So.....recession time!? | Page 3 | GTAMotorcycle.com

So.....recession time!?

bigpoppa said:
Problem is we live in zombie capitalism, corrections are no longer allowed, consequences be damned.

No housing correction allowed, no stock market corrections allowed, no companies allowed to fail (bailouts)

I remember a time when investment came with risk. I feel old.
Click to expand...

This is a pretty uniquely Canadian problem. So much of our GDP is based on non-productive assets (real estate) that we cannot afford to stop the train. The government will fight tooth and nail to keep people in their homes because if that house of cards collapses we are in for a really rough time.

The US has a highly diversified economy that will keep chugging along if there is a real estate correction. 2008 was a pretty bad case of that but they rode it out in the end.

POWERMAN said:
I'd like to know as well since my property hunting has been going to @#$%& lately.`
Most houses that our listed for $450k-$600k end up selling for $825k+ easy after a bidding war.
Even shitholes where one cannot live in - broken down and disastrous inside, sell for some where around 600k.
And this was in Hamilton for the past 3 weeks.

Either there are a lot of renovators with deep pockets or people seem to have a LOT of money (in cold hard cash) to throw at properties that dont even command such pricing!

Expanded my search to Brantford, Waterloo and Cambridge - these places seem to be catching upto Hamilton levels now.
I may have to start looking at London or Windsor as things weren't looking good last night on MLS...sigh
Click to expand...

There's the:
  • Renovators/investors/flippers who have fat HELOCs to throw around
  • Immigrants that pool their money to buy a house designed for 4/5 people which will have 10 - 15 people living in it
  • Foreign investors, sorry "international students"
  • Middle/upper class millennials whose parents are giving them $200k for a down payment
The problem is that everyone at every step of the way benefits from this scheme except for young Canadians whose parents aren't giving them $200k to get started. That includes
  • The government (GDP/economy growth)
  • Mortgage brokers/lenders/banks (why yes sure I'll approve you for a mortgage based on no legit financials and suitcase full of cash)
  • Existing home owners (I didn't save for retirement so I need my ****** bungalow from 1970 to increase 30% a year so I can have money when I'm 80)
  • Real estate agents

Young Canadians get the shaft because we are importing 500k people a year who will accept lower living standards. The rich get richer and the poorer get poorer, a story as old as time.
 
mimico_polak said:
So the question for those that have lived through a recession….are we seeing signs of this incoming? I know I expected the market to tank after COVID, and yowza was I wrong!

I’m too dim to know what to look for. But I do know if enough of the news starts to use the word ‘depression’…fun times ahead.
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Read "Limits to Growth". In short it says the train is going to jump the track but if we back off the throttle more will survive. No one is backing off the throttle.

Recession: Your neighbour lost his job. "Tough luck pal."

Depression: You lost your job. "Somebody's got to bail me out."

What will the government do for anyone?

I speculate that there are enough home owners with votes to keep them somewhat safe. Stocks are also somewhat safe as the political parties don't bite the hands that feed them. Cash is a crop ready for harvest and your social insurance number makes it easy to track. The halls in Ottawa are wet with drool.
 
d4rktrooper788 said:
This is a pretty uniquely Canadian problem. So much of our GDP is based on non-productive assets (real estate) that we cannot afford to stop the train. The government will fight tooth and nail to keep people in their homes because if that house of cards collapses we are in for a really rough time.

The US has a highly diversified economy that will keep chugging along if there is a real estate correction. 2008 was a pretty bad case of that but they rode it out in the end.
Click to expand...
I think this is a uniquely western problem

china forced the CEO of evergrande to pay for losses out of pocket(he had to sell some yachts, other personal assets etc)
no bailouts afaik

The communists doing capitalism better, what a world
 
george__ said:
^
This is why JT keeps bringing 400k immigrants into Canada

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

BNN Bloomberg – Canada Business News, TSX Today & Interest Rates

Get the latest Canadian business news, TSX updates, interest rates and Bank of Canada coverage. Explore stock market investing and get expert financial insights on investment portfolio strategies.
www.bnnbloomberg.ca www.bnnbloomberg.ca
Click to expand...
Need to feed the beat bud. If the country isn't raising it's population on its own, you need fresh bodies to replace those that are dying off and stopping payments into the pool.

Whether we like it or not, I'm an immigrant, immigration is a necessity here in Canada.
 
mimico_polak said:
Need to feed the beat bud. If the country isn't raising it's population on its own, you need fresh bodies to replace those that are dying off and stopping payments into the pool.

Whether we like it or not, I'm an immigrant, immigration is a necessity here in Canada.
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There are degrees of necessity though. Post WW2 immigration to populate a sparsely populated country is one thing. Bringing in record numbers of people into a country with clear signs of taxed social services/markets is not prudent.

