COVID and the housing market

Over 1 million mortgages will renew in 2025 . You’ll see the flames from outer space . My mortgage broker gal pal is predicting for sale signs like an American election . Big and everywhere.


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If all goes as is (expected cuts) I expect 5 year fixed rates in the 3s in 2025 with some shopping around. So maybe 1% to 1.5% higher then they are now and many--even most can likely deal with that. I think 2025/26 renewal people dodged the worst of it.

Now if things don't keep going as is and they raise rates or even just hold them....
 
If all goes as is (expected cuts) I expect 5 year fixed rates in the 3s in 2025 with some shopping around. So maybe 1% to 1.5% higher then they are now and many--even most can likely deal with that. I think 2025/26 renewal people dodged the worst of it.

Now if things don't keep going as is and they raise rates or even just hold them....
Maybe…my parents mortgage (<300k) increased $400/month. That’s low.

My mortgage went 2.79 -> 1.1 -> 5.9 (980 -> 802 -> 1265 biweekly) on a <500k mortgage.

Many people have more than 500k mortgage / LOC so even 1-2% bump can be VERY painful for them.

Not only that, once the LOC lifestyle gets going it’s hard to step away from it.

I expect a lot of pain in 2025 unless rates drop hard.

If I can find a fixed in the low 3s and mid to high 2s I’m locking in.

Not taking that ride again.
 
If I can find a fixed in the low 3s and mid to high 2s I’m locking in.
I don't think there's a single forecast predicting fixed rates that low from legit lenders and without crazy penalty clauses. Most seem to be predicting fairly flat numbers, maybe a drop at most by a half percent from the low- to mid-4's available now. Add to that, the expected corporate tax cuts in the US (which the inevitable Conservative government here will likely try to match) will lead to running significant deficits, which will raise bond yields and stop fixed rates from going too low.

It's kind of a mixed bag for what I'm hoping for, as a strong economy will keep rates higher, and lower rates will only come if things are struggling. There's a pretty good chance that variable will be the way to go for the next few years if rates drop but bond yields stay high, but with global volatility growing (especially if Trump tariffs start to antagonise China in a major way, or they find a way to take control of Taiwan), I might prefer to play it safe with a higher fixed rate so I can sleep better...
 
I don't think there's a single forecast predicting fixed rates that low from legit lenders and without crazy penalty clauses. Most seem to be predicting fairly flat numbers, maybe a drop at most by a half percent from the low- to mid-4's available now. Add to that, the expected corporate tax cuts in the US (which the inevitable Conservative government here will likely try to match) will lead to running significant deficits, which will raise bond yields and stop fixed rates from going too low.

It's kind of a mixed bag for what I'm hoping for, as a strong economy will keep rates higher, and lower rates will only come if things are struggling. There's a pretty good chance that variable will be the way to go for the next few years if rates drop but bond yields stay high, but with global volatility growing (especially if Trump tariffs start to antagonise China in a major way, or they find a way to take control of Taiwan), I might prefer to play it safe with a higher fixed rate so I can sleep better...
I agree. I don’t expect rates to drop down for fixed 5 year below 3% unless things really **** the bed.

There are smarter people on here and elsewhere that may know better…but I don’t expect to see those rates any time soon.

As such I’m sticking with variable for the foreseeable future. I doubt very much I’ll go back to 5.9% as a fixed rate (Prime of 7.2% at the peak).
 
ChatGTP poos the bed...

Asked what is the prime rate at Tangerine...

1731092315003.png

Meanwhile reality is that it's 5.95%. Big difference.

So my current mortgage is 4.65% and equal a payment of $1120 or so bi/weekly. That's $144/biweekly already within the last few months.

So let's see what happens.
 
ChatGTP poos the bed...

Asked what is the prime rate at Tangerine...

View attachment 70893

Meanwhile reality is that it's 5.95%. Big difference.

So my current mortgage is 4.65% and equal a payment of $1120 or so bi/weekly. That's $144/biweekly already within the last few months.

So let's see what happens.
AI models have serious constraints on new information. Their database is historic. More recent versions require paying. Afaik, none are remotely real-time. Part of its answer should have included the date it was considering but that would make it look less magically useful and hurt valuations.
 
