Coronavirus

[GreyGhost]

Condos in the GTA will pull back for sure, too much supply in the pipeline, too much conversion back from short term rentals, too many frustrated with the 'condo life' in a pandemic. The house market is seeing an increase in demand from the migrating condo dwellers, it also has no short term rental surplus to be absorbed so prices will stay strong for a while.

The tricky part is what happens next? Can house prices hold without immigration? Can they hold if the short term rental market collapses? Can they hold if WFH means folks can move further out to cheaper small towns?

Who knows.

Single family homes in Toronto proper I think are invincible. House prices are still disgustingly low compared to some other major cities (like vancouver, new york, hong kong, etc). The burbs will probably be propped up for quite a while by people moving out of condos to get more space (or not die in a fire as they seem to be happening more often). Who will be buying all the condos without immigration? Investors may grab some but without tenants paying rent that covers the mortage/fees/taxes that won't be a huge market. I don't think condos can reliably count on huge price appreciation anymore to make them a viable investment even if they suck when looking at cash flow.

I think immigration will pick up again in a year or so. It will be interesting if there is pent-up demand/capacity and there is a huge surge or does it just resume where it left off.

 

[Mad Mike]

A few of my buddies are being told not to even bother thinking of returning back to work before 2022/23 because the companies are loving the WFH savings.

as for us, we’ve been extended to March with possibly September. It saddens me what’s happening, but the big boys and girls are snapping up failing businesses, buildings, and office space at an alarming rate. Whoever has money is going to make out like a bandit if they play their cars right. Hell I’d snap up a few condos if I could find the capital.

Yup. Most big employers allocate between 150 and 250sq' per employee desk. My wife's company sent home 600 people and converted them to permanent WFH. They cut occupancy costs from $7.2m to $1.08M for that group - 6mil straight to the bottom line.

 

[nobbie48]

A few of my buddies are being told not to even bother thinking of returning back to work before 2022/23 because the companies are loving the WFH savings.

as for us, we’ve been extended to March with possibly September. It saddens me what’s happening, but the big boys and girls are snapping up failing businesses, buildings, and office space at an alarming rate. Whoever has money is going to make out like a bandit if they play their cars right. Hell I’d snap up a few condos if I could find the capital.

It was a different market, industrial vs residential, but I bought an industrial unit in a recession at less than half what they were going for in the building stage. If you wanted industrial space it was rent free. just pay the taxes and maintenance. The owners were bleeding red ink. Keep in mind it was short term. If they found paying tenant you were out in a month.

At the annual general meeting I was talking to landlords that had been sucking up the tax and maintenance costs. Then there were the mortgage costs or loss of interest at 10% to 12%. A ten year vacancy equals the purchase price

Modest priced residential is different as even with a recession people will need a place to live even if they don't need a place to work.

The advantage to industrial commercial is the there are no landlord tenant committees.

Long term real estate is usually a good investment. In the odd case a highway change or other unforeseen event can create a white elephant.

 

[nobbie48]

It's one thing to do wfh for a limited period and quite different to make it permanent. Many dwellings are barely comfortable for people to live in pre-pandemic, having one or more people trying to work full-time in that space can easily drive people crazy. I suspect more and more people will relocate out from the city to get more space. As with everything, that will probably overshoot and companies will try to pull some people back into offices, but how does that work if you sold your condo and moved to the Bruce Peninsula?

If wfh returns to being the exception, what will the financial situation look like if you sell your house in the boonies and try to get housing close to TO again?

Some companies have already started changing comp based on where you live (which I understand but do not agree with, I think you should pay based on the job you do, not where you are while doing it). How open and available are these adjustments? If you relocate from Etobicoke to Brantford and then your employer whacks your salary by 20% you are going to lose your mind. If you had stayed in the more expensive neighbourhood, your net worth climbs way faster doing the same job.

Part 2, and I don't know how this will play out, is that one of the advantages of living in TO was the tax free capital gain on a house.

If you accepted a transfer to a smaller centre you might not have been able to afford a move back to TO. That may have changed.

An assistant manager could become a full manager but paid the dues by transferring to Piddle Creek. You got a nice house for a good price but it wouldn't go up in value like your Toronto digs. The rate of property increase could be more than one could save should the transfer not work out.

Then there are the social contacts. Porsche owner vs John Deere owner clubs. Schools are different.

Right now WFH is shaking things up but will there be long term complications and a herd return to Toronto the Good?

Principle residence laws changed in 2016 so you can't vacate a property and still call it home. Life isn't simple any more.

 

[d4rktrooper788]

Are you serious??? If yes, this is the problem. It's not all about you. It's about you getting getting it and passing it on to someone else. If six people want to play Russian roulette that's OK by me. If six people stand around and draw straws to pick a stranger to kill it's a different story.

Yeah I am being serious, there is nothing wrong with a couple people having some beers around a bonfire and then responsibly enjoying some distanced outdoor activities. The risk level is quite low. If it were as bad as you would suggest, then half the province would already be dead, given the level of outdoor activity we saw this summer.

 

[GreyGhost]

Yeah I am being serious, there is nothing wrong with a couple people having some beers around a bonfire and then responsibly enjoying some distanced outdoor activities. The risk level is quite low. If it were as bad as you would suggest, then half the province would already be dead, given the level of outdoor activity we saw this summer.

Well we should be thankful that it hasn't mutated yet to something that is more easily transmissible. Oh wait . . .
"this new variant is more than 70 per cent more transmissible."

