COVID and the housing market

and today the Libs announce mving the insured morgage cap from 1mil to 1.5m and expanding the 30yr amortization program to make housing more affordable.
It will get a foot in the door , but it does nothing to change affordability , people ( like many Lib policy makers) are really disconnected from the meaning of the word, your in the game but chained to the wheel for a lot longer , costing more money ...
I wonder if that will change the definition of "insurable mortgages"? When I renewed recently, if my mortgage was insurable (eg. house at time of purchase was under 1M), rates were almost one percent lower with everything else being identical. I assume because the government sells the bank a dirt cheap policy so the bank is entirely protected from any loss.

EDIT:
They used our rapidly growing GDP to justify the bump. So you double the public payroll and then increase the insurance you (we) provide the banks at a discount rate to ensure that any house price correction kicks the taxpayer right in the nuts.
 
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and today the Libs announce mving the insured morgage cap from 1mil to 1.5m and expanding the 30yr amortization program to make housing more affordable.
It will get a foot in the door , but it does nothing to change affordability , people ( like many Lib policy makers) are really disconnected from the meaning of the word, your in the game but chained to the wheel for a lot longer , costing more money .....
Gonna be great, all those young families will finally get their dream!

Till they go to the bank.

A $1.5M home purchased with $150K down leaves a mortgage balance of about $1.45M? That needs $8K/mo for PIT for 30 years. To qualify, a joint income somewhere north of $350K is necessary (if you have no other debts or financial commitments like a car, or student loan).

I can see the lineups forming now!
 
Gonna be great, all those young families will finally get their dream!

Till they go to the bank.

A $1.5M home purchased with $150K down leaves a mortgage balance of about $1.45M? That needs $8K/mo for PIT for 30 years. To qualify, a joint income somewhere north of $350K is necessary (if you have no other debts or financial commitments like a car, or student loan).

I can see the lineups forming now!
The budget will balance itself Mike. Mortgage is secured by us. Heloc, interest only and hope a future lib government forgives mortgages in the quest for votes.
 
The budget will balance itself Mike. Mortgage is secured by us. Heloc, interest only and hope a future lib government forgives mortgages in the quest for votes.
I'm planning on sending my proposed family budget to JT...

Hopefully he can teach me how to double my debt while keeping my budget balanced.
 
There is more to Canada than the GTA... I get it, GTAM but this is not the actual centre of the universe.

While 30 year mortgage can give people enough rope to hang themselves it also allows someone to get into the market that couldn't otherwise. Many people do the extra payments, we paid our 25 year mortgage in ~16 years. 30 gets them in, smart people will pay if faster as wages increase in the future, dumb are dumb regardless. The math, required income, looks a lot different based on a $400K house outside of the GTA.

As for high ratio extending to $1.5M, this has little value outside of the GTA but if you were buying a house in the GTA, $1M was way outdated.

I don't think this solves much as supply and demand is still broken, specially in the GTA. Look at developers hoarding land, starts are way down. IMO, it takes some work but the city could start using CofA applications and start limiting new applications if specific developers are not building... sorry you are at your limit, build something. blah blah blah shell companies, they know who is who...
 
There is more to Canada than the GTA... I get it, GTAM but this is not the actual centre of the universe.

While 30 year mortgage can give people enough rope to hang themselves it also allows someone to get into the market that couldn't otherwise. Many people do the extra payments, we paid our 25 year mortgage in ~16 years. 30 gets them in, smart people will pay if faster as wages increase in the future, dumb are dumb regardless. The math, required income, looks a lot different based on a $400K house outside of the GTA.

As for high ratio extending to $1.5M, this has little value outside of the GTA but if you were buying a house in the GTA, $1M was way outdated.

I don't think this solves much as supply and demand is still broken, specially in the GTA. Look at developers hoarding land, starts are way down. IMO, it takes some work but the city could start using CofA applications and start limiting new applications if specific developers are not building... sorry you are at your limit, build something. blah blah blah shell companies, they know who is who...
All valid points, but if you want the jobs that pay you're in the more expensive areas
Doubt we'll see a mass move to Wawa for cheaper housing and a 30 year mortgage.
 
There is more to Canada than the GTA... I get it, GTAM but this is not the actual centre of the universe.

While 30 year mortgage can give people enough rope to hang themselves it also allows someone to get into the market that couldn't otherwise. Many people do the extra payments, we paid our 25 year mortgage in ~16 years. 30 gets them in, smart people will pay if faster as wages increase in the future, dumb are dumb regardless. The math, required income, looks a lot different based on a $400K house outside of the GTA.
The 400k house outside the gta reduces a mortgage payment by $150/mo with a 30 year amortization.