I'm still not convinced about the fire and brimstone. Yes, rates will be higher when they renew but 2-3% below the recent peaks. My mortgage went up $1000 at renewal. I suspect many more will have a similar bump (lower starting rate, lower renewal rate). It hurts but it's also survivable. If you sell after buying at the peak, paying LTT, paying RE agents and lawyers, you will be well underwater. Rent (on a much smaller dwelling) plus payments on the loan many would need to cover the shortfall (at a crap rate as it's unsecured) would exceed the monthly outlay for mortgage at the higher rate. Dumping toys/possessions can cover the cashflow issue for a bit.
A thousand dollars is bout $60 hours on minimum wage per month. You won't have any free weekends but you'll keep the house. Of course taxes will affect the numbers unless there is a mercy clause somewhere in the CRA. Haha.

The taxes may be covered by you not having any time to spend any money.

For more details talk to an immigrant
 
Maybe…my parents mortgage (<300k) increased $400/month. That’s low.

My mortgage went 2.79 -> 1.1 -> 5.9 (980 -> 802 -> 1265 biweekly) on a <500k mortgage.

Many people have more than 500k mortgage / LOC so even 1-2% bump can be VERY painful for them.

Not only that, once the LOC lifestyle gets going it’s hard to step away from it.

I expect a lot of pain in 2025 unless rates drop hard.

If I can find a fixed in the low 3s and mid to high 2s I’m locking in.

Not taking that ride again.
When we bought our present house the rates were 13% but soared to 22% but came down to 12.5% at renewal.

When I bought my shop IIRC the rates were around 10%. We worked our arses off to pay down the principles.

Next on the worrywart list, read up on hyper inflation. Of course that could never happen here, just like double digit mortgages.
 
AI models have serious constraints on new information. Their database is historic. More recent versions require paying. Afaik, none are remotely real-time. Part of its answer should have included the date it was considering but that would make it look less magically useful and hurt valuations.

It really pisses me off when I see people in the work place rely on AI too much.
Folks who barely manage to speak properly when in person somehow manage to copy / paste 'extravagant' emails with language one typically wouldn't use.

I have no issues with using AI as a guideline when coding or looking for some guidance when creating slide decks...but atleast have some dignity and make an attempt to use different verbiage lol.
 
Here is an interesting Toronto semi:

44 Branstone Road--Asking 599K listed as-is but looks OKish in the pics with some minor flipper flags (so why as-is??).
Area is IMO not too bad, just nothing special, lots of semis.
I checked for open city permits and there is just one for the front porch that is listed as Not Passed Nov 13, 2024. Reading between the lines (basement electrical rough in the listing) leads me to believe ESA is open or ???
Price history tells a bit of a story (possible flip gone south):

1732648289355.png
BTW why I strongly believe former inactive and terminated listings are important...
 
BTW why I strongly believe former inactive and terminated listings are important...
Me too. Agents have a way to burn history now. You can see something happened but the price, listing and status all get purged. I haven't figured out how or why this happens. An agent may have two houses close to each other and purges one but leaves the data up for the other.

EDIT:
As per that specific listing, there is something hokey going on with electrical. No receptacles in some rooms, loose surface mount BX in other rooms. Based on the pic of the front it's also a weird semi. Looks like 1/3, 2/3 split instead of 1/2. 22' wide lot including a driveway and that means inside of house is likely <10' wide.

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Here is an interesting Toronto semi:

44 Branstone Road--Asking 599K listed as-is but looks OKish in the pics with some minor flipper flags (so why as-is??).
Area is IMO not too bad, just nothing special, lots of semis.
I checked for open city permits and there is just one for the front porch that is listed as Not Passed Nov 13, 2024. Reading between the lines (basement electrical rough in the listing) leads me to believe ESA is open or ???
Price history tells a bit of a story (possible flip gone south):

View attachment 71188
BTW why I strongly believe former inactive and terminated listings are important...
Some odd stuff from Google maps street view. The lot appears to be half of the 40 footer. The driveway may be shared with the other half. The satellite view shows a better split but the front brick count (3 bricks = 2 feet) says 10 feet. That is scary small when you lose a foot + to walls.

Aug 2024 shows no veranda or landing, just steps to grade level.

Maybe the flipper realized it wasn't the wild west and decided to cut his losses.

If it can be occupied and especially if the basement can be rented out, it would have more financial potential than an apartment or condo. The new owner would need to DIY for it to work. If they ever finish the cross town ditch, Eglinton is only 5 minute walk away.

