Any GTAM'ers own an electric vehicle?

Forum Sponsor
Just skimmed the article about the Chinese lady legal trouble with Tesla.
(Zhang asked the automaker to turn over the full pre-crash data from her car, hoping it might help explain what went wrong. Tesla refused.)
This begs the question. Do you really own your EV?
 
Is now a good time to get a discounted Tesla?
 
Not exclusively about electric but more about China's growing dominance. Interview with the CEO of Ford.

 
PrivatePilot said:
Fair, but I’m pretty confident the rest of this year is going to be a bloodbath for Tesla, not only in the USA, but around the world.

Anyone invested in Tesla may be wise to GTFO.
Click to expand...

Looks like I called that one right.

TSLA has lost over $100 per share since I posted that on February 3’rd, down 26%, and the collapse continues today.

Now below $300 a share.

1740596085796.png

In related news my wife and I instructed our financial advisor to remove all of our money from the markets as of Monday morning. They are now in a guaranteed investment situation earning less, but guaranteed not to get wiped out if the market takes a complete dump in the weeks ahead which I am starting to think may happen.
 
PrivatePilot said:
Looks like I called that one right.

TSLA has lost over $100 per share since I posted that on February 3’rd, down 26%, and the collapse continues today.

Now below $300 a share.

View attachment 72567
Click to expand...
Since that share price is detached from any reality, it could just as easily have gone up. Crypto is 100% gambling, TSLA is about 85% gambling (intrinsic value <$50/share).
 
GreyGhost said:
Since that share price is detached from any reality, it could just as easily have gone up. Crypto is 100% gambling, TSLA is about 85% gambling (intrinsic value <$50/share).
Click to expand...

I think reality is starting to catch up with it, investors are reigning themselves in with the reality that that Teslas share vs earnings ratio is ridiculously flawed and that the endless promises of self driving cars and Robotaxis and all of the other vaporware that he’s promised for a decade is “coming next year”, isn’t actually ever coming.

Plus, you know, Elon making the brand increasingly toxic by the day around the world. And the katamine fueled Cybertruck sh!tshow that’s turned into a huge flop is an albatross around Teslas neck now as well.

And AI investors are starting to become jittery as well, struggling to see a path to usefulness (and therefore, profitability), with some now whispering of a dotcom bubble type collapse on the horizon there as well. And we know Elon has gone full potato with AI as well.
 
Last edited:
PrivatePilot said:
I think reality is starting to catch up with it, investors are reigning themselves in with the reality that that Teslas share vs earnings ratio is ridiculously flawed and that the endless promises of self driving cars and Robotaxis and all of the other vaporware that he’s promised for a decade is “coming next year”, isn’t actually ever coming.

Plus, you know, Elon making the brand increasingly toxic by the day around the world. And the katamine fueled Cybertruck sh!tshow that’s turned into a huge flop is an albatross around Teslas neck now as well.

And AI investors are starting to become jittery as well, struggling to see a path to usefulness (and therefore, profitability), with some now whispering of a dotcom bubble type collapse on the horizon there as well. And we know Elon has gone full potato with AI as well.
Click to expand...
If I had the guts it would be short, short, short time...

The multiple on the stock is crazy and has been for forever. As a car company they should be a $30 stock and with declining sales on the way down. At the same time even with all the pullback the stock is higher right now than it was on election day last year, but closing in.

Most (very close to all) people I know that bought Teslas did so with the Musk worship/fanboy as at least a partial factor (if they admit it or not). Most of these same people are a bit embarrassed these days. An even greater factor outside of the US and even in the US, the MAGA crowd--EV Venn Diagram overlap is VERY small.

Some of the existing products are a bit long tail IMO. Automakers need repeat sales, to do so you need to update the models for there to be a reason to buy a new one AND to also compete with used ones for buyers new to the brand/model. The Model 3 is eight years old, sure there was a face lift and upgrades, is any of that enough to get the masses to trade in for a new one? Cyber truck is new but awful...

With Trump, there are many anti EV (or at least less pro EV) things now happening in the US. Can't be good for US sales.

Even before all the DOGE nonsense there just seems to be a crap tonne of Teslas in storage lots that just don;t look to be moving.

The market has far more options today to compete with.

But then again the stock seems to defy logic and has forever, I don't have the guts...
 
Last edited:
backmarkerducati said:
If I had the guts it would be short, short, short time...

The multiple on the stock is crazy and has been for forever. As a car company they should be a $30 stock and with declining sales on the way down. At the same time even with all the pullback the stock is higher right now than it was on election day last year, but closing in.

Most (very close to all) people I know that bought Teslas did so with the Musk worship/fanboy as at least a partial factor (if they admit it or not). Most of these same people are a bit embarrassed these days. An even greater factor outside of the US and even in the US, the MAGA crowd--EV Venn Diagram overlap is VERY small.

Some of the existing products are a bit long tail IMO. Automakers need repeat sales, to do so you need to update the models for there to be a reason to buy a new one AND to also compete with used ones for buyers new to the brand/model. The Model 3 is eight years old, sure there was a face lift and upgrades, is any of that enough to get the masses to trade in for a new one? Cyber truck is new but awful...

With Trump, there are many anti EV (or at least less pro EV) things now happening in the US. Can't be good for US sales.

Even before all the DOGE nonsense there just seems to be a crap tonne of Teslas in storage lots that just don;t look to be moving.

The market has far more options today to compete with.

