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Elephant in the Covid room
- Thread starter Wingboy
- Start date
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Not four months like the rest of us? Who decides?
Edit: Australia's response timeline:
Timeline: how Australia responded to the coronavirus outbreak
TIMELINE OF COVID-19 IN AUSTRALIA
DownUnder
Well-known member
Don't sleep too easy quite yet, or let your guard down....it takes 14 days to reach the peak effectiveness you'll get from that first shot.
I'm at 5 days post jab now so I'm still being pretty careful. At 14 I'll relax a little.
They are...it's all done by your health card and entered in a central registry. These people trying to game the system will get turned away when their health card is scanned and the gig is up.
There was 2 months of evidence in hand that showed strong immunity after the first dose persisted to that 2 month period, and showed no signs of tapering....so the science at hand when the decision was made seems to support the decision and it does make sense.
It's the fault of a lot of these people, I agree.
A lot of fault also lies at the feet of Doug Ford for embracing it to begin with. Lest we remember how quick he was to "open for business" only a handful of weeks ago when the doctors and scientists were saying it was unwise, and up until just earlier this week things like hair salons and other things that were closed in some of the hotspots were scheduled to be allowed to reopen.
To listen to him on the radio a few days ago admonishing people for doing exactly what he enabled and talking about "the crowded malls" and such was the biggest heap of steaming BS I've heard from him to date. What did he THINK people would do when he reopened all those places?
It's only this week when it turned out all those scary projections the doctors and scientists were making were actually coming true (I know, who'da thunk it?) that there was a sudden about face.
Certainly, governments that have been re-active instead of pro-active have contributed to the issue.
But ... Suppose Justin Trudeau had put an immediate border closure plus mandatory 14 day hotel quarantine for all incoming flights the way Australia and New Zealand did, and then implemented mandatory contact-tracing apps once covid19 leaked into the country (which was inevitable - we're not Australia and New Zealand) so that there was full contact tracing everywhere like many southeast Asian countries did, so that we could actually do contact-tracing?
How many people would have screamed bloody murder at the intrusion upon their rights?
How many people, TODAY, are still pushing for all businesses to open up, end all lockdowns, and only "protect the vulnerable" (failing to recognise that there is no black-and-white separation of such people but rather infinite shades of grey)?
But ... Suppose Justin Trudeau had put an immediate border closure plus mandatory 14 day hotel quarantine for all incoming flights the way Australia and New Zealand did, and then implemented mandatory contact-tracing apps once covid19 leaked into the country (which was inevitable - we're not Australia and New Zealand) so that there was full contact tracing everywhere like many southeast Asian countries did, so that we could actually do contact-tracing?
How many people would have screamed bloody murder at the intrusion upon their rights?
How many people, TODAY, are still pushing for all businesses to open up, end all lockdowns, and only "protect the vulnerable" (failing to recognise that there is no black-and-white separation of such people but rather infinite shades of grey)?
All fair points, but in my mind, clamping down back then and pushing the urgency of the situation ("a little tough times now so we have a potentially decent rent of the year") vs the on/off 'lockdown' we've been experiencing? I think upon reflection many people would choose door #1.
It could be with our geographic situation we'd never be out of the woods even with those measures, but i'd rather they have tried it then what we have been going through so far.
You're not wrong, but looking back on it a year later, if we had done that and it turned out to have paid off (IE, we were sitting pretty right now instead of being in the mess we're in) I'm sure many people would have looked back in hindsight and realize that it was kinda worth it.
Sometimes politicians need to just do what's right, not what "feels good" or "helps ensure our party will stay in power". Act first, ask for forgiveness later. If we were all back to normal now because of those heavy handed actions then I think most people would be pretty forgiving about it all.
I guarantee that if 10 years from now we go through this all over again...a lot of things will be done very, very differently.
I'm personally doubting we'll reach that level of inoculation given the antivaxers out there and vaccine hesitancy.
