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Coronavirus

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As much as a hate management by committee, with so many conflicting priorities here, having a group of smart people discuss their thoughts is probably better that exclusively following the docs orders.
Unfortunately all the smart people are here in the Romper Room.
 
On the topic of renting vs buying in the GTA, I did some quick calculations using excel, historical mortgage rates and average home costs

Avg GTA home in 2000: $245000
Avg GTA home in 2020: $910000

Put 20% down in 2000, mortgage payment is $1254 per month
Renew every 5 years, payment from 2015 to 2020 is $619.75 per month

Total payments $218903
$100K property taxes
$100K for maintenance
Total $418903

Renting a home from 2000-2020 with rent payment being $1250 in 2000, 3.5% a year increase, 2020 payment = $2487 payment
Total spent on rent $454042

So $35139 extra spent on rent over those 20 years.
$910K - $114472 remaining on mortgage = $795528 equity

Conclusion is you would be $830667 ahead by buying in 2000, rather than renting.

Renting might be better in some places at sometime throughout the past but most certainly not in the GTA over the past two decades.

  • Super hot market numbers are cherry picked IMO, do you think it will keep increasing like this today??? Are you going to base your decisions today on cherry picking the past, hope not?
  • We can also cherry pick stock market numbers for the investing....which you have not IMO.
  • Investing the down payment...
  • The rent numbers are too high to start.
  • 3.5% inflation is almost double reality.
  • The posted and discounted interest rates on the mortgages were much higher in the early phases than the latter. This throws way off how much was paid early on on interest. You need to fix that in the calculation, you can't just average them out either as that is not how the time value of money works (TVofM).
  • Land transfer taxes (and TVofM)
  • Closing costs (and TVofM)
  • Real estate fees....
  • last two of the above when selling...
  • Very unlikely that someone lives in the same home for 20 years.... What one can be afforded in 2000 will likely not suit their needs in 2020 so at least once there will be a rinse and repeat on transfer taxes, closing costs, real estate fees... TVofM on these... Sort of the unrealistic idea of just buying your dream home as your first home...
  • We can assume the renter will do the same (move) which is just an adjustment on rent paid and the delta...
  • Your property taxes looks OK if it is Toronto, 905 will be much higher IMO...
  • Maint costs are OK IMO if they exclude any and all upgrades and the majority of the work is done by the homeowner. Too low if things are being upgraded and/or contractors need to be hired for most tasks. Hard to determine TVofM on this as it will depend on old home vs new home (when the costs occur).

Proper TVofM is mostly what is underestimated/missed. Using averages for rent and housing prices misses a lot of market variables the calculation needs to be more focused on real numbers. When you do the above you will find the gap closes significantly, small shift from hot market numbers and they invert.

But owning also comes with some advantages in family stability etc. that cannot be easily monetized. Hope all this helps.


As mentioned before I do expect buying opportunities for people that can do their own repairs. Flippers will stand on the sidelines due to the market uncertainty and homes that need repairs and updating will get cheaper (or more accurate will not be driven up...). As the prices are not being driven up opportunity presents itself. I did exactly this in 2008... There are many reasons why sellers of these houses cannot just wait it out.
 
Did you not read what I just wrote?

7% is the long term average return of the stock market including several 50%+ drops. As for running the numbers with that stat, I don't need to do that. It's already been done, there was a video posted earlier:

Lol. ?
 
At the very least they need to manage it on a geographic basis. If Toronto is still a problem, keep Toronto restricted. But the rest of the province? Wear masks. Social distance. Wash your hands. Be careful. But remove some of the restrictions.

Fair.

You're right, we need to find the medium between okay let's crank the engine (economy) vs leaving it to sit. The people are not ready to handle the revving yet, like you've pointed out numerous other times, the 20% will ruin it for the rest of us.

My point was, we are only peaking now regardless of how we got here we need to keep people's heads on a swivel for the next few weeks.
 
Fair.

You're right, we need to find the medium between okay let's crank the engine (economy) vs leaving it to sit. The people are not ready to handle the revving yet, like you've pointed out numerous other times, the 20% will ruin it for the rest of us.

My point was, we are only peaking now regardless of how we got here we need to keep people's heads on a swivel for the next few weeks.
Back to the face marker idea. Get caught doing something dumb and your privileges are revoked until the marker wears off in a few weeks. No freedom for you.
 
Back to the face marker idea. Get caught doing something dumb and your privileges are revoked until the marker wears off in a few weeks. No freedom for you.
Or just double / triple the fines for stupidity. Start making money back on the backs of the idiots to the municipalities.
 
Back to the face marker idea. Get caught doing something dumb and your privileges are revoked until the marker wears off in a few weeks. No freedom for you.

You just know some psychopath is going to go on a rampage with a magic marker, tackling people and drawing on their faces.

"I'm taking you all down with me!!!!"
 
You just know some psychopath is going to go on a rampage with a magic marker, tackling people and drawing on their faces.

"I'm taking you all down with me!!!!"

Thats some Karen **** right there
 
and if a lot of businesses fail? Well that sucks, but buggy whip manufactures went away to

That's a very shortsighted view and is also apples and oranges. We're not talking about something "going away" because it become no longer needed. We're talking tens of millions of businesses that employ many millions of people in things that are very much still needed and are major sources of employment that keeps our society intact.

These places can't all just sit idle for 6 months and expect to survive.

Come on....

Back to the face marker idea. Get caught doing something dumb and your privileges are revoked until the marker wears off in a few weeks. No freedom for you.

Cue the Hitler memes from the crybabies. ;)

Or just double / triple the fines for stupidity. Start making money back on the backs of the idiots to the municipalities.

It was just announced today that fighting these tickets has been made easier, so I'm sure the lawyers are already rubbing their hands together getting ready to make all sorts of arguments against them, some of which may even stick. So in the end, slimy lawyers will ensure that the stupid people can continue to be stupid at the expense of society as a whole.

And the second problem is enforcement. Unless they're going to put millions of enforcement officers on the streets across the country (and again, cue the Hitler memes from the crybabies) fines are great and all but don't entirely solve the problem. Look at road enforcement, for example - 50kph over the limit has all sorts of very serious implications now...but you rarely need to go about 5KM on any 400 series highway to see people driving 150+ anyways.
 
Karen **** has been happening non-stop, left, right and centre.

People spitting and coughing on grocery store clerks and bus drivers, coughing on paper currency before handing it to cashiers.
These idiots / f$@ktards should be made prime examples of. Arrest the Karens and let them stew. Front line staff put up with enough **** during the good times...now there's 100x more idiocy happening and people acting like asshats.
 
If I had been doing some minor physio during the three months I wouldnt have been so royally screwed up when proper hard core physio started. The conservative approach actually created a much longer path to being back to normal.

Frozen Shoulder.
 
I'm in a bit of a different catgory since my business is just fine in this pandemic so far, and we are expecting a boom coming out the other side.
My wife on the other hand is a front line worker right now, in a large GTA hospital. She's gowned/masked/face shield and booties all day. And we are both THRILLED the hospitals are under whelmed and over equiped for the rush we aren't getting. Its awesome to have nurses and aids actually getting dinner breaks for a change, because pre pandemic , 50% of the time 12hr shifts went with coffee for lunch and no dinner. The Pandemic has been great for ER doctors because morons that treat ER as a walk in clinic are scared away, the doctors and nurses have a chance to treat actual sick people,

Keep the programs we have in place to keep stupid people at home. Some easing sure, and if a lot of businesses fail? Well that sucks, but buggy whip manufactures went away to.

We are well under the curve since medical professionals preached "close it down" , not enjoy your march break and we'll sort this out. Open too soon and we will be F'd.

Japan today is a lesson for what can go wrong. They are starting to surge in cases.
 
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