COVID and the housing market

Mad Mike said:
BOC has more concerns than mortgage rates, the solution of using interest rate hikes to cool inflation has side major economic side effects.

I think they may have slowed the economy too much. Manufacturers are not investing in productivity, unemployment is rising and GDP/capita is falling. BOC will need to shift priorities from fighting inflation to fighting recession.

I expect big cuts over the next 12 mos.
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Good. I could use some relief on my mortgage...hopefully I keep my job.

crankcall said:
The US is making some large cuts and since our economy is a bit connected to them we like it or not , we may have some suffering coming .
I suspect private lenders are feeling the pain faster than banks as people that need an unconventional source of finance will be sooner to default.


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What do you foresee as the 'suffering'? All my buddies in construction are saying it's super slow and the only work going on is the work that's been slated from 1-2 years ago and they can't stop construction of the buildings now.

All their residential work effectively stopped.

Could this be a good time to fire up my company now that my work around the house is coming to an end? I haven't focused much on it since I needed to finish up my things...but now I will have more time in the fall and winter, but I suspect many contractors will be flooding in to make up for lost wages that they got used to during COVID.
 
mimico_polak said:
Good. I could use some relief on my mortgage...hopefully I keep my job.


What do you foresee as the 'suffering'? All my buddies in construction are saying it's super slow and the only work going on is the work that's been slated from 1-2 years ago and they can't stop construction of the buildings now.

All their residential work effectively stopped.

Could this be a good time to fire up my company now that my work around the house is coming to an end? I haven't focused much on it since I needed to finish up my things...but now I will have more time in the fall and winter, but I suspect many contractors will be flooding in to make up for lost wages that they got used to during COVID.
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I'm pretty sure construction is in for some tough times, this may hurt folks in the material supply chain, and contractors but less so for tradespeople.

Producers and wholesalers fatten margins in inflationary times, but are reluctant and slow to roll back when markets cool. Items with short shelf life, like food, rollback sooner because perishables are move 'em or lose 'em -- that's why food prices are dropping. Durable goods can be inventoried, so wholesalers hold rollbacks until they get bloated with inventory. Then comes the big **** - a flood of deals hit the market and prices correct quickly and painfully. I think we're getting close to that.

Tradespeople might suffer a bit, but there's a lot of fat that moves around in the trade pricing. A contractor might have a cost of $60/hr for a carpenter, then charge that carpenter out for $100/hr. If that carpenter goes alone, he might charge himself out at $60/hr making carpentry less expensive or the final payor, but keeping the same income for the carpenter. Ot the contractor cuts his margin and sells the carpenter's service for $60/hr.

Fun times are on the horizon!

.
 
Mad Mike said:
I'm pretty sure construction is in for some tough times, this may hurt folks in the material supply chain, and contractors but less so for tradespeople.

Producers and wholesalers fatten margins in inflationary times, but are reluctant and slow to roll back when markets cool. Items with short shelf life, like food, rollback sooner because perishables are move 'em or lose 'em -- that's why food prices are dropping. Durable goods can be inventoried, so wholesalers hold rollbacks until they get bloated with inventory. Then comes the big **** - a flood of deals hit the market and prices correct quickly and painfully. I think we're getting close to that.

Tradespeople might suffer a bit, but there's a lot of fat that moves around in the trade pricing. A contractor might have a cost of $60/hr for a carpenter, then charge that carpenter out for $100/hr. If that carpenter goes alone, he might charge himself out at $60/hr making carpentry less expensive or the final payor, but keeping the same income for the carpenter. Ot the contractor cuts his margin and sells the carpenter's service for $60/hr.

Fun times are on the horizon!

.
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I'll be ordering my lawn sign this weekend then! May as well get that rolling as I've been very hesitant.
 
