They are saying Canada should have 8 million doses by end of March (2 weeks away), 36 million by end of June. With the new longer max spacing between doses, that means every adult Canadian should have the opportunity for one dose by around mid June. If the UK is any indication, that should almost put a stop to this. If anything, it may even peter out before then because enough people have immunity. So ...
28 million doses over 12 weeks is 2.3 million doses per week total. That's the pace needed to achieve this. Pfizer is supposed to be delivering 1.2 million per week starting next week with the rest spread out between Moderna, AstraZeneca (schedule not known yet but they were saying May), and J&J (schedule not known yet). Pfizer is shipping weekly, the others have a lumpy schedule, so it is likely to be up and down from this, but let's use 2.3 million per week on average.
Ontario has around 40% of Canada's population, so that means once this gets rolling Ontario should be getting just under 1 million total doses per week. Works out to about 140,000 vaccinations per day. That's the number to look for. Doug Ford says our vaccination capacity is 4-and-change million per month, so if the system can do what he says it can, we are good.
Next thing, "when can I expect ..." Roughly speaking, there's 2 million people in each 10-year age group in Ontario. I know they're signing up the over-80's now and some regions have already started and they've already done some of that group as part of the care-homes (whose residents are already done). So, roughly speaking, they should be able to take care of the over-80s by early April, and then each 10-year age group roughly every two weeks after that, if things work the way we hope they will. They've done some of the 60-to-64 group already, which will help. Means my sis and bro-in-law will get taken care of sometime in April and I'll get it sometime in May.
I think there will be a case-number spike due to B.1.1.7 over the next two or three weeks, but then the numbers will start going down and keep going down.
The UK's B.1.1.7 spike started around mid December and peaked on 8th January (roughly coinciding with their major vaccination roll-out) and has been dropping fast ever since. They've gotten one dose to around a third of their population and the case numbers are now less than 1/10 of that peak - although they've also been in lockdown more stringent than ours.
