COVID and the housing market

[Mikedezo44]

Back on watches - I keep waiting for the price of a GMT Pepsi or Batman to be sub $15k again, and then I'd consider buying one. Some Rolex's are dropping fast from their peak, others not so much...

Exactly what I want. Could’ve had a Pepsi for $14,000 5 years ago and told myself I wasn’t going to let someone make 3k on me off a 11k watch.. then when they went up to 24-25k during covid I was kicking myself. Will buy if can ever get one for 14-15 again.

 

[AllistonGT]

Exactly what I want. Could’ve had a Pepsi for $14,000 5 years ago and told myself I wasn’t going to let someone make 3k on me off a 11k watch.. then when they went up to 24-25k during covid I was kicking myself. Will buy if can ever get one for 14-15 again.

You'll have to get one from the grey market or second hand because the new ones are sold out the AD's back door to those grey dealers.

 

[backmarkerducati]

I have a speedmaster professional with the hesalite crystal , I like it but I wear my seamaster more often .
I really dig the seagull , I have a Kinyun chinese watch with a tourbillion auto movement , that style movemnet out of the swiss , 5K to start, out of china $179.
Seagull is stupidly reliable , in the $350? range

Yes, mine was $400 cdn at my door, purchased from a US seller I have used many times before, that will stand behind it if there are problems and I would rather they get my business. They can be had cheaper, as low as $150 on aliexpress. The movements are all Seagull ST19s but different people are casing them and there is some debate over who should...
****
For any luxury watch out there the industry is going through the same COVID stuff that drove up prices (including used and grey market) plus it looks to me the luxury brands learned from the quartz crisis in the 70s and have moved up scale in price to combat smart watches. Ironically, but explainable, quartz watch sales are being slaughtered by smart watches, higher end mechanical is doing quite well.

Grey market used to be cheaper as they were watches the dealers could not move, now they are more like stubhub and seem to have the ones that are selling out fast and no one can get (sometimes 3X premium!).... There is some risk here as some counterfeits now come with counterfeit boxes and papers, so you need to be an informed buyer. I can still spot a counterfeit pretty quickly but the average person??? Always buy the seller not the item, don't buy counterfeit instead buy something cool like the Seagull or a Tissot PRX and don't degrade your personal brand or integrity.

For anyone buying or thinking of buying higher end I predict the prices will come down as supply chain and shortages come around. Also higher interest rates and economy will have an impact, maybe even more so on the used market, which is crazy now. Right now I can sell "vintage" ones I bought used over a decade ago for more than 3 times what I paid for them, used prices are crazy.

 

[backmarkerducati]

Nice watch @backmarkerducati where’d you score that?

I think I’ll start putting away $100/month and maybe by my 50th I’ll have enough for a Speedmaster / Moonwatch.

I’m 42….

They switched the new Speedmaster Pro to the co-axial movement and jacked the price. If you get an older used 1861 or older yet 861 (what I have) movement used you can get a better deal. Sadly, used is selling for what new was just a few years ago ($3K to 6K). My buddy got one (1861) at Costco (grey market) a few years back for $3,400 CDN.

Of course there is always the Omega x Swatch MoonSwatch in the meantime..... some hate it some love it. Same problem though, good luck finding one retail right now. If I could get them retail I would likely buy one for each kid (no way I am paying jacked used prices, plus even these have been counterfeited--scum bags). The introduction was pure crazy with massive line-ups etc.

Omega X Swatch to the Planets with the Bioceramic MoonSwatch collection

Reach for the space and explore the universe with Omega X Swatch. Dream big and fly high with iconic Speedmaster and new MoonSwatch watches.

www.swatch.com

 

[crankcall]

The omega / swatch speedy , put me in the hate category. Superb marketing but it has me considering moving my speedy off , 2021 speedmaster full kit LOL still under warranty.