Maybe a deal breaker for some, not sure it’s that big of a deal.
As for high ratio extending to $1.5M, this has little value outside of the GTA but if you were buying a house in the GTA, $1M was way outdated.
Agreed.
I don't think this solves much as supply and demand is still broken, specially in the GTA. Look at developers hoarding land, starts are way down. IMO, it takes some work but the city could start using CofA applications and start limiting new applications if specific developers are not building... sorry you are at your limit, build something. blah blah blah shell companies, they know who is who...
Supply and demand are interlocked economics, you member get builders to build if there is no profit. Municipalities need to get out of the way, standardize zoning, simplify compliant permit applications, ease up on the dev fees by simplifying and building sensible infrastructure.

Builders will react more favourably to a carrot than a stick.
 
Supply and demand are interlocked economics, you member get builders to build if there is no profit. Municipalities need to get out of the way, standardize zoning, simplify compliant permit applications, ease up on the dev fees by simplifying and building sensible infrastructure.

Builders will react more favourably to a carrot than a stick.
Swear i've heard this tune before..

Ghostwriter for the Cons? ;)
 
All valid points, but if you want the jobs that pay you're in the more expensive areas
Doubt we'll see a mass move to Wawa for cheaper housing and a 30 year mortgage.
You might be surprised. I have a few investments in the North… house prices in areas with full employment have doubled in 4 years. Rents too, a 2br flat in a duplexes house rented for $850 in 2020, $1800 today.

Land is still cheap, but you can’t build in scale so construction costs are very high
 
You might be surprised. I have a few investments in the North… house prices in areas with full employment have doubled in 4 years. Rents too, a 2br flat in a duplexes house rented for $850 in 2020, $1800 today.

Land is still cheap, but you can’t build in scale so construction costs are very high
May be a good fit for a house factory if the increase in population justified setting it up. When you're done, you have a ton of houses and an industrial building left.
 
Swear i've heard this tune before..

Ghostwriter for the Cons? ;)
It’s not magic.

30 years ago I worked on raising funds for the IcePalace in Keswick. The rink, community centre and library are of the same design as Angus Glen CC in Markham. Same engineers, shared base design, same GC did the build.

Georginas rink cost $6m. Markham added a lot of architectural accoutrements, and a pool. Theirs cost $33m. Georgina wanted facility’s for their citizens (same as Markham had been doing for decades) Markham rec heads wanted bougie civic design awards… they got them.

Georgina developer fees for a small house are around $20k today, that’s up from $0 30 years ago. Markham collects $40k for same.
 
May be a good fit for a house factory if the increase in population justified setting it up. When you're done, you have a ton of houses and an industrial building left.
Someone got a big fat gov grant to do that. Not much good if you can’t get trades to build foundations and erect the buildings. It fizzled.
 
You may want to look into what is happening in Toronto.

There are "builders" that "buy up" a handful of houses. Neighbourhood zoned where as-of-right is four floors. They apply for 30 plus floors, knowing they won't get it but it causes neighbourhood flight (people see the zoning application sign for 30 floors and freak out) allowing them to buy up more houses for even cheaper, well below previous market value, more zoning signs and failed zoning applications, boarded up houses and urban decay is the name of the game at this point. They still get rejected, rinse and repeat, hoard for up to a decade (five to seven years seems to the the sweet spot) until they sell to a real builder for a huge profit or possibly build something reasonable themselves (say six floors). This is actually quite common these days. One kicker, they don't even own the houses when they first apply as they apply before they close (homeowners are listed as the property owners on the zoning application, check it out, closing is years out). Some of these guys have displaced more people than they have built units, yet have dozens of zoning applications with the city on the go right now. There is one on a side street off of Westen applying for a 48 story building on basically a handful of boarded up houses, oh and the building they are applying for will only have five parking spots--complete nonsense but there are some hold out houses on the street they still need to squeeze out. If you follow them many never even schedule the required public meeting as they have no intention of building, just creating flight, buying up land driving down property values....

There was one near us that included city owned land in their application...but they never even approached the city to buy the land! Guaranteed fail, but I believe that was the idea. This one has been on the go since 2016!

Other better builders apply for reasonable zoning changes or better yet, buy and build to zoning. But even these guys have dozens of applications with the city but are not building much these days. Still some bad acting, they build less then they buy and have years and years of hoarded property in the hopper.

Screw carrots, we want housing we need to use a big stick to stop the land hoarding. Vacant hoarded land does not house people.

IMO, charge property tax on the finished building they are applying for after a grace period. Limit the number of applications they can make, raise that limitation based on what they actually build. Punish the bad actors severely, the rewards for the good ones, they build and sell housing and make money. Take the worst ones out of the equation, eventually there will be more for the not bad ones.
 
You may want to look into what is happening in Toronto.

There are "builders" that "buy up" a handful of houses. Neighbourhood zoned where as-of-right is four floors. They apply for 30 plus floors, knowing they won't get it but it causes neighbourhood flight (people see the zoning application sign for 30 floors and freak out) allowing them to buy up more houses for even cheaper, well below previous market value, more zoning signs and failed zoning applications, boarded up houses and urban decay is the name of the game at this point. They still get rejected, rinse and repeat, hoard for up to a decade (five to seven years seems to the the sweet spot) until they sell to a real builder for a huge profit or possibly build something reasonable themselves (say six floors). This is actually quite common these days. One kicker, they don't even own the houses when they first apply as they apply before they close (homeowners are listed as the property owners on the zoning application, check it out, closing is years out). Some of these guys have displaced more people than they have built units, yet have dozens of zoning applications with the city on the go right now. There is one on a side street off of Westen applying for a 48 story building on basically a handful of boarded up houses, oh and the building they are applying for will only have five parking spots--complete nonsense but there are some hold out houses on the street they still need to squeeze out. If you follow them many never even schedule the required public meeting as they have no intention of building, just creating flight, buying up land driving down property values....

There was one near us that included city owned land in their application...but they never even approached the city to buy the land! Guaranteed fail, but I believe that was the idea. This one has been on the go since 2016!

Other better builders apply for reasonable zoning changes or better yet, buy and build to zoning. But even these guys have dozens of applications with the city but are not building much these days. Still some bad acting, they build less then they buy and have years and years of hoarded property in the hopper.

Screw carrots, we want housing we need to use a big stick to stop the land hoarding. Vacant hoarded land does not house people.

IMO, charge property tax on the finished building they are applying for after a grace period. Limit the number of applications they can make, raise that limitation based on what they actually build. Punish the bad actors severely, the rewards for the good ones, they build and sell housing and make money. Take the worst ones out of the equation, eventually there will be more for the not bad ones.
I don’t really know the scale of what you’re describing, but I believe these things do happen. Part of these shenanigans are because the city doesn’t have a cohesive zoning standard. If they simply standardized zoning based on proximity to transportation and community infrastructure, builders would know exactly where a 4, 6,30 or 100 storey building could be built.

But that would clear a lot of minion jobs from city hall… which I guess council values more than building homes.

I’m pretty sure developers pay full tick property taxes + vacant home tax on boarded up houses… I’d guess that means they are paying what the city wants to keep them as is.

At the end of the day I’m guessing the number of homes being hoarded and boarded is not significant in the great scheme of things - there were only 11,000 unoccupied homes in Toronto in 2023 - if they all got converted to working homes they would provide 1/5 of the demand generated by immigration alone.

Rightsizing immigration is the single fastest part of the solution. Toronto absorbed 125,000 immigrants in 2023, that required 52,000 additional homes.

.
 
It's not the first time that happened... there was a big real estate runup from 86 to 90. You could buy a 12'sq new build in Stoufville or Holland Landing for $120K. Starting mid 96, those houses appreciated 5% each month for about 3-1/2 years. Banks started pumping Helocs, like the last few years lots of regular folks tried their hand at speculation. Me included.

The market crashed the early 90s, prices fell by 35% in the GTA, dumb money speculators got punished. Me included.

I don't expect that to happen now, the crash in the 90s was exacerbated by deep recession, an inept provincial government, and massive losses in jobs and GDP for Ontario. Were on firmer ground today.
I was speaking to an economist when I worked in the bank several years ago. He told me that the introduction of the GST in 1991 had contributed to the deep recession in Canada for many years in the early 90s. I'm sure other factors also didn't help either.
 
I'd hoped this would be my forever home, but will likely sell in the next few years. My wife sadly died recently, unexpectedly in her early 50s.
4 bedrooms, 3k+ sq feet is absurd for my son and I.
Thankfully once a cause of death is determined and lawyers do their thing, it'll be mortgage free.
 
I'd hoped this would be my forever home, but will likely sell in the next few years. My wife sadly died recently, unexpectedly in her early 50s.
4 bedrooms, 3k+ sq feet is absurd for my son and I.
Thankfully once a cause of death is determined and lawyers do their thing, it'll be mortgage free.
Sh*t, man. Very sorry to hear. Hope you're coping okay, early 50s had to be a hell of a shock.
 
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