As a stand-alone, the cost of credit is a decent enough reason to explain why Canada’s housing market stands where it does in the Deutsche Bank study. However, rates are low all over the world. Our housing market is not the only one benefitting from this dynamic. There must be something else going on.....*
Reason #2: The Availability of Credit
The world of lending (i.e., mortgages), in its simplest form, is populated by those who need money (borrowers) and those who have access to it (lenders). Borrowers go to lenders for loans. Loans are granted based on the borrower’s perceived ability to service that loan. In theory, would-be borrowers deemed unfit to service a loan are declined.*
In a system where lenders control the availability of credit, the risk is left in the hands of the lender. If they lend to unfit borrowers, they won’t be long for this world.*
The thing is, the availability of credit as it pertains to Canada’s housing market has not been left solely in the hands of the lenders. Meet the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporate – or the CMHC. This government entity has played a huge role in the run-up in Canadian house prices.*
The Basics
In the world described above, where only lenders and borrowers exist, a borrower seeking a mortgage for the purchase of a home is typically required to make a down payment. Historically, this down payment had to amount to 25% of the value of the home (way back it was actually much more). Now it’s 20%.*
The down payment is meant to protect the lender in the event of a borrower default. It provides a cushion that helps minimize the risk of a loss if the lender has to liquidate the property.*
The CMHC, however, alters this relationship by providing mortgage insurance. Though the lenders have maintained a 20% down payment threshold, thanks to the CMHC, the size of the required down payment has come down dramatically. In fact, it fell to just 5% in the early 1990s and in 2006 the Crown corporation actually introduced a no-down-payment insurance option.*
But, you ask, what about that nice cushion that is required by the lenders? Well, for any borrower that doesn’t have 20% to put down against a home, for the price of an insurance premium paid to the CMHC, they are able to make a down payment of essentially any amount they’d like. In exchange for this premium, the CMHC guarantees the loan – meaning, should it go into default, the bank will be repaid in full by the CMHC. The bank’s cushion remains.*
There’s more
It’s clear that demand for housing will go up if:
•** *You go from a system that prevents potential home buyers that don’t have a 20% down payment from getting a mortgage to a system that essentially allows all would-be home buyers, in exchange for a relatively small fee (that can be tacked onto the mortgage), to get in the game
Because of the CMHC’s involvement, the availability of credit has expanded, which is not necessarily a bad thing. After all, housing activity has a huge multiplier effect through the economy -- and heck, if it weren’t for the CMHC, I certainly wouldn’t have been able to pony up for my first house. There are many more of “me” out there.*
Though the principles may sound reasonable, the program has appeared to lose some degree of focus in recent years. For instance, increasing the maximum insured mortgage from $250,000 to $1,000,000, and extending allowable amortization periods three times between 2005 and 2006 (we’re now back to where we started) only helped provide a catalyst to a market that was already heating up due to the declining cost of credit. **
In addition, the government has greatly expanded the amount of insurance the CMHC is allowed to have underwritten at any given time. Currently, this limit sits at $600 billion, with $560 billion actually in force. In 2005, this figure sat at $273.7 billion, with a $300 billion limit in place.
The net result of this loss of focus and rapid expansion of the program in recent years: 75% of all Canadian mortgages are now insured by our federal government, up from just 30% in 1988 and 55% in 2003.*