but these are so skewed and tailored to our individual needs that no one answer is right for the other.
You should all do CPI (including rent) comparisons to other world cities...you'll find the "madness" of Toronto is actually quite tame.
I am considering a move to the Middle East and when seriously number crunching I have short listed the following. Muscat stands out as a place to head to, but even that choice is highly personal and has a lot to do with cultural factors. How many of you would seriously move away from the GTA to say Nebraska to achieve that elusive income to CPI advantage? It's not madness when you still can't tear yourself away from this city. Buffalo, Hamilton, or Montreal stand out as options to TO if you're inclined.
[TABLE="width: 639"]
[TR]
[TD]City[/TD]
[TD]Consumer Price Index[/TD]
[TD]Rent Index[/TD]
[TD]Consumer Price Plus Rent Index[/TD]
[TD]Groceries Index[/TD]
[TD]Restaurant Price Index[/TD]
[TD]Local Purchasing Power Index[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Hong Kong, Hong Kong (151)[/TD]
[TD]79.44[/TD]
[TD]128.31[/TD]
[TD]102.91[/TD]
[TD]78.1[/TD]
[TD]64.05[/TD]
[TD]96.31[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Perth, Australia (11)[/TD]
[TD]130.07[/TD]
[TD]70.41[/TD]
[TD]101.41[/TD]
[TD]116.25[/TD]
[TD]126.02[/TD]
[TD]121.54[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
London, United Kingdom (26)[/TD]
[TD]113.84[/TD]
[TD]86.69[/TD]
[TD]100.8[/TD]
[TD]89.48[/TD]
[TD]106.27[/TD]
[TD]79.86[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
New York, NY, United States (73)[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Paris, France (17)[/TD]
[TD]119.44[/TD]
[TD]68.56[/TD]
[TD]95.01[/TD]
[TD]113.37[/TD]
[TD]111.49[/TD]
[TD]89.89[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Vancouver, Canada (47)[/TD]
[TD]105.3[/TD]
[TD]59.31[/TD]
[TD]83.21[/TD]
[TD]108.55[/TD]
[TD]92.63[/TD]
[TD]81.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Auckland, New Zealand (38)[/TD]
[TD]106.3[/TD]
[TD]49.97[/TD]
[TD]79.24[/TD]
[TD]94.19[/TD]
[TD]91.14[/TD]
[TD]96.78[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Rome, Italy (92)[/TD]
[TD]96.29[/TD]
[TD]60.2[/TD]
[TD]78.96[/TD]
[TD]79.94[/TD]
[TD]107.18[/TD]
[TD]62.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Kuwait City, Kuwait (49)[/TD]
[TD]104.87[/TD]
[TD]49.71[/TD]
[TD]78.38[/TD]
[TD]131.76[/TD]
[TD]87.86[/TD]
[TD]76.01[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Doha, Qatar (157)[/TD]
[TD]78.9[/TD]
[TD]77.76[/TD]
[TD]78.35[/TD]
[TD]68.33[/TD]
[TD]82.97[/TD]
[TD]134.82[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Toronto, Canada (84)[/TD]
[TD]97.42[/TD]
[TD]
54.28[/TD]
[TD]
76.7[/TD]
[TD]91.3[/TD]
[TD]86[/TD]
[TD]98.72[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Mississauga, Canada (56)[/TD]
[TD]103.26[/TD]
[TD]46.95[/TD]
[TD]76.21[/TD]
[TD]102.22[/TD]
[TD]84.79[/TD]
[TD]115.91[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Manama, Bahrain (30)[/TD]
[TD]109.11[/TD]
[TD]36.59[/TD]
[TD]74.28[/TD]
[TD]153.85[/TD]
[TD]70.01[/TD]
[TD]36.63[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Venice, Italy (44)[/TD]
[TD]105.58[/TD]
[TD]40.41[/TD]
[TD]74.28[/TD]
[TD]82.49[/TD]
[TD]115.86[/TD]
[TD]105.78[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (208)[/TD]
[TD]67.46[/TD]
[TD]77.46[/TD]
[TD]72.26[/TD]
[TD]54.65[/TD]
[TD]69.51[/TD]
[TD]115.92[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Moscow, Russia (153)[/TD]
[TD]79.37[/TD]
[TD]63.17[/TD]
[TD]71.59[/TD]
[TD]55.57[/TD]
[TD]100.01[/TD]
