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Coronavirus

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It's kinda sad but I have near absolute faith that society will legit go right back to polluting the ever living **** out of Earth all in the name of "muh profits."

I also suspect that in-person business meetings and conferences are going to be drastically cut back. Do you really need to be at a meeting in person that could be done with a webex? Do you really need to be in a classroom at a conference?
 
China's numbers are fictional but also keep in mind their lock-down was pretty draconian (because they can...) so the numbers may not be as high as everyone might assume, sadly we will never know the truth...
 
China's numbers are fictional but also keep in mind their lock-down was pretty draconian (because they can...) so the numbers may not be as high as everyone might assume, sadly we will never know the truth...
And they had temporary hospitals built very quickly. The Yanks were and still are arguing about their precious economy.
 
Given some of the stupidity coming from the south right now...it's going to get a LOT worse before it gets better. There's still probably 20-30% of their population treating this like a big conspiracy or whatever right now. People protesting that their "constitutional rights" are being trampled. Churches suing to stay open. Fack, Florida just deemed the WWE "essential".

Don't even get me started on their dear leader right now.

I was talking to a buddy about a potential whirlwind trip to the Back of the Dragon in late summer or early fall if the border reopened, but I'm really questioning if that's even wise at that point.

We haven't officially cancelled our September Deals Gap trip yet, but I have my doubts. I've still got a vacation to Spain/Portugal in the plans (September - rescheduled from late March) although I doubt that I will be going to WorldSBK in person at Portimao as planned. I'm beginning to suspect that in-person attendance at large sporting events of all types is finished until there is a vaccine. And that's if this season doesn't get cancelled entirely.

If international travel without a 2-week quarantine opens up by then, I'll still go.
 
Draconian works...viruses can’t replicate if they don’t have new hosts. I mentioned this before and it was dismissed but viruses burn out all the time. Some faster and some slower than others. Unfortunately it takes community effort to do this....and you can see what happens south of us. it only takes a few people to screw it up fir the others.
 
If it wasn't apparent that China's numbers were fictional before, it sure ought to be apparent now.

I think, in general, one should just assume China's government is always lying even if there isn't proof. Did you guys know China banned Winnie the Pooh because of the internet memes making fun of Xi Jinping? China works very hard to ensure they always look good to its citizens!

I also suspect that in-person business meetings and conferences are going to be drastically cut back. Do you really need to be at a meeting in person that could be done with a webex? Do you really need to be in a classroom at a conference?

Honestly it depends on the company I think. Some employers really don't trust their employees for whatever reason and some employers have psychological issues that implore them to power-trip constantly. Can't power-trip if you're not in person!
 
I have been doing some research on the impact of humidity on viruses, it seems somewhat counter-intuitive (at least to me) but apparently most viruses have a much shorter lifespan outside the host in higher humidity environments, including on surfaces. Testing on the current one also demonstrates this relationship. BTW the recommendation is 40% to 60% inside as too high can cause other problems...

Maybe we will be thankful for humid Ontario in the coming months...
 
I have been doing some research on the impact of humidity on viruses, it seems somewhat counter-intuitive (at least to me) but apparently most viruses have a much shorter lifespan outside the host in higher humidity environments, including on surfaces. Testing on the current one also demonstrates this relationship. BTW the recommendation is 40% to 60% inside as too high can cause other problems...

Maybe we will be thankful for humid Ontario in the coming months...

This actually makes sense because virus use proteins for major...something something (don't rmb). Proteins have very specific conditions before denaturing (tempreature, humanity, pH level, and others, also I can't rmb lol)
 
We haven't officially cancelled our September Deals Gap trip yet, but I have my doubts. I've still got a vacation to Spain/Portugal in the plans (September - rescheduled from late March) although I doubt that I will be going to WorldSBK in person at Portimao as planned. I'm beginning to suspect that in-person attendance at large sporting events of all types is finished until there is a vaccine. And that's if this season doesn't get cancelled entirely.

If international travel without a 2-week quarantine opens up by then, I'll still go.
We have a trip planned for this summer to Europe. No word yet from the airlines outside of switching our flights to Belgian Airlines from LOT Polish airlines...not sure how to approach this, or whether we will be entitled for a refund or not if they don't honour the tickets. I'd prefer my cash back instead of a coupon/credit for future travel.
 
China's numbers are fictional but also keep in mind their lock-down was pretty draconian (because they can...) so the numbers may not be as high as everyone might assume, sadly we will never know the truth...
I'm sure it's all just a big misunderstanding in translation from the abacus to computer interface and China numbers are actually in hundreds.
 
