Elephant in the Covid room

[PrivatePilot]

I read today that the USA is starting to level off already in demand - some areas are doing well with percentages, others (*cough*, you guessed it, red states) are seeing drastically falling demand as everyone who wants it has got it. And those percentages in those states are not good. There will be much Karma / consequences to your actions in the months ahead I think, which hey, could actually convince the holdouts that their decision wasn't actually that wise and boost numbers a bit further. But a big percentage of the hard right won't take it regardless.

Also heard that there's talks going on for much of that potential vaccine surplus about to happen over there in the next few weeks as a direct result of this to find its way north. It's in the USA's best interest to get us all vaccinated too.

 

[GreyGhost]

I read today that the USA is starting to level off already in demand - some areas are doing well with percentages, others (*cough*, you guessed it, red states) are seeing drastically falling demand as everyone who wants it has got it. And those percentages in those states are not good. There will be much Karma / consequences to your actions in the months ahead I think, which hey, could actually convince the holdouts that their decision wasn't actually that wise and boost numbers a bit further. But a big percentage of the hard right won't take it regardless.

Also heard that there's talks going on for much of that potential vaccine surplus about to happen over there in the next few weeks as a direct result of this to find its way north. It's in the USA's best interest to get us all vaccinated too.

On that front, to me it would make sense for US to setup stations at the border to stick truckers driving back and forth. Hell, charge the trucker $50 and make it a condition of continued trans-border travel. Hopefully their employer picks up the tab.

 

[ToSlow]

What’s the safe number in the chart? 30,40,50 percent. At what point will be the new normal.

 

[PrivatePilot]

Here's a good article that demonstrates the mess the USA will be dealing with for a long time to come.

Some Oregon residents are wary of the COVID-19 vaccine. Here's why

Those declining the vaccine say not enough is known about it, there aren't enough reasons to get it, or they distrust government in general.

www.statesmanjournal.com

Thankfully we're more united here, but I still don't think we'll reach the magic 80%..

 

[Brian P]

We can't get to 80%. People under 18 are ~20%. It looks like >20% of adults aren't really interested in getting it (which may change with time). Therefore ~60% is a reasonable endpoint for the new normal. Then it is up to gov't to decide if that is acceptable or whether to lean hard on some of the adults that are resisting for idealistic reasons instead of actual physical/medical reasons.

I think it will sloooowly edge up once it gets past 60% - 65%. Heard in the news that Pfizer has studied the effects of the vaccine on 12 to 15 year olds (that one is already approved for over 16 in the USA) and had good results, and is looking to have that added to their emergency use authorisation. That will add another several percent of people who can have it done. As for those "not interested" ... Some percentage of those, will end up being vaccinated because they'll want to go on vacation, and the international destination that they wish to go to, says "thou shalt" ... or because our own country continues to state that upon return to Canada, they have to either have proof of vaccination, or test + quarantine, the vaccine being free, the test + quarantine being expensive.

 

[PrivatePilot]

On that front, to me it would make sense for US to setup stations at the border to stick truckers driving back and forth.

It baffles me that truck drivers of ALL sorts (cross border or not) weren't in the very first wave of shots. We're literally some of the biggest travel vectors on the planet, and a lot of Canadian drivers report issues with feeling safe in the USA right now when many of the truck stops and factories and such they have to go to are full of deniers and people who give zero fucks.

 

[Brian P]

What’s the safe number in the chart? 30,40,50 percent. At what point will be the new normal.

No one knows. The percentage of people who have to be immune for the much-vaunted "herd immunity" is a function of Rt, and that's a function of not only the virus but also the public health measures that people are using (isolation, masking, etc). If you drop the public health measures, Rt goes up, and a higher percentage has to be immune.

As if that weren't complex enough ... The calculation of "herd immunity" assumes that the immune people are randomly distributed in the population ... and that's not the case. If you have a sub-population that is not immune (e.g. schoolchildren!), the infection can run rampant through that population, and spread to the portion of the rest of the population that is not immune.

Bottom line ... get vaccinated. Then, there is perhaps not a 100% guarantee that you aren't the problem, but probably 95-ish%.

10 days 16 hours and counting ...

 

[PrivatePilot]

Heard in the news that Pfizer has studied the effects of the vaccine on 12 to 15 year olds (that one is already approved for over 16 in the USA) and had good results, and is looking to have that added to their emergency use authorisation. That will add another several percent of people who can have it done. As for those "not interested" ... Some percentage of those, will end up being vaccinated because they'll want to go on vacation, and the international destination that they wish to go to, says "thou shalt" ... or because our own country continues to state that upon return to Canada, they have to either have proof of vaccination, or test + quarantine, the vaccine being free, the test + quarantine being expensive.

Getting kids vaccinated will be tough.

Kids old enough to make their own decisions and who are willing to believe it's safe and in their best interest, for sure.

Kinda who are in that category but give zero fucks, doubtful.

Kids who still need their parents permission, well, then we get into helicopter parent zones where parents think they know more than the doctors and scientists and they may distrust getting their kids vaccinated even if they did. Who knows.

As for the vaccine passport thing, honestly, this is the BIGGEST way we can solve all this, I fully agree. We can't force people to get vaccinated, but we sure as hell can make their lives uncomfortable and boring if they don't.

