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Coronavirus
- Thread starter nobbie48
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First read this: How one small Italian town cut coronavirus cases to zero in just a few weeks
TL : DR They did it by testing EVERYone in the town, and isolating those people completely (quarantine) while the remaining citizens followed the same lockdown that the rest of Italy did (which avoided cross-contamination with citizens of adjacent towns). Initially 3% of the residents were found to be infected (and this was in late February, surely it would be more now had nothing been done) and many were asymptomatic. Now ... No coronavirus left. And it's only 3 weeks later.
This was a village of 3300 people. (Big enough to have ~100 people found to have the virus - and to have one death, the country's first; that's what prompted this). Coronavirus - Gone!
The problem is that we cannot test tens of millions of people in Canada, hundreds of millions in the USA. The only way to do it without that ... Three weeks total separation. Only way to do that, or even come close ... Everything needs to stop!
"Banks are an essential service" the virus doesn't care. "xxx is an essential service" the virus doesn't care. "grocery stores are essential" stock up, the virus doesn't care.
What you're saying is 100% correct, the sad truth is that shutting down the country for a few weeks is going to have devastating effects on our economy. So the question becomes do we wait for the virus to get infinitely worse, wait for people to start dying en masse, and then shut down and wreak havoc on the economy. Or do we shut down now, wreak havoc on the economy, with the question mark lingering of whether it was ever necessary.
Personally, I'm a fan of the latter, but I can see the reasoning of why people are waiting for the former.
What do I know, I work for a non-essential business that is still running as normal.
This is unrealistic. There are always going to be idiots that don't self-isolate and continue spreading the disease, whether they are symptomatic or asymptomatic.
It just takes one infected person to restart the whole cycle all over again.
And judging from my social media feeds there are a lot more than just one person out there who thinks "this whole Coronavirus thing is MSM sensationalism" and are going about their lives as normal.
daught
Well-known member
What's stopping the virus from coming back after the isolation period? I doubt 3 weeks will eliminate every instance of the virus. Are we going to keep the borders closed until it's eliminated everywhere in the world? Are we going to repeat the isolation cycle every 2 months?
Maybe a vaccine will be made that will bring the death rate down to an "acceptable" level like the flu. We might have concurrent strains of the flu in the future. We have been living with the flu for a while. At what point we accept it and go on with life?
Maybe a vaccine will be made that will bring the death rate down to an "acceptable" level like the flu. We might have concurrent strains of the flu in the future. We have been living with the flu for a while. At what point we accept it and go on with life?
The upside to the complete lockdown is you can let people move beforehand. Sure you may spread the virus, but it will die out during the lockdown. Move to a location you can stay for three weeks, stock up, lock up. Health, ambulance, police split into teams. Team A works the three weeks of the lockdown and has no interaction with anyone outside of team A. At the end of the lockdown, Team A goes into isolation for 3 weeks (no contact with anyone ideally, definitely noone outside of Team A or the whole thing was a waste). Team B takes over and has no interaction with anyone on Team A. Done.
Wife got groceries today. No flour, no bread, no TP, no milk.
That's going to be hard for a lot but for us I'm aiming for one shopping trip a week, off hours for thinner crowds, We're retired and have a house so cabin fever includes a back yard and shed. Fridge, freezer and knowing how to cook, even bake bread, helps. With time on our hands some of the cooking could be gourmet. Not what I would choose but look for the silver linings. No excuse for not shrinking the honey-do list. Free long distance lets us catch up with friends and family.
At the end of the three weeks, everyone that had it should be recovered (or dead).
The outside timeframe for life to return to normal socially should be ~ one year for a vaccine. Economically much much longer.
The border stays closed until either vaccine widely deployed or you are happy with the associated country on the other side (eg. US does the same isolation, no new cases reported for two weeks, open it up). If US opens travel to another country that hasn't followed protocol, slam the door again.
When are the left going to protest to get "Spanish flu" changed to another name?
Maybe they should be outraged at the cause of this pandemic:
Eastern culture and its obsession with eating wild animals from wet markets. Stressed out animals who normally dont interact with each other, all being held captive and slaughtered in the same place , with no regard for hygiene is always a recipe for a viral disaster. Maybe I am just being un-PC
That's a start of the protocols and more will be needed. On line groceries with no contact pick up for example. For those not familiar with on line shopping a help line. Etc etc.
Not being retired means working as much as possible during the day while watching the kids and continuing to work until midnight to try to get things done.
Limited shopping trips means we are eating a pork loin a different way every day until it is done. The family is quickly losing happiness for pork loin. It is not my meat of choice, but that is what the store had on shopping day.
I'll get my friend with a plane to pick me up and bugger off to nowhere QC. Once society loses touch with common values, driving is too dangerous (eg. if someone is standing in the road, are you really going to mow them down? The good guys always lose.)
Will robots be putting the food in the bags? Self driving cars delivering it?
Full Bingo card.
The ideal case of identifying and totally quarantining every person who has the virus would mean that after the quarantine period, those people would either have beaten the infection (healed - no more infection - no longer contagious) or dead (no longer contagious). It was possible in a village of 3300 people. Yes, it's probably not viable for a whole country, but the closer we can get the better off we are.
WE HOPE (and that's all we can do) that a person who has had this virus and beaten it, becomes immune to it for at least some period of time. Happens with other viruses. That's what means a re-infection (due to imperfect quarantine/isolation) would be less severe. It means R0 would be expected to be lower the next time (because some portion of the people that an infectious person is exposed to it, is immune to it the second time around). If R0 can be gotten below 1.0, the infection doesn't spread. (It's estimated to be around 2.5 for this virus)
If that Italian village had 3% infection rate in late February (100 individuals, most of whom didn't know it) it would surely be higher now ... No one knows how many people have really been infected with this but never got sick from it. Statistically (based on average for all of Italy) one in 2000 people is an official coronavirus case ... and it was one in 60,000 at the end of February when that village started this. We know they're not evenly distributed through the country but it's all we've got to work with. And it suggests that this virus is waaaayyy more prevalent than anyone knows ...
And you know what? That is actually a GOOD thing. It probably means the population builds immunity faster than the official case numbers would suggest.
We got thanked today for isolating ourselves, a car dealership called us to ask about a service and we told them we couldn’t come in. That was nice, didn’t even think about it. Had a chat with a neighbour that dropped off supplies from about 6 ft away through the door, the new normal. Talked to the dog walker we have given more work to through the patio door and assured him we have disinfected everything he touches. Postponed work on the house for the workers own safety. This is it for the next little while.
I was sceptical at first about how serious this could be but I’ve read and educated myself and now I’m pretty scared to be honest. The latest news about aerial longevity is really not good.
This is the only way to deal with things while we slowly develop herd immunity and while a vaccine is prepared and researched. Unfortunately the really sceptical ones will only change their minds when someone close to them is trying to breathe with liquid in their lungs and nothing that worked before is having an effect.
I have plans for my summer that involve long bike rides to isolated places with a packed lunch on my own, maybe with a tent. To be honest, I'm really looking forward to it.
Hack
Well-known member
What size of trailer could I pull with a FJR1300..?
That's fine, you're all on Team A then.
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