I just noticed a couple of protruding bricks a few feet up from the front door sill. That door might have been a window and the detached house converted to a semi. That would explain the driveway situation. If you look at the house the front elevation would be very normal if the white door was replaced by a window. The brown door would be centred on the front of the building.

Anyone want to guess if a Kevin has been involved.




I would be very cautious about what would be needed to be legally safe.
 

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Here is an interesting Toronto semi:

44 Branstone Road--Asking 599K listed as-is but looks OKish in the pics with some minor flipper flags (so why as-is??).
Area is IMO not too bad, just nothing special, lots of semis.
I checked for open city permits and there is just one for the front porch that is listed as Not Passed Nov 13, 2024. Reading between the lines (basement electrical rough in the listing) leads me to believe ESA is open or ???
Price history tells a bit of a story (possible flip gone south):

View attachment 71188
BTW why I strongly believe former inactive and terminated listings are important...
Listing that I see has 'As Is' tacked on to the end of the description. Major red flag, definitely something for a realtor to check into.

When we were buying in BC back in 2015, we looked at a very low-priced house that had a similar caveat. Turned out it was a former grow-op (twice, actually!) and had been flagged as such. Even though they had done a full back-to-the-studs reno, and had photographic records, it was enough that it made getting a mortgage a lot more complex. If you had cash, planned to stay for a long time, and were willing to sacrifice resale value, it could have been a bargain for the right buyer.
 
Some odd stuff from Google maps street view. The lot appears to be half of the 40 footer. The driveway may be shared with the other half. The satellite view shows a better split but the front brick count (3 bricks = 2 feet) says 10 feet. That is scary small when you lose a foot + to walls.

Aug 2024 shows no veranda or landing, just steps to grade level.

Maybe the flipper realized it wasn't the wild west and decided to cut his losses.

If it can be occupied and especially if the basement can be rented out, it would have more financial potential than an apartment or condo. The new owner would need to DIY for it to work. If they ever finish the cross town ditch, Eglinton is only 5 minute walk away.

I just noticed a couple of protruding bricks a few feet up from the front door sill. That door might have been a window and the detached house converted to a semi. That would explain the driveway situation. If you look at the house the front elevation would be very normal if the white door was replaced by a window. The brown door would be centred on the front of the building.

Anyone want to guess if a Kevin has been involved.




I would be very cautious about what would be needed to be legally safe.
If you look back in Google that new front door was in fact a window, back in Feb 2021 it was a window. I was thinking the same thing that this was a detached house that somehow got split into a semi. That split would be an issue for the lawyer to check into.

Deeper looking, along the driveway there is also what looks like a bunch of new mortar and maybe new brick, another potential red flag. Back in 2019 it looks like damaged brick.
 
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After my mom died I listed her house as 'where is, as is'. It was in ok shape but the interior was all 60s. I just wasnt about to put a cent into it to make it look more 'sell-able'
Around us it is common as boomers are aging out. The house is in good shape and very well maintained but many of the mechanicals are way out of date, plus old-timey/original kitchen and bathrooms. K&T, galvanized and maybe lead plumbing, old boiler, likely some tasty asbestos--they mostly need to be addressed, not all day one, but the upgrade cost can be much less than the as-is where-is discount for the right buyer. Seller (or estate) does not want any of the hassle.
 
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If you look back in Google that new front door was in fact a window, back in Feb 2021 it was a window. I was thinking the same thing that this was a detached house that somehow got split into a semi. That split would be an issue for the lawyer to check into.

Deeper looking, along the driveway there is also what looks like a bunch of new mortar and maybe new brick, another potential red flag. Back in 2019 it looks like damaged brick.
The physical issues can be resolved but the legalities could become a battle of attrition. I’d be very interested in the status of the other half.

I’d be interested in seeing the deeds first.
 
If you look back in Google that new front door was in fact a window, back in Feb 2021 it was a window. I was thinking the same thing that this was a detached house that somehow got split into a semi. That split would be an issue for the lawyer to check into.

Deeper looking, along the driveway there is also what looks like a bunch of new mortar and maybe new brick, another potential red flag. Back in 2019 it looks like damaged brick.
Sadly, they took what was probably a nice well laid out house and divided it into turds. One turd on the left and two turds on the right.
 
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