blackberry stock advice

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SunnY S said:
If I had to take a guess.... lots of good news to report recently :

-today, Thorsten Heins, RIM CEO, hasn't even been on the job a full year yet, was named Executive of the Year by Kantech.
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Herd mentality = buy on rumour, sell on news. They're bucking the trend atm.
What about Nokia? Percentage wise (on the stock mrkt), they're slaughtering RIM.

Disclaimer: I have no dog in this fight.

p.s. What do you think RIM's s/p future will look like if they (unexpectedly) push back the BB10 release date?
 
Gary said:
What about Nokia? Percentage wise (on the stock mrkt), they're slaughtering RIM.

p.s. What do you think RIM's s/p future will look like if they (unexpectedly) push back the BB10 release date?
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Surprisingly, Nokia had a very good quarter. A lot of question marks remain about their future. They aren't sure if they should stick to Windows, or build an Android device? Stick to one? Do both? IMHO, they are where RIM was a few years ago, still trying to figure out which way to steer the ship.

RIM is launching in 6 major cities worldwide on Jan 30. They promise more exciting developments on launch day. Devices will be available in February. They are done with the "delays".

They still have a long fight ahead of them, but the the early signs are truly encouraging.

All their ducks are lined up in a row, they have 79 million+ subscribers, ALL IN, baybee!



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From my experience, Wall Street Journal has been pretty accurate overall on its tech articles and calls, esp when it comes to Apple.

[h=1]Option Traders ‘Call’ on RIM to Keep Rallying
Option traders are betting weak iPhone demand will be a boon for Research in Motion Ltd., as the BlackBerry maker prepares to launch its newest smartphone later this month.[/h]Trading in bullish Research in Motion options surged to more than twice the daily average by midafternoon Monday amid reports Apple Inc. has reduced iPhone 5 component orders because of weaker-than-forecast demand. With less than three weeks remaining before the launch of the much-anticipated BlackBerry 10, options traders are betting RIM shares can jump to a 13-month high in the coming months.
“There is a lot of speculation that RIM can continue higher, with even more anticipation for the BlackBerry 10 release with the Apple news [Monday],” said Joe Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Investors are betting that, with momentum from Apple slowing, the momentum in RIM shares will pick up.”

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2013/01/14/option-traders-call-on-rim-to-continue-higher/

 
Rimm has been building technical strength since mid summer. Having never invested in rimm before I made 1000 percent on call options a few months back before the trend reversal. Then comes the news stories trying to justify the sudden price move and they couldn't come up with anything coherent. I wouldn't be shocked to see rimm stock double or triple in price from here over the next year or two, its still got a fair amount of technical strength.

As for apple stock, lookout below!
 
Wow, RIM stock is on fire. Its totally gone parabolic. The question is how much more can it go before some sort of correction.
 
toshison said:
Wow, RIM stock is on fire. Its totally gone parabolic. The question is how much more can it go before some sort of correction.
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The move up / on fire? That's what happens with massive short covering (many short sellers waited too long to cover) combined with a couple analyst upgrades (another one today), and RUMOUR(s). They WILL sell on news, once RIM's new phone is in the hands of those that can't get out of bed in the morning without their 'latest & greatest' cell phone.

“RIM will enable corporate email on iPhones and Android devices. This change we believe is unknown or not well understood but is important,” said Jefferies analyst Peter Misek in a note, adding: “We see May and Aug quarter results well above street due to $600 BlackBerry10 average selling price and guaranteed volumes from carriers"

Misek also raised his price target on U.S.-listed shares of the BlackBerry maker to $19.50 from $13.

Since this 'Misek' dude probably bought barrells full of stock sub $10, what else is he (and other analysts who bought) going to say?
(They produce the 'run up' & sell into it............don't be fooled).

$600 for a phone? Are people smoking LSD these days?
Seriously - THINK ABOUT IT.
 
nfq said:
"a fool and his money are soon parted"

anyway, lots of discount brokerages out there: Questtrade, Qtrade, go nuts.
While you're at it, why limit yourself to only $2K worth of share? You know more than the big boys. Time the market. Take out a loan. Get $20K of that bad boy.

can I also recommend this:
how-really-ruin-your-financial-life-portfolio-ben-stein-hardcover-cover-art.jpg
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Funny you say that, one of my friends was big into trading when we were finishing college. He maxed out his credit line, borrowed money from others and even got others to join him in his trading adventures. 7 years later he's still paying off what he lost lol, im talking around 100,000K
 
100 million bucks! wholy ****!
 
Gary said:
The move up / on fire? That's what happens with massive short covering (many short sellers waited too long to cover) combined with a couple analyst upgrades (another one today), and RUMOUR(s). They WILL sell on news, once RIM's new phone is in the hands of those that can't get out of bed in the morning without their 'latest & greatest' cell phone.

“RIM will enable corporate email on iPhones and Android devices. This change we believe is unknown or not well understood but is important,” said Jefferies analyst Peter Misek in a note, adding: “We see May and Aug quarter results well above street due to $600 BlackBerry10 average selling price and guaranteed volumes from carriers"

Misek also raised his price target on U.S.-listed shares of the BlackBerry maker to $19.50 from $13.

Since this 'Misek' dude probably bought barrells full of stock sub $10, what else is he (and other analysts who bought) going to say?
(They produce the 'run up' & sell into it............don't be fooled).