 

[Brian P]

I read today that the USA is starting to level off already in demand - some areas are doing well with percentages, others (*cough*, you guessed it, red states) are seeing drastically falling demand as everyone who wants it has got it. And those percentages in those states are not good. There will be much Karma / consequences to your actions in the months ahead I think, which hey, could actually convince the holdouts that their decision wasn't actually that wise and boost numbers a bit further. But a big percentage of the hard right won't take it regardless.

Self-correcting problem that has the bonus of wiping out a bunch of the anti-science ostrich-head-in-the-sand crowd before the next election.

Sad. But that's the way I see this happening.

 

[Wingboy]

Might be some real estate available in Leamington and Aylmer.

 

[jc100]

Our ICU in Kingston is full....and none of the patients there are from Kingston. They are mostly from the GTA. Sick kids hospitals in Toronto and Ottawa are also now taking in adult COVID patients.

One of the drugs used on very sick patients is being limited as there are short supplies.

This is worse than it’s been.

 

[ToSlow]

Our ICU in Kingston is full....and none of the patients there are from Kingston. They are mostly from the GTA. Sick kids hospitals in Toronto and Ottawa are also now taking in adult COVID patients.

One of the drugs used on very sick patients is being limited as there are short supplies.

This is worse than it’s been.

This is the thing that really upsets the government applecart, there’s no reason they could not have prepared for this when they’ve had months to put Mobil hospitals in strategic spots.

Instead they push covid patients in places like sick kids,

I spent months in sick kids with one of my own and it pisses me to no end to think the FN idiots steering the ship pulls this ****

 

[nobbie48]

Certainly, governments that have been re-active instead of pro-active have contributed to the issue.

But ... Suppose Justin Trudeau had put an immediate border closure plus mandatory 14 day hotel quarantine for all incoming flights the way Australia and New Zealand did, and then implemented mandatory contact-tracing apps once covid19 leaked into the country (which was inevitable - we're not Australia and New Zealand) so that there was full contact tracing everywhere like many southeast Asian countries did, so that we could actually do contact-tracing?

How many people would have screamed bloody murder at the intrusion upon their rights?

How many people, TODAY, are still pushing for all businesses to open up, end all lockdowns, and only "protect the vulnerable" (failing to recognise that there is no black-and-white separation of such people but rather infinite shades of grey)?

One way of looking smart is to hang around with really dumb people.

I think a lot of Canadians were a bit smug, comparing Canada to the USA instead of New Zealand. Yeah we looked OK.

Now we have to look at the USA getting its act together and the tables are slowly turning.

There are a lot of anti vaxxers, maskers etc in the USA but as they see their friends and family die many will convert. It will be slow and quiet to save face. We all do it. It isn't evangelism. As long as Trump keeps his yap shut things will improve down there, a little at a time.

 

[jc100]

This is the thing that really upsets the government applecart, there’s no reason they could not have prepared for this when they’ve had months to put Mobil hospitals in strategic spots.

Instead they push covid patients in places like sick kids,

I spent months in sick kids with one of my own and it pisses me to no end to think the FN idiots steering the ship pulls this ****

There’s a ton of blame but no one knew just how bad the new variants could be for transmission.

I've started ordering in stuff for my backyard as it’s going to be used even more this year. Nice big double hammock arrived the other day.

 

[ToSlow]

This is being handled like it’s purge,

 

[PrivatePilot]

There’s a ton of blame but no one knew just how bad the new variants could be for transmission.

Well, actually, the scientists and doctors did, and they said it loud and clear.

But our fearless leader either didn't really believe them, or was more focused on "open for business, folks" instead. And here we are. Cats out of the bag, now.

 

[ToSlow]

Well, actually, the scientists and doctors did, and they said it loud and clear.

But our fearless leader either didn't really believe them, or was more focused on "open for business, folks" instead. And here we are. Cats out of the bag, now.

I don’t know if Doug is getting bad advice or just failing to follow the advice?

Either way they need to get more representatives setting at the round table

 

[jc100]

Well, actually, the scientists and doctors did, and they said it loud and clear.

But our fearless leader either didn't really believe them, or was more focused on "open for business, folks" instead. And here we are. Cats out of the bag, now.

I know it’s semantics but yes, they knew it was bad.....I don’t think they knew it was going to be this bad. Brazil is in a serious world of hurt right now. The world has access to vaccines but there’s still wildfire outbreaks. Rapid spread, large numbers, ICUs filling or full.

The US isn’t looking too bad but it’s still not all rosy there either.

 

[ToSlow]

I seen in an earlier post someone said it takes 14days for the first shot to have its full potential.

Was that something that they thought, or was the science behind it?

 

[Brian P]

I seen in an earlier post someone said it takes 14days for the first shot to have its full potential.

Was that something that they thought, or was the science behind it?

Established during the trial stages for the vaccine, and confirmed in phase 3 trials by noting the time between vaccination and any infections which were detected subsequent to vaccination. Basically, the rate of infection initially starts off the same as before vaccination and then ramps down over two or three weeks as your immune system reacts (and this is why you have to continue to use masks and physical-distance etc for some time after vaccination).

This behaviour is not unique to this virus ... it is similar for other vaccinations for other diseases.