COVID and the housing market | Page 272 | GTAMotorcycle.com

COVID and the housing market

crankcall said:
I’d say the house vs salary in the GTA is now exponentially out of whack . My first house was about 5x my wife and I annual income, it would now be a lot more .

I also wonder if expectations have changed . We had a 3bd 1 bath originally, nobody has or builds 1 bath now


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Selling our old house was a pain in the ass as it had no main floor bath (one up, one down). The vast majority of people looking completely ruled it out on that point alone. It seems to have become less of an issue as it resold less than three years later for 80% more with very little changed. Footprint was only 22x24 so a main floor bath would have made the main floor miserable. For the price it is now, I would add an extension (garage is offset ~6' from house so fill in a portion of the sideyard) and add the bathroom outside of the existing footprint for >100k.
 
Anyone got any insight on the next few months in terms of material pricing?

@crankcall @Scuba Steve and @Mad Mike usually have some insight.

Wondering about getting into the 40k interest free loan for insulated siding and whether it’s something that would qualify and be worth to get.

I know I need an inspection, work, and re-inspection but would need to fit within the 40k.
 
GreyGhost said:
Another reasonably quick resale outside of barrie. Bought early 2021. Listed May 2022 for 35% more (no sale). Dropped price a few times, sold for ~20% more than 2021 sale. Not getting rich with the crazy transaction fees but anytime you can unwind real estate owned for less than five years and not lose your shirt, I'd call that an ownership win.
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Subtract RE fees and allow for land transfer fees for the new place, moving expenses, closing costs and the flipper market goes away.
 
nobbie48 said:
Subtract RE fees and allow for land transfer fees for the new place, moving expenses, closing costs and the flipper market goes away.
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As it should. In the vast majority of cases, they add no value (and probably destroy value more often than they create it). Its also an untaxed business which makes zero sense. They should basically be eliminated. Let them operate as the for profit business they are with licenses and permits. Tax the profits. Those that are good amd add value will keep going. Those that polish a turd will be eliminated.

When I post quick sales, there was normally minimal work done. Not sure if it was change in job, commute sucked, change in marriage, etc that triggered fast sale.
 
Jay Alexander said:
toronto+median+income.png
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Let's compare the historical data of median household income against the average selling price of homes in Toronto. You also mentioned the interest rates, which can be seen in the third image. The cost of homes have exploded compared to a small uptick of median salaries over the years. The interest rates, even compounded over a 30-year term, still cannot account for most of that chasm between income and house price.

I'm speaking for specifically GTA (Toronto, Peel, Durham, etc.), not Clarington, Keswick, etc. I'm not speaking as to relocating, or shifting the issue specifically, and that is that housing has exploded, even when factoring in income and interest rate changes.

I couldn't find data on household income since 2010. Also I never mentioned whether or not I'm trying to buy/already an owner. That's irrelevant.
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There isn't the right data in those graphs to draw the scenario for a first time buyer, the net is too wide. For a meaningful comparison you woul need data on entry level purchase which would be much lower, and DINK average income which would be much higher.

Average price could be double the entry cost of a starter home, DINK income would be substantially higher. I have 3 DINK kids in their 20s, their household incomes after tax are substantially higher.

Perhaps some of the folks who bought 30 years ago can share their stories.
 
Mikedezo44 said:
A turd like that deserves to have to sell every single thing he owns and pay back the people he owes. Sadly won't happen as I'm sure will continue to live in his likely multi million dollar home and drive fancy cars. :mad:
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Yup. It amazes me how people can do this and still not have to repay it.

Hang him.
 
Mad Mike said:
There isn't the right data in those graphs to draw the scenario for a first time buyer, the net is too wide. For a meaningful comparison you woul need data on entry level purchase which would be much lower, and DINK average income which would be much higher.

Average price could be double the entry cost of a starter home, DINK income would be substantially higher. I have 3 DINK kids in their 20s, their household incomes after tax are substantially higher.

Perhaps some of the folks who bought 30 years ago can share their stories.
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I prefer looking at empirical data over stories from previous buyers. The data supports the overall trend of stagnant wage growth in the backdrop of a skyrocketing housing market. Can't dispute the numbers.

If there's specific numbers for DINK scenarios/first-time buyers, I'm very interested in these data points as well.
 