I’m wanted a submariner no date , I have a Tudor sub , it’s almost similar. New they are 9k , used 12-15k , lot of grey market at 15-17new . I have an issue giving a guy 6-9k profit flipping a watch , I don’t need it that badly.


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[timtune]

Never worn a watch. This is as close as I've come.

I don't wear a watch either (or carry a cell phone).
I'm retired. I always know what time it is - Break Time! Who's up for a smoke......

 

[killvino]

Recently acquired

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Nice.
Nothing else like them. Love the looks of the luminor but will never buy a Panerai due to their business practices and value for price.

 

[Sochi]

G-shock fan here - this is my last one - full metal with bluetooth and solar power - what else do you need from the watch
[I know, I know mech auto watche is art, bla bla, I do have mechanicals too but only Jap again - Seiko and Grand Seiko)

 

[GreyGhost]

G-shock fan here - this is my last one - full metal with bluetooth and solar power - what else do you need from the watch
[I know, I know mech auto watche is art, bla bla, I do have mechanicals too but only Jap again - Seiko and Grand Seiko)

View attachment 59146

I don't love the hybrid analog/digital watches. For the Garmin instinct hybrid, they spin the hands out the way when you are interacting with the screen but I still don't like it. That's making the best of a bad situation.

When I started wearing smart watches, I had them on my right wrist because left wrist had an analog watch and that smart watch looked more like a wide bracelet than a watch. The replacement smart watch looks more like a g-shock so I ditched analog watches most of the time so I don't look like a knob. If I wear a suit (which happens rarely) smartwatch comes off and good watch goes on. Smart watch still lives on right wrist. Honestly, it doesn't seem to make much difference to me which arm a watch is on.

 

[mimico_polak]

G-shock fan here - this is my last one - full metal with bluetooth and solar power - what else do you need from the watch
[I know, I know mech auto watche is art, bla bla, I do have mechanicals too but only Jap again - Seiko and Grand Seiko)

View attachment 59146

Love the GShock watches personally. Got my eye on a nice orange one that I’ve seen. Maybe the red as my cousin has the orange.

 

[crankcall]

I can’t wear a G shock , it’s too over styled for me , I find Brietling too busy in some models . Richard Mille is way too complicated looking . I like to glance down and see the time of day , I’m not needing altitude, a split timer or the moon phase in Kukkaburra .


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[GreyGhost]

I can’t wear a G shock , it’s too over styled for me , I find Brietling too busy in some models . Richard Mille is way too complicated looking . I like to glance down and see the time of day , I’m not needing altitude, a split timer or the moon phase in Kukkaburra .


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Before smartwatches I used a g-shock when travelling. Reasonably cheap, super durable, backup watch when diving and super easy to switch time zones. Prior to kids my wife and I did some trips where we were changing time zones every day or two. Sure, you could update the clock but then you really lose touch with what time it is back home as you can't remember how many hours offset you have saved in the watch. A poor mans sky-dweller in function. Even if I had a sky-dweller, I don't take expensive things on vacation unless there is a need (eg dive computer flies with me if I plan on diving as I trust my gear but trust rental gear/staff less).

 

[mimico_polak]

My very humble collection compared to the ballers up in here…

 

[crankcall]

There is a whole collector thing around those 80s Casio digital watches , which I don’t get , but the market is the market

Depending on where we will travel , and who we are with I’ll have a nice watch on or a beater watch I can live without .

If we are diving in the first world I’ll trust the computers they issue and manage . I still wear an analog watch , I’m old school that way . If we are “ out there “ I’ll use a watch and a depth gauge and do a plan. I’m usually a two a day max guy and unless there is a reason I’m shallow water these days -50ft .


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[timtune]

A few years into our marriage I lost the second "expensive" watch the Squeeze gave me. That pretty much ended me and watches. I don't recall the kind of watch but considering that time in our lives I doubt any of the watch ballers here would place it high on the list. I do have a couple of my Dad's watches in my dresser. Not sure what they are and don't care, to me they're priceless.

