I had an interesting conversation with an expat Canadian living in the States a week or so ago. She is concerned for her mother living here in Canada. She had learned that her mother had not registered to get the vaccine.
She had been following the recent news in the US, CCN for the most part. What she gathered was that the US vaccine program was in complete shambles, she would be lucky to get the shot by April or May and that Canada and the rest of the world were doing great.
I had to reset her understanding. I linked her to a few web sites.
Canada began inoculations a few days before the US, but the US quickly passed Canada in their administration rate.
The US administers more inoculations per day than Canada has done total. At that date it was about 1.3 million per day in the US, about 1 million total here. This statistic will probably be true into March.
The US has administered more doses that any other country in the world.
The US entered into supply contracts in February and March last year, Canada hitched it’s wagon to the wrong horse and had to negotiate contracts in August and September. Canada is at the back of the line in the developed world.
I had to explain that we are not offering the vaccine to abled bodied population outside of LTC, Front Line workers, Indigenous and The North. There are many essential workers after that. Her mother could probably expect her dose to be available in May or June. At the rate we’re going my son and I would expect ours about a year from now.
In any case, in relation to Canada, the US is doing a lot better than she expected, there is a very good chance that the US will be on the down slope of vaccine administration by July or August. (Since then Biden has projected to be complete by the end of July, maybe a bit of “stretch goal”) This will mean a ramp to 3.5 to 4 million does per day. During the ramp down Canada may be able to arrange some of the production be diverted to Canada. 5% of the US production could put us on track to finish by the end of the year. (Pfizer and Moderna are projecting 2 billion doses this year, there will be in the order of 1.4 billion remaining after the US program, 5% being 70 million. Canada could have 10 million people fully inoculated by then, leaving us with a requirement of less than 50 million doses)