Jay Alexander said:
I prefer looking at empirical data over stories from previous buyers. The data supports the overall trend of stagnant wage growth in the backdrop of a skyrocketing housing market. Can't dispute the numbers.

If there's specific numbers for DINK scenarios/first-time buyers, I'm very interested in these data points as well.
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Empirical Data comes from stories and experiences, ...not scienyigic studies and statisticians.

I'll start, you crunch the numbers. In 90 I bought a 1200sq house in Holland Landing, surrounded by mostly childless couples in their first homes. I was mid 20s, wife and I made about 80k after tax. Interest was 12.5% .

You can do the math.
 
Empirical data is derived from overall statistics. One data point is meaningless.

Stories and experiences are anecdotes.

I've already provided actual data points, and it appears that these have no bearing, so not sure what's left to say.

A crucial point in the equation is the purchase price that was left out. Check the purchase prices of houses in that same area, then compare against median salary for that area.

You do the math.
 
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Jay Alexander said:
Empirical data is derived from overall statistics. One data point is meaningless.

Stories and experiences are anecdotes.

I've already provided actual data points, and it appears that these have no bearing, so not sure what's left to say.

A crucial point in the equation is the purchase price that was left out. Check the purchase prices of houses in that same area, then compare against median salary for that area.

You do the math.
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Salary vs house price for a location is fatally flawed in most of southern Ontario. You need to look at salary within commuting distance. Very, very few people can afford to buy where they work. That is how hamilton and barrie come out on top of the least affordable lists as most residents are commuting towards toronto but the stats look at local jobs vs local dwelling prices.
 
Jay Alexander said:
Empirical data is derived from overall statistics. One data point is meaningless.

Stories and experiences are anecdotes.

I've already provided actual data points, and it appears that these have no bearing, so not sure what's left to say.

A crucial point in the equation is the purchase price that was left out. Check the purchase prices of houses in that same area, then compare against median salary for that area.

You do the math.
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300k.

2 of my 3 kids have houses, they are all in their 20s. My youngest (24) has a tny condo on king st near spadina, she paid 600k this year and carries it on her own at 2800/mo. My middle one has 3, 2 are rented with $400/mo positive cash flow each, the third he lives in and has no mortgage - he decided moving out of Toronto would give him a better life. The oldest rents, he's able to buy but not interested.

I helped the youngest with a $30k interest free loan, that got her in a year early.

My kids have several friends under 30 with houses. If one wants to own, it's possible
Back plan, discipline and willingness to tradeoff cars and vacations is a common theme for the youngsters in their own places.
 
GreyGhost said:
Salary vs house price for a location is fatally flawed in most of southern Ontario. You need to look at salary within commuting distance. Very, very few people can afford to buy where they work. That is how hamilton and barrie come out on top of the least affordable lists as most residents are commuting towards toronto but the stats look at local jobs vs local dwelling prices.
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Where are you getting this data from?

In terms of your/your kids' experiences, I'm not commenting on irrelevant personal experiences. This neither proves, nor disproves the actual topic at hand, which is house pricing vs median income today versus the historical figures.

For the purpose of staying on point, it's best to stay focused on what we're discussing, not moving goal posts. Let's stick to the data.
 
Jay Alexander said:
Where are you getting this data from?

In terms of your/your kids' experiences, I'm not commenting on irrelevant personal experiences. This neither proves, nor disproves the actual topic at hand, which is house pricing vs median income today versus the historical figures.

For the purpose of staying on point, it's best to stay focused on what we're discussing, not moving goal posts. Let's stick to the data.
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Have it your way, but all you're doing is having fun with statistics. In the real world, you're looking at a complex set of factors -- medians computed over a wide swath will help you prove just about anything you like (remember grade 9 Stats class?).

What matters to someone looking to enter the market is understanding 1) barriers to entry, which are typically down payment debt serviceability, and 2) overall affordability which is the carrying cost as a ratio to income. Then having a plan.
 
nobbie48 said:
The money will be well hidden.
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Probably. I have no problem with him being put on the "friends of the cra" list so he can get a deep probe of his finances every single year of the rest of his life. Having money hidden away is no fun if you never get to use it. Use it and the taxman comes after you and he didnt steal nearly enough to get preferential treatment there.
 
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