California was pretty early imposing restrictions. Looking at the numbers, California is about where Canada is (and the population is not far off, either). Presumably (and hopefully), this is to be a gradual, staged re-opening, not just flipping the switch tomorrow.
I hope they do this carefully. I think it was in Northern Italy earlier this week that they changed the quarantine to 28 days because they were retesting asymptomatic positive people and they were still shedding virus over 20 days later.

Do we know if you get it that youhave immunity?

If these states (or us) open without robust testing and contact tracing then New York levels will become the norm instead of the aberration.

Sigh...

My bus is packed today. Not just the homeless. I have lots I have not seen for weeks. They were "bored". Because it has been fairly quiet here people are starting to think this is overblown. I hear a lot of "hoax" in the conversations of my bus.

I am getting concerned that the level of complacency is on the rise.

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No sense worrying too much about the States at this point, according to something I read last night,
we passed the worse case scenario for today, two days ago.
 
We haven't officially cancelled our September Deals Gap trip yet, but I have my doubts. I've still got a vacation to Spain/Portugal in the plans (September - rescheduled from late March) although I doubt that I will be going to WorldSBK in person at Portimao as planned. I'm beginning to suspect that in-person attendance at large sporting events of all types is finished until there is a vaccine. And that's if this season doesn't get cancelled entirely.

If international travel without a 2-week quarantine opens up by then, I'll still go.

I'm still holding out hope for a James Bay Road trip that was planned for this summer but the interprovincial thing (as well as the remote location thing) potentially complicates that. Who knows if people will even WANT visitors from afar in extremely remote towns this summer.

We were thinking about doing Pickle Lake instead if the interprovincial thing is problematic.

Whatever route we go I'd be planning to camp as much as possible and do takeout versus dine-in in order to maintain the social distancing thing to the extreme. It will certainly be a summer of careful precautions if you do travel.

Once the airlines open up again we are thinking about a Vegas getaway. There should be some deals to be had. Fly out, rent a couple motorcycles, ride. Do some cool stuff.

Dreams. Realistic or not, who knows. The road ahead, particularly with any US travel, is very murky.

On the positive side there are some glimmers of hope right now if you're looking past all the typical gloom and doom headlines.
 
No sense worrying too much about the States at this point, according to something I read last night,
we passed the worse case scenario for today, two days ago.

We have been running above the forecast case modeling # for cumulative cases in Ontario since April 1 (of the model that I have seen)

As of April 14
Forecast to be 8400
Ontario reported over 8780 on the 14th

For what models and their given assumptions actually mean....
 
We have been running above the forecast case modeling # for cumulative cases in Ontario since April 1 (of the model that I have seen)

As of April 14
Forecast to be 8400
Ontario reported over 8780 on the 14th

For what models and their given assumptions actually mean....
Models should be based on actual cases, not just diagnosed cases right? In that case, we arent even in the ballpark of the lower numbers.
 
Models should be based on actual cases, not just diagnosed cases right? In that case, we arent even in the ballpark of the lower numbers.

Whether the model incorporates the moving average of actual or not I have no idea
 
It's the people from the small remote communities that are NOT impacted by SARS-COV-2 that are protesting the draconian lockdown over the whole state.

Canadian nurses work in the Detroit hospitals doing cancer work and other specialties. Maybe some of those rubes have kin in Detroit hospitals. If it gets bad enough and Canadian nurse stay home they will have non COVID funerals. More American Graves Again
 
The important part is that they were expecting hospital utilization (especially ICU beds) to be *drastically* higher than the actual figures are right now.

Positive cases or not, our hospitals are still reasonably quiet, which is good.

Reading back through the news on the topic...

April 3;
"we need 900 more beds to cope with the oncoming onslought).

April 11, National Post:
They have been bracing for the worst, a deluge of desperately sick COVID-19 patients who overwhelm resources and lead to chilling decisions over who gets life-saving care.
...
But, perhaps surprisingly, some critical-care physicians in the hardest-hit provinces say they have yet to face that feared surge of coronavirus sufferers.

In Ontario, almost 78 per cent of the province’s expanded ventilator capacity remained free. The patient volume was well under the “best case” scenario depicted in Ontario-government epidemic modelling released earlier this month.

Read that red bit.

The modelling data suggested we'd have around 1200 people in ICU's on Vents right now under BEST CASE figures. Today we have 254 in ICU and only 188 are on ventilators. More than 1000 less than forecasted as "best case" just a few weeks ago.

We are doing well. Focus on ALL the stats, not just the infected numbers.
 
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