Here's an interesting one. Special assessment of 70K per dwelling for parking garage repairs in north york (sounds like flat rate per unit as bill is 7M for 100 units). That isn't all that strange. One of the unit owners interviewed is upset as he doesn't have a parking spot but gets the same assessment. Interesting. It seems that applying the assessment to each parking spot with the dwellings picking up the percentage for common spots such as visitor spots would be more equitable. Ime, the board members are those with bigger units and more parking spots. By assigning a flat rate per unit, that likely significantly reduces the share that board members would have to pay. I don't know the legal background as to how special assessments can be distributed but this seems to be fishy. At the very least, most condo's are funded per sq ft not per dwelling. Now, maybe this guy just has an average unit and it is per sq ft pricing.

www.cp24.com

North York condo owners say they are facing special assessment of $70K

The owners of a North York condominium say they are facing a $70,000 special assessment to fix their building's parking garage.
www.cp24.com www.cp24.com
 
Looks like it is a stacked and/or three story townhome complex "Yorkdale Village". Yorkdale Village Townhomes | Plans, Prices, Reviews

The parking garage is also the foundation (call it a common element) and it sounds like it is a structural problem due to water issues so parking spot or not it is likely everyone needs to pay. Now I would hope the amount paid would follow the ratio of condo fees paid which is based on unit size, parking spots etc. and not a flat rate for all. Just like if the building needs a roof, everyone has to pay (or it comes out of reserve, same difference) not just the people on the top floor.

It looks like the development is only 7 years old! Based on some news coverage but also looking at Google Maps. With a little digging you can find who the developer was...and there is lots of unhappy people not just in these buildings.
 
backmarkerducati said:
Looks like it is a stacked and/or three story townhome complex "Yorkdale Village". Yorkdale Village Townhomes | Plans, Prices, Reviews

The parking garage is also the foundation (call it a common element) and it sounds like it is a structural problem due to water issues so parking spot or not it is likely everyone needs to pay. Now I would hope the amount paid would follow the ratio of condo fees paid which is based on unit size, parking spots etc. and not a flat rate for all. Just like if the building needs a roof, everyone has to pay (or it comes out of reserve, same difference) not just the people on the top floor.

It looks like the development is only 7 years old! Based on some news coverage but also looking at Google Maps. With a little digging you can find who the developer was...and there is lots of unhappy people not just in these buildings.
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When the developer also runs a law office, you know you're *&^*^&ed.
 
GreyGhost said:
Here's an interesting one. Special assessment of 70K per dwelling for parking garage repairs in north york (sounds like flat rate per unit as bill is 7M for 100 units). That isn't all that strange. One of the unit owners interviewed is upset as he doesn't have a parking spot but gets the same assessment. Interesting. It seems that applying the assessment to each parking spot with the dwellings picking up the percentage for common spots such as visitor spots would be more equitable. Ime, the board members are those with bigger units and more parking spots. By assigning a flat rate per unit, that likely significantly reduces the share that board members would have to pay. I don't know the legal background as to how special assessments can be distributed but this seems to be fishy. At the very least, most condo's are funded per sq ft not per dwelling. Now, maybe this guy just has an average unit and it is per sq ft pricing.

www.cp24.com

North York condo owners say they are facing special assessment of $70K

The owners of a North York condominium say they are facing a $70,000 special assessment to fix their building's parking garage.
www.cp24.com www.cp24.com
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Add to the woe is some owners may be seeing higher mortgage payments and declining prices. Seven million dollars worth of noise and disruption to follow.

Some owners will not be able to raise a special assessment in which case the condo corporation can borrow the money and attach that to the suites, pay monthly or in full when selling.
 
Seniors housing from hell. Retirement (Over 55) bungalows mostly elsewhere but there is one in B.C.

You buy the house but rent the land. There are maintenance fees but the big hammer is an exit fee. Basically they cop up to 20% of the sales price when you sell. One in Australia tacked on a restoration fee of another $164,000.

Al the place needed was a touch up as it had only been lived in for four years by an 80 year old lady. They gutted the place.

Read the fine print.
 
GreyGhost said:
Fourth pre-closing intentionally set fire in a bondhead subdivision in the last year.

barrie.ctvnews.ca

8th fire in new Bradford community destroys house build, damages another

Police are asking for the public's help in identifying a suspect wanted in connection with an arson investigation after two more fires in a new Bradford community.
barrie.ctvnews.ca barrie.ctvnews.ca
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I am under the impression that the 427 is to eventually go nearby and help with values but don't rush to the bank yet.

It's an ugly situation to be in for the buyer and an accidental fire could help everyone but the insurer. The numbers alone indicate a problem.