But then again the stock seems to defy logic and has forever.
Click to expand...
It's a scary game to be short on a stock that has a price separated from reality. People have been saying Tesla is over-valued and should be shorted for years. Almost all of those people have lost huge and the fanbois have been winning.
 
All the people, especially celebrities, who made Elon the world's richest man, are falling over themselves now to deny it, so that the unwashed masses won't destroy their vehicles. It's simple, if you don't like Teslas, then sell yours.
201K views · 34K reactions | “What did you do last week?” 1: Woke up 2: Brushed my teeth 3; Signed autographs 4: Your mom 5: Got a new paint job on my Tesla! | Elvira, Mistress of the Dark (official)
Elvira is one example, who has written Elon Sux down the side of her car.
 
Baggsy said:
All the people, especially celebrities, who made Elon the world's richest man, are falling over themselves now to deny it, so that the unwashed masses won't destroy their vehicles. It's simple, if you don't like Teslas, then sell yours.
201K views · 34K reactions | “What did you do last week?” 1: Woke up 2: Brushed my teeth 3; Signed autographs 4: Your mom 5: Got a new paint job on my Tesla! | Elvira, Mistress of the Dark (official)
Elvira is one example, who has written Elon Sux down the side of her car.
Click to expand...
If there was a real backlash (eg selling cars instead of graffiti), that could flood the market and really put a hurting on sales. Why buy a new one if there are lots of used ones that are basically identical for a lot less money?
 
Speaking of the used market…

1740607208380.png

Let’s see which way these trends continue in the months ahead.
 
PrivatePilot said:
In related news my wife and I instructed our financial advisor to remove all of our money from the markets as of Monday morning. They are now in a guaranteed investment situation earning less, but guaranteed not to get wiped out if the market takes a complete dump in the weeks ahead which I am starting to think may happen.
Click to expand...
Bad choice, even if you correctly predict that the market will crash, you can't predict how long the crash will be and when or how fast it will rebound. You will almost certainly be worse off than if you just stayed in the market.

Here's a good story about "bob, the world's worst market timer", he always invests at the worst possible time, but his one saving grace is that he never sells, and as a result he still makes a decent return in the markets.

humbledollar.com

Buy High Sell Never - HumbleDollar

IN BEN CARLSON’S wonderful book, A Wealth of Common Sense, there’s a vignette about Bob, the world’s worst market timer. Bob is a diligent saver. But unfortunately, he’s cursed with horrible market-timing skills, plowing money into the stock market just before every major decline. For you market...
humbledollar.com humbledollar.com
 
danp said:
Bad choice, even if you correctly predict that the market will crash, you can't predict how long the crash will be and when or how fast it will rebound. You will almost certainly be worse off than if you just stayed in the market.

Here's a good story about "bob, the world's worst market timer", he always invests at the worst possible time, but his one saving grace is that he never sells, and as a result he still makes a decent return in the markets.

humbledollar.com

Buy High Sell Never - HumbleDollar

IN BEN CARLSON’S wonderful book, A Wealth of Common Sense, there’s a vignette about Bob, the world’s worst market timer. Bob is a diligent saver. But unfortunately, he’s cursed with horrible market-timing skills, plowing money into the stock market just before every major decline. For you market...
humbledollar.com humbledollar.com
Click to expand...
I'm with you but I'm not going to fault others that can't deal with the stress or are concerned about timing (if I was retiring next year and had a 20% pullback in everything, that could cause an issue). If the market pulls back more than 20%, I will pull a bunch out of HELOC to invest. The highest returns are in the heat of a market pullback. It's stressful but those are the years where you can make the most as long as you don't sell in fear.

I dislike most fixed income as it barely keeps up with real inflation at best (BoC has been playing games with the basket to keep the number down from reality). I need things to keep growing, i'll take the volatility in exchange for returns that completely eclipse fixed income over any five year period.

In PP's case, he was worried (rightly so imo) about a substantial change in his industry due to Drumpf making a mess. Forced retirement (or at least a substantial pay cut) at the same time as investments taking a dump is a bad combination.
 
Last edited:
GreyGhost said:
If there was a real backlash (eg selling cars instead of graffiti), that could flood the market and really put a hurting on sales. Why buy a new one if there are lots of used ones that are basically identical for a lot less money?
Click to expand...
If I was ****** at Elon enough to do something about it, and owned a Tesla, I’d call up the homeless advocate that I know, and she’d find someone who was borderline; who’s life would be changed by having the car. Once all the “elites” started seeing the poors driving around in the same cars, that would be the end of it.
 
danp said:
Bad choice, even if you correctly predict that the market will crash, you can't predict how long the crash will be and when or how fast it will rebound.
Click to expand...

Easy to say when you’re not looking at retiring in the next few years. If **** tanks 40% not all will come back fast.

And it’s not earning 0, it’s just earning less, but is secure.

It’ll go back into the markets in chunks after 90 days.

Our financial advisor strongly agreed with the move (and has lots of $1M+ clients doing the same) as he’s seeing signs of not only market instability building, but there’s also the “Trump does something incredibly stupid and the markets react badly” factor.

Once 90 days is past, chances are we’ve passed the “Trump does something stupid” phase at least.
 
PrivatePilot said:
Once 90 days is past, chances are we’ve passed the “Trump does something stupid” phase at least.
Click to expand...
Assuming he's still breathing, I doubt that is a 90 day window.

Averaging in/out over time is prudent. I increased diversification outside of NA but I am still overweight NA. I give the chance of a 40% pullback almost zero. For me with a 10+ year horizon, the bigger the pullback the better (although it would still suck short-term).
Forum Sponsor
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom