COVID and the housing market | Page 391 | GTAMotorcycle.com

COVID and the housing market

Over 1 million mortgages will renew in 2025 . You’ll see the flames from outer space . My mortgage broker gal pal is predicting for sale signs like an American election . Big and everywhere.


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If all goes as is (expected cuts) I expect 5 year fixed rates in the 3s in 2025 with some shopping around. So maybe 1% to 1.5% higher then they are now and many--even most can likely deal with that. I think 2025/26 renewal people dodged the worst of it.

Now if things don't keep going as is and they raise rates or even just hold them....
 
If all goes as is (expected cuts) I expect 5 year fixed rates in the 3s in 2025 with some shopping around. So maybe 1% to 1.5% higher then they are now and many--even most can likely deal with that. I think 2025/26 renewal people dodged the worst of it.

Now if things don't keep going as is and they raise rates or even just hold them....
Maybe…my parents mortgage (<300k) increased $400/month. That’s low.

My mortgage went 2.79 -> 1.1 -> 5.9 (980 -> 802 -> 1265 biweekly) on a <500k mortgage.

Many people have more than 500k mortgage / LOC so even 1-2% bump can be VERY painful for them.

Not only that, once the LOC lifestyle gets going it’s hard to step away from it.

I expect a lot of pain in 2025 unless rates drop hard.

If I can find a fixed in the low 3s and mid to high 2s I’m locking in.

Not taking that ride again.
 
If I can find a fixed in the low 3s and mid to high 2s I’m locking in.
I don't think there's a single forecast predicting fixed rates that low from legit lenders and without crazy penalty clauses. Most seem to be predicting fairly flat numbers, maybe a drop at most by a half percent from the low- to mid-4's available now. Add to that, the expected corporate tax cuts in the US (which the inevitable Conservative government here will likely try to match) will lead to running significant deficits, which will raise bond yields and stop fixed rates from going too low.

It's kind of a mixed bag for what I'm hoping for, as a strong economy will keep rates higher, and lower rates will only come if things are struggling. There's a pretty good chance that variable will be the way to go for the next few years if rates drop but bond yields stay high, but with global volatility growing (especially if Trump tariffs start to antagonise China in a major way, or they find a way to take control of Taiwan), I might prefer to play it safe with a higher fixed rate so I can sleep better...
 
I don't think there's a single forecast predicting fixed rates that low from legit lenders and without crazy penalty clauses. Most seem to be predicting fairly flat numbers, maybe a drop at most by a half percent from the low- to mid-4's available now. Add to that, the expected corporate tax cuts in the US (which the inevitable Conservative government here will likely try to match) will lead to running significant deficits, which will raise bond yields and stop fixed rates from going too low.

It's kind of a mixed bag for what I'm hoping for, as a strong economy will keep rates higher, and lower rates will only come if things are struggling. There's a pretty good chance that variable will be the way to go for the next few years if rates drop but bond yields stay high, but with global volatility growing (especially if Trump tariffs start to antagonise China in a major way, or they find a way to take control of Taiwan), I might prefer to play it safe with a higher fixed rate so I can sleep better...
I agree. I don’t expect rates to drop down for fixed 5 year below 3% unless things really **** the bed.

There are smarter people on here and elsewhere that may know better…but I don’t expect to see those rates any time soon.

As such I’m sticking with variable for the foreseeable future. I doubt very much I’ll go back to 5.9% as a fixed rate (Prime of 7.2% at the peak).
 
ChatGTP poos the bed...

Asked what is the prime rate at Tangerine...

1731092315003.png

Meanwhile reality is that it's 5.95%. Big difference.

So my current mortgage is 4.65% and equal a payment of $1120 or so bi/weekly. That's $144/biweekly already within the last few months.

So let's see what happens.
 
ChatGTP poos the bed...

Asked what is the prime rate at Tangerine...

View attachment 70893

Meanwhile reality is that it's 5.95%. Big difference.

So my current mortgage is 4.65% and equal a payment of $1120 or so bi/weekly. That's $144/biweekly already within the last few months.

So let's see what happens.
AI models have serious constraints on new information. Their database is historic. More recent versions require paying. Afaik, none are remotely real-time. Part of its answer should have included the date it was considering but that would make it look less magically useful and hurt valuations.
 

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