The specific house would indicate a specific suspect. Proof is different.
 
nobbie48 said:
I am under the impression that the 427 is to eventually go nearby and help with values but don't rush to the bank yet.

It's an ugly situation to be in for the buyer and an accidental fire could help everyone but the insurer. The numbers alone indicate a problem.

The specific house would indicate a specific suspect. Proof is different.
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In this case, I wonder if all fires were the same builder. If so, their insurance company would not be happy. If buyer set fire and was smart about it, they may come out hundreds of thousands ahead. Not only will they avoid the liability of failing to close, by the time it gets rebuilt, they may no longer be underwater.

It will be interesting to see if police ever find a common thread between the fires (common lawyer, buyers know each other or have people in common, etc). It doesn't take much effort to make a trail that the police won't bother following as property crimes get almost zero time.
 
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GreyGhost said:
In this case, I wonder if all fires were the same builder. If so, their insurance company would not be happy. If buyer set fire and was smart about it, they may come out hundreds of thousands ahead. Not only will they avoid the liability of failing to close, by the time it gets rebuilt, they may no longer be underwater.
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I knew someone who ages ago was waiting for his new townhome to be completed near Dufferin and Lawrence and the complex went up in smoke. IIRC it was a sellers market so I assume the builder got the insurance money and rebuilt, selling at a higher price.

My acquaintance chose to pick a different site rather than wait.

If, theoretically, the prospective homeowner gets away with the arson due to lack of proof the insurance industry could blacklist him on a future home. Try to get financing.
 
Banks and insurance companies almost never loose money , that’s for other folks . New builds right now scare me, builders slowing progress, jacking prices before you close and a dozen other dooshy moves .


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crankcall said:
Banks and insurance companies almost never loose money , that’s for other folks . New builds right now scare me, builders slowing progress, jacking prices before you close and a dozen other dooshy moves .


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Those were the games a few years ago. Right now, ime, the builders are being very careful. They have signed contracts for well over what they can sell for. They want to ensure they don't do anything to give buyers traction to escape. Sure, lots of buyers won't be able to close, but the builder has the profit locked in as they can sell at market value and get top up from the initial buyers. Given how little we've been hearing about that, I highly suspect builders lawyers are sending out letters along the lines of "You signed a contract to purchase for 1.3M and failed to close. We were able to sell the unit for 1.0M. While you are contractually obligated to pay the difference (300K), if you pay us 250K, we can avoid court. If you choose to proceed with trial (as is your right), we will be seeking 300K+interest+lawyer fees (estimated to be 50K). You have 30 days to get us a cheque or we will be filing the case in civil court."
 
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mimico_polak said:
Think I'm gonna add some bedrooms to my house....13 bedrooms in an 1100sqft bungalow in Calgary...


How's this **** allowed?
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Interesting. 13 rentable rooms and a 500K asking price could work out well for the landlord. I hope the fire department has inspected that. Basement windows don't look ideal for egress and there is only a single staircase. Hopefully it is walkable as the neighbours would hate you with 13 cars scattered around. Three toilets and two showers for 13+ unrelated people living together would be rough. No pics of inside, listing doesn't promise vacant possession and no comment on legality of conversion. Those are big red flags.
 
GreyGhost said:
Interesting. 13 rentable rooms and a 500K asking price could work out well for the landlord. I hope the fire department has inspected that. Basement windows don't look ideal for egress and there is only a single staircase. Hopefully it is walkable as the neighbours would hate you with 13 cars scattered around. Three toilets and two showers for 13+ unrelated people living together would be rough. No pics of inside, listing doesn't promise vacant possession and no comment on legality of conversion. Those are big red flags.
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If they scrap the R-1 to allow apartments without having sufficient parking the streets get plugged. It's worse in the suburbs where pubic transit is a joke.
 
nobbie48 said:
If they scrap the R-1 to allow apartments without having sufficient parking the streets get plugged. It's worse in the suburbs where pubic transit is a joke.
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As part of scrapping R1, they should also switch to either permit parking for all street parking or no overnight parking. If you want to put in 13 bedrooms, that's ok but you still only have driveway space for two cars (or four with lifts). You figure it out (and no, you can't buy 11 parking permits, there should be a cap for each address, probably two or less).
 
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