What we know about the U.K.'s new novel coronavirus variant

A new novel coronavirus variant has been detected in the U.K. Here’s what we know so far and what experts have to say about it.

beta.ctvnews.ca

 

[SoulfulStrut]

A few of my buddies are being told not to even bother thinking of returning back to work before 2022/23 because the companies are loving the WFH savings.

as for us, we’ve been extended to March with possibly September. It saddens me what’s happening, but the big boys and girls are snapping up failing businesses, buildings, and office space at an alarming rate. Whoever has money is going to make out like a bandit if they play their cars right. Hell I’d snap up a few condos if I could find the capital.

Condo fees would be insane though.

 

[GreyGhost]

Condo fees would be insane though.

I doubt it will happen with typical condos but a resort near horseshoe just completed its death spiral. ~25% of the owners were not paying their maintenance fees and the number was rapidly increasing. Therefore, every year they were falling further behind on maintenance. They pulled the plug and are trying to sell the entire development to get the current owners out from under the thumb of maintenance fees.

 

[SoulfulStrut]

I doubt it will happen with typical condos but a resort near horseshoe just completed its death spiral. ~25% of the owners were not paying their maintenance fees and the number was rapidly increasing. Therefore, every year they were falling further behind on maintenance. They pulled the plug and are trying to sell the entire development to get the current owners out from under the thumb of maintenance fees.

Buy a piece of land.... ???

 

[PrivatePilot]

Starting to hear this morning that the lockdown being announced will be more like the circuit breaker March/April version.

Good. It may actually work, assuming people don’t use it as an excuse to go over to their friends houses and drink and socialize...between trips to the grocery, liquor, and dollarama to browse the aisles for morning in particular. .

 

[mimico_polak]

Good. It may actually work, assuming people don’t use it as an excuse to go over to their friends houses and drink and socialize...between trips to the grocery, liquor, and dollarama to browse the aisles for morning in particular. .

You know they will. I went to Walmart this morning to pick up some baby food, wipes and the like because I don’t want to deal with the hordes following the actual announcement. It’ll be a zoo.

I’m looking to see if I have any big house projects coming up and anything critical I need so I don’t have to join the masses.

 

[Trials]

We've been going to as few stores as possible and when we do we make it count.
One person goes in to shop, not the wife with grandma and the twins in a stroller like I seen waiting in the line to go into the store :| Hello! It's a Pandemic people, not your regular everyday shopping experience, have grandma push the twins around the parking lot while you go get the goods you need.

 

[GreyGhost]

We've been going to as few stores as possible and when we do we make it count.
One person goes in to shop, not the wife with grandma and the twins in a stroller like I seen waiting in the line to go into the store :| Hello! It's a Pandemic people, not your regular everyday shopping experience, have grandma push the twins around the parking lot while you go get the goods you need.

That seems like an easy line that could have been drawn long ago. Tons of people out shopping with their kids. If you have two adults shopping, wtf do you have the kids with you??? One can look after the kids, the other one can go shopping (also high probability of crappy/no mask use ime with these people). I get it if there is one adult, sometimes that is unavoidable. I think my kids have been in a store twice since march and they are stuck in a cart and not allowed to walk (obviously mask on).

 

[ToSlow]

What i don’t understand in a pandemic

why the big pharmaceutical companies aren’t forced to share the vaccine information

one needs -80 the other don’t and it’s stable

 

[Brian P]

What i don’t understand in a pandemic

why the big pharmaceutical companies aren’t forced to share the vaccine information

one needs -80 the other don’t and it’s stable

What more do you want to know? Overview: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccines - Canada.ca

The storage conditions may have just as much to do with "what was tested" as opposed to "what might work". Pfizer stored it and tested it at dry-ice temperature because they knew it would work, and they released it like that as opposed to spending more time and doing more testing to see if other conditions would work. Maybe it would, maybe it wouldn't. But in this situation it's better to get the vaccine out there than to spend more time. Different design teams make different choices ... they're similar but not identical. (A Ford is broadly similar to a Chevy ... 4 wheels, engine, steering wheel, etc. - but they're not identical in details. Same thing.)

 

[ToSlow]

I didn’t mean share with the public

i meant to share the formula with each other

 

[crankcall]

What i don’t understand in a pandemic

why the big pharmaceutical companies aren’t forced to share the vaccine information

one needs -80 the other don’t and it’s stable

Even in a pandemic , capitalism is king. Making Pharma share info would be linked very quickly to communism. There are billions of dollars to be made here by the "winner"

 

[ToSlow]

I could understand in normal times, but in a pandemic they are still only looking at profit

Go figure ah

 

[sburns]

I could understand in normal times, but in a pandemic they are still only looking at profit

Go figure ah

Maybe you are more of a socialist then you think you are....?
Capitalism probably works best in a Pandemic type situation, those who can compete, thrive.
It's ironic that an American company, primarily, came up with the vaccine, considering the lack on containment on their part.

 

[GreyGhost]

Maybe you are more of a socialist then you think you are....?
Capitalism probably works best in a Pandemic type situation, those who can compete, thrive.
It's ironic that an American company, primarily, came up with the vaccine, considering the lack on containment on their part.

That gives the conspiracy theorists a lot to work with. By letting the virus run away, Trumpie drives up the need and price of the vaccine as people realize it is serious. If containment had worked well, the vaccine wouldn't be very valuable.