[TD]50.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Los Angeles, CA, United States (166)[/TD]
[TD]77.56[/TD]
[TD]61.92[/TD]
[TD]70.05[/TD]
[TD]66.19[/TD]
[TD]80.38[/TD]
[TD]128.99[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
San Diego, CA, United States (137)[/TD]
[TD]81.16[/TD]
[TD]56.9[/TD]
[TD]69.51[/TD]
[TD]75.11[/TD]
[TD]80.06[/TD]
[TD]132.14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Dubai, United Arab Emirates (190)[/TD]
[TD]72.84[/TD]
[TD]64.58[/TD]
[TD]68.87[/TD]
[TD]62.11[/TD]
[TD]67.88[/TD]
[TD]130.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Hamilton, Canada (99)[/TD]
[TD]93.63[/TD]
[TD]29.24[/TD]
[TD]62.7[/TD]
[TD]86.05[/TD]
[TD]70.83[/TD]
[TD]112.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Montreal, Canada (119)[/TD]
[TD]88.3[/TD]
[TD]33.32[/TD]
[TD]61.89[/TD]
[TD]89.39[/TD]
[TD]84.52[/TD]
[TD]114.18[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Buffalo, NY, United States (131)[/TD]
[TD]84.62[/TD]
[TD]34.81[/TD]
[TD]60.7[/TD]
[TD]84.5[/TD]
[TD]67.14[/TD]
[TD]135.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Jeddah (Jiddah), Saudi Arabia (81)[/TD]
[TD]98.21[/TD]
[TD]18.52[/TD]
[TD]59.93[/TD]
[TD]116.94[/TD]
[TD]37.9[/TD]
[TD]79.86[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Muscat, Oman (242)[/TD]
[TD]59.89[/TD]
[TD]37.24[/TD]
[TD]49.01[/TD]
[TD]49.07[/TD]
[TD]54.18[/TD]
[TD]129.09[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (183)[/TD]
[TD]74.1[/TD]
[TD]17.38[/TD]
[TD]46.86[/TD]
[TD]46.87[/TD]
[TD]38.86[/TD]
[TD]116.73[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Istanbul, Turkey (217)[/TD]
[TD]65.18[/TD]
[TD]19.01[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD]49.55[/TD]
[TD]51.99[/TD]
[TD]63.73[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (259)[/TD]
[TD]57.03[/TD]
[TD]24.82[/TD]
[TD]41.56[/TD]
[TD]55.67[/TD]
[TD]29.69[/TD]
[TD]78.71[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Ankara, Turkey (248)[/TD]
[TD]58.39[/TD]
[TD]13.19[/TD]
[TD]36.68[/TD]
[TD]45.28[/TD]
[TD]45.53[/TD]
[TD]63.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Cairo, Egypt (328)[/TD]
[TD]41.72[/TD]
[TD]11.49[/TD]
[TD]27.2[/TD]
[TD]36.21[/TD]
[TD]36.19[/TD]
[TD]26.96[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
I'm gonna end with a calculation below:
So if you pay $600k now, in 40 years you will break even if you sell for $2.6 million (adjusted at 2.5% inflation over 40 years). Sounds like you quadrupled your money don't it?!?! Nope.
Now let's do a rental calc in today's money for a 2bdrm apartment (currently estimating $2000 / mo rent) =
$1.6 Million over 40 years, adjusted for 2.5% inflation.
With the current home prices you may be better off renting!!! with the caveat below...
Note however I did not compare renting a 2000 sq ft home! I compared a 2bdrm apartment. The lesson here is if you can do with less space and rent you can save money on buying space you dont need. And it is these sort of questions and calcs you have to run over and over again to find what works for you! If you rent a house for $4000k / mo you will end up spending $3.2 Million...(buying being the winning option in this case), however the question isn't about renting a house of equal space and quality as opposed to buying...the question is, is it worth buying the house YOU DON"T REALLY NEED vs buying a smaller home or renting only what you do need.
Every time I crunch the numbers home owning comes out on top by a small margin when comparing like for like. But who would rent a 2000sq ft house for 40 years anyways?!??!?!