 

[mimico_polak]

My buddy slipped up and posted an FB photo of his $1500 watch (as he complains he's poor).

I asked him about it, and he said he sold the bike, and now is on some FB used watch groups and they swap every few months. He also wants to be able to leave something for his two boys after he passes.

I'll be honest it made me consider doing the same. Right now there's nothing of a 'family heirloom' to pass down to the next generation.

 

[Jampy00]

For most of my life I never wore a watch (due to the work I did) and I never saw any value in them.
Now that I am older and fatter I wear a fitbit as I walk to work etc.. it does what I need.
I will say I love the look of a overly complicated mechanical watch..

 

[GreyGhost]

My buddy slipped up and posted an FB photo of his $1500 watch (as he complains he's poor).

I asked him about it, and he said he sold the bike, and now is on some FB used watch groups and they swap every few months. He also wants to be able to leave something for his two boys after he passes.

I'll be honest it made me consider doing the same. Right now there's nothing of a 'family heirloom' to pass down to the next generation.

Imo a $1500 watch is not a good family heirloom. It can be precious to the next generation as dads watch but after that, it is money in a box and will likely get sold (or wrecked depending on the caretaker). A cheaper watch won't get sold. It is in an awkward price range with lots of turds that will have little monetary value so it may be ok. Even then, a few generations later, it's hard to get them to care and the chance of maintenance being completed is very low.

A friend has their dads Patek in a safe deposit box. It is sacred to them and will never be sold no matter how tough times are. I just want to see the damn thing but because it's locked up, I've never had the opportunity. They have all girls. Now, as watches have grown so much, women could wear a vintage mans watch without turning heads so that isn't a complete dead end. Do you pass a car priced watch to one of the kids though? Kids are good kids but not on a path to excess wealth. Do they liquidate the watch and each take a third of the money? Highly likely imo. It's really hard to be struggling and have that much money tied up.

My FIL gave his dads watch to his son (a nice rado that he had serviced prior to gifting). He wears it daily and I don't have high hopes for its continued survival. I also do not expect it to be serviced ever again. FIL has an Omega Constellation Quartz. I have no interest in it. He wore it on occasion but there is no huge emotional connection (and I don't care for expensive quartz watches). My dad's watch was a quartz seiko. Something happened and it flooded. Movement is not salvageable. Honestly, if it isn't in the garbage already, there is a good chance it will end up there. The watch didn't make the man (imo it would be different if he worked on the railway and had his official timepiece).

I had my grandfathers Cyma Automatic but it was stolen during a break-in. Bollocks. I liked it but I'm not on the hunt to replace it.

Knife/blanket/carving/small furniture/etc can have a personal connection, likely won't get sold and is only moved around on special occasions so it is less likely to get wrecked or lost. I have a blanket made by a great great great grandfather made on a loom (circa 1860-1880). It was on the guest bed prior to kids but now lives in a cedar chest as I don't trust them not to jump on it or drag it around.

 

[crankcall]

I have two pocket watches , one from each grandfather , niether particularly valuable , I think about selling but they wouldnt net enough to buy me a new watch. Wifes family owned a jewelery store from 1900 somthing till the 70's in Stratford, FIL had a Rolex from the 1930s he was gifted when he entered the Navy and later gave to a nieghbour in Florida that was a "watch guy" , they were likely both drunk. I'm not sure either of my kids will keep my collection , son may keep a fav , but he wouldnt follow up on maintenence . Who knows 40yrs from now they may be worthless. I'll enjoy them for what they are .

 

[crankcall]

as a PS... yes there are some very baller watches out there , and in here , but there are also some very cool $2-500 watches that are equally fun. A lot of watches I own mark milestones in my life , staying with the same wife for 25yrs , paying out the mortgage, 25yrs in the same business. I could get tatoos , but they are harder to change .