It becomes a feedback loop because eventually (like now) the people born here can't afford to have kids. So we need to bring in more people. Well eventually those people's kids won't be able to afford having kids either. And so on and so forth...
 
george__ said:
^
It is wage suppression
financialpost.com

An influx of immigrants is stagnating wage growth in surging Canadian recovery

With fewer labour shortages acting as leverage, workers are scoring tiny wage increases that leave them poorer after inflation is factored in
financialpost.com financialpost.com
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Well when you dont have a real economy, the only way to make money is to bring in immigrants and sell each other homes at inflated prices.

its great because it pays for old peoples pensions and healthcare costs, but inflates the cost of living, and reduces wages for the current workforce.

Wait why arent young people having kids?

anyway, its not like the kids need a house, they can put on VR goggles and buy a house in the metaverse.
 
I would feel bad having a kid with the uncertainty of rent looming over the family :(

Or run away from Ontario

tough choices
 
george__ said:
I would feel bad having a kid with the uncertainty of rent looming over the family :(

Or run away from Ontario

tough choices
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100% they're very difficult decisions.

You mentioned moving to Alberta a few weeks ago. What's going on w/ that? How's the US market?

I'd 100% look into working for a US firm, but my wife would be much harder to convince. I know plenty of people that are actually planning on making bank on their existing houses, packing up whatever they don't sell, and moving back to Poland.

My neighbour has 3 ATVs, 1 RV, and 1 Mustang Mach 1 (?) that he bought in the last year or so in preparation for flying back home.

He was using his HELOC to buy used RVs for cheap at auction, fixing them up, and selling them for 2-3x in the COVID stupid pricing runup last year. All cash. All tax free. Smart bastard, wish I had that hustler bone.
 
george__ said:
I would feel bad having a kid with the uncertainty of rent looming over the family :(

Or run away from Ontario

tough choices
Click to expand...
It's a tough call. My brother will be a perpetual renter. They had a second kid during Covid. If kids are important to you, you can only delay so long before the choice is made for you. My brother may have a chance to buy when my parents die (depending on how long they spend in LTC) but he is already setting himself up for a fail there too. He wants to buy land he can hunt on which will leave him with no money to buy/build a place to live. He seems determined to take the hard road.
 
mimico_polak said:
So the question for those that have lived through a recession….are we seeing signs of this incoming? I know I expected the market to tank after COVID, and yowza was I wrong!

I’m too dim to know what to look for. But I do know if enough of the news starts to use the word ‘depression’…fun times ahead.
Click to expand...
I don't really know but in my opinion we aren't currently headed for a recession. Mortgage defaults are low, demand for consumer products seems high, trades are busy. Money keeps changing hands and it doesn't appear to be slowing down.
 
george__ said:
I am open to suggestions
Click to expand...
Your in tech right?
Got a canadian passport I take it?

There are MANY options, apart from the obvious places,
Israel or Colombia both look interesting

restofworld.org

Beyond Silicon Valley

The six cities building the future of the global tech industry.
restofworld.org restofworld.org
 
d4rktrooper788 said:
This is a pretty uniquely Canadian problem. So much of our GDP is based on non-productive assets (real estate) that we cannot afford to stop the train. The government will fight tooth and nail to keep people in their homes because if that house of cards collapses we are in for a really rough time.

The US has a highly diversified economy that will keep chugging along if there is a real estate correction. 2008 was a pretty bad case of that but they rode it out in the end.



There's the:
  • Renovators/investors/flippers who have fat HELOCs to throw around
  • Immigrants that pool their money to buy a house designed for 4/5 people which will have 10 - 15 people living in it
  • Foreign investors, sorry "international students"
  • Middle/upper class millennials whose parents are giving them $200k for a down payment
The problem is that everyone at every step of the way benefits from this scheme except for young Canadians whose parents aren't giving them $200k to get started. That includes
  • The government (GDP/economy growth)
  • Mortgage brokers/lenders/banks (why yes sure I'll approve you for a mortgage based on no legit financials and suitcase full of cash)
  • Existing home owners (I didn't save for retirement so I need my ****** bungalow from 1970 to increase 30% a year so I can have money when I'm 80)
  • Real estate agents

Young Canadians get the shaft because we are importing 500k people a year who will accept lower living standards. The rich get richer and the poorer get poorer, a story as old as time.
Click to expand...
If natural born Canadians went back to the living standards of their grand parents they would be on a par with the new immigrants. Is having less than 1000 square feet of living space per person all that bad?

Bigger house = bigger lot = more expansion = less efficient public transit = more cars = more pollution = ad nauseam.

How does a granite counter top at 10 X the price of laminate technically benefit the average home maker?

Linoleum or vinyl tile vs ceramic? Ceramic feels colder so we heat it.

Parents coughing up down payments to get their kids into the tax free investment business = diminished probate (tax) fees. Win win.

How many people here trust the government and, for the members with a lot more calendars behind them, has your trust in the government to look after you until the grave significantly decreased over the years? Is there a point in time when you saw ethics start down the slippery slope?

If you can't trust the government to look after you, some degree of self preservation has to kick in. It isn't hard for that to evolve into poverty phobia, AKA greed. You can never be too rich. Look out for #1
 
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