I suspect it'll become endemic, like the flu. It'll go away mostly in the summer and come back in the fall/winter. Those who are willing to get vaccinated will be protected from it. Those who refuse for whatever reason, well, I guess they take their risks. Problem is their actions effect the rest of us as well...so if for 6 months of the year for the rest of our lives we need to wear masks inside buildings and see capacity restrictions and such, well, thank the antivaxers.
If we're really lucky...it will burn itself out. There is evidence this could happen...see 1918 pandemic.
We know that, and I'm contributing my little bit on 20th April. Appointment booked, because I live in one of the postal codes where people over 50 are eligible because covid19 is on fire here.
If you look at the demographics of the people who have been serious cases, I think by early to mid May we will be in a much better place in terms of the health-care system. There will still be a lot of daily cases, but the hospitalisations and deaths should be going down, with a good chunk of the people over 50 vaccinated; the daily cases will then be even more biased towards younger people than it is now (even now, people 20-39 are the biggest number of cases).
There's still going to be older folks in hospital, there's still going to be older folks dying ... the ones who haven't been vaccinated, and interacted with the younger folks who are infected but asymptomatic.
Motorcycle related: World Superbike Yamaha rider Toprak Razgatlioglu, 24 years old, is in quarantine in Barcelona because he tested positive as part of WorldSBK's routine testing (in which all riders and all team members are being tested very frequently). Asymptomatic. Good thing for them doing all that testing. One less young person out in the wild spreading it to others ...
Quite possible. If that's how it shakes out, so be it.
Know who's going to be bearing the brunt of the long tail end of this pandemic, once the rest of us have been offered the chance of being vaccinated?
Anti-vaxxers.
And there is evidence that new variants will evolve that bear more serious consequences (although, thus far, the vaccines that have been developed still seem to be effective at reducing hospitalisations and deaths).
Self-correcting problem.
Yes, they are dragging it out for the rest of us.
DownUnder
Well-known member
Well, unless one of those varients they brew up in their covid riddled bodies (symptomatic or not, sick or otherwise...they still get infected and spread it around and incubate) end up becoming something that starts the chain all over again by turning out to be something that evades the vaccines.
That's the risk. These people who refuse to get vaccinated could end up being literal Typhoid Mary's and we're back to square one again.
Here's hoping science can stay ahead of these people.
That's the risk. These people who refuse to get vaccinated could end up being literal Typhoid Mary's and we're back to square one again.
Here's hoping science can stay ahead of these people.
We can't get to 80%. People under 18 are ~20%. It looks like >20% of adults aren't really interested in getting it (which may change with time). Therefore ~60% is a reasonable endpoint for the new normal. Then it is up to gov't to decide if that is acceptable or whether to lean hard on some of the adults that are resisting for idealistic reasons instead of actual physical/medical reasons.
One other small thing. Have a look at this chart: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research
That chart is destined to level off at whatever percentage of the population (a) is eligible, and (b) opts in. For Israel, that appears to be something over 60% (bear in mind that a certain percentage of the population below 18-ish years old has thus far not been eligible). Other countries haven't gotten to the levelling-off part of their charts yet, although the UK may be approaching it.
The good thing is that this, plus whoever is immune from having been infected and recovered, appears to be sufficient to reduce covid19 infection rates to a pretty low level compared to where they were. Israel Coronavirus: 835,674 Cases and 6,280 Deaths - Worldometer
That chart is destined to level off at whatever percentage of the population (a) is eligible, and (b) opts in. For Israel, that appears to be something over 60% (bear in mind that a certain percentage of the population below 18-ish years old has thus far not been eligible). Other countries haven't gotten to the levelling-off part of their charts yet, although the UK may be approaching it.
The good thing is that this, plus whoever is immune from having been infected and recovered, appears to be sufficient to reduce covid19 infection rates to a pretty low level compared to where they were. Israel Coronavirus: 835,674 Cases and 6,280 Deaths - Worldometer
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