$600 for a phone? Are people smoking LSD these days?
Seriously - THINK ABOUT IT.
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There are still an awful lot of outstanding short positions on RIM so its hard to really gauge how much of the pop is coming from a squeeze and how much might be institutional buyers coming back in. Yeah, it looks like a classic case of buy on rumour, sell on news but RIM was somewhat irrationally thrown in the dumpster (perhaps prematurely) earlier this year with people including Mr Misek himself just tearing RIM apart and adding to the negative sentiment. Misek has been the most negatively vocal critic of RIM all of last year and his words would usually illicit a negative reaction on the stock, whether it be a short attack or genuine selling who knows -probably both. So, the fact he's turned the corner and has hopped on the hype train should propel this stock further before it hits a wall.

We will see where it goes only time is going to tell. I dont really think its going to double or triple from here but I can see the stock over $20 is everything continues to go well.
 
Paul1000RR said:
Funny you say that, one of my friends was big into trading when we were finishing college. He maxed out his credit line, borrowed money from others and even got others to join him in his trading adventures. 7 years later he's still paying off what he lost lol, im talking around 100,000K
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He was probably trading on margin and got annihilated. To be honest, I have had mixed experiences with the markets. Ive had amazing success and also some ugly failures. Its the nature of the beast. Its an ugly world and stocks can get completely hammered in no time at all. Here's a recent example, just look up the 3 month chart on Posiedon Concepts (TSE:PSN on google) and see how fast things went bad. Got to be really careful cuz in the market we are little fish swimming with sharks.
 
toshison said:
There are still an awful lot of outstanding short positions on RIM so its hard to really gauge how much of the pop is coming from a squeeze and how much might be institutional buyers coming back in. Yeah, it looks like a classic case of buy on rumour, sell on news but RIM was somewhat irrationally thrown in the dumpster (perhaps prematurely) earlier this year with people including Mr Misek himself just tearing RIM apart and adding to the negative sentiment. Misek has been the most negatively vocal critic of RIM all of last year and his words would usually illicit a negative reaction on the stock, whether it be a short attack or genuine selling who knows -probably both. So, the fact he's turned the corner and has hopped on the hype train should propel this stock further before it hits a wall.

We will see where it goes only time is going to tell. I dont really think its going to double or triple from here but I can see the stock over $20 is everything continues to go well.
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You've got Misek pegged. My thoughts are: he's been buying on the downside (like 99% of analysts) and will come out of this smelling like a rose. IMO only. As I mentioned before - I have no dog in this fight. I played RIM in the '90's, prior to the bubble burst. Nortel too. I loved the action back then. Many good OTC's back then. One of them, dramatically helped me with my "Freedom 40". (great story).
RIM, from what I can tell, is a one trick pony. They sell a phone. Fundamentally, I can't buy into that regardless if that phone wipes my *** & gives me head. No dividend - likely never will be. If they invent / re-design something 'new', I'd listen much closer.
I'm happy for those that bought at lower prices. I hope it keeps going up for those that did.
 
toshison said:
There are still an awful lot of outstanding short positions on RIM so its hard to really gauge how much of the pop is coming from a squeeze and how much might be institutional buyers coming back in.
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Short interest has been growing steady by the month since Sep.
With the recent increase in s/p, many of them are getting called. Others panicing / running for the exit - hence the 'squeeze'.

Short interest as of eoy 2012:

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/rimm/short-interest
 
Gary said:
Short interest has been growing steady by the month since Sep.
With the recent increase in s/p, many of them are getting called. Others panicing / running for the exit - hence the 'squeeze'.

Short interest as of eoy 2012:

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/rimm/short-interest
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Its going to be interesting to see where those numbers are at the end of this month.

You are probably right about Misek. I find with most analysts is that they are usually wrong as much or more than they are right and they are very much self-serving. Misek is probably making a lot of money on RIM right now.

Gary - I'd love to hear your Freedom 40 story. Im in my early 30's and freedom is my main goal. Its more important to me than getting sucked into a vortex of high debt and material goods.
 
Currently at $15.69, up more than a buck today. This smells very much like a short squeeze. I don't own any of it (and I'm not short it, either).

Options are very richly priced. Hmmm, that gives me an idea ...
 
toshison said:
Its going to be interesting to see where those numbers are at the end of this month.

You are probably right about Misek. I find with most analysts is that they are usually wrong as much or more than they are right and they are very much self-serving. Misek is probably making a lot of money on RIM right now.

Gary - I'd love to hear your Freedom 40 story. Im in my early 30's and freedom is my main goal. Its more important to me than getting sucked into a vortex of high debt and material goods.
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Same boat here. I'd very much like to hear this story too. PM if you don't wanna share with everyone.
 
Misek is one big reason why the stock jumped today.

Of all the RIM-is-dead analysts to beat their chests, it was this guy. Now he's changed his tune.

Also, the buzz is building, positive reviews are still rolling in. True to RIMs words "carriers are excited over this product". Now Walmart announced they will be pushing BB10, and even the little fish companies like WirelessWave and Tbooth have announced BB10 programs.

The Carriers are terrified of Google/Android, because they feel its only a matter of time before Google sets up its own Carrier and leaves these guy out in the cold. Then that leaves the carriers with Apple, and we all know the carriers are at the mercy of Apple and barely make any money from them. What good is that?

WindowsPhone has been out for 2 years, and hasn't really caught on.

As a result, watch for a huge push by all the carriers over 150+ worldwide of them to push a BB10 device on you next time you go phone shopping.

The carriers really want a solid #3 player to rise. The BB10 looks good from all the reviews. Is coming from an established company. 70,000+ apps at launch (windows only had 5000). And they have 79million existing customers.

The future is looking good for RIM. If they can execute a good launch, and keep the momentum going, they have a chance.


edit : Google wants to compete with Verizon and AT and T. http://bgr.com/2012/11/15/google-dish-negotiations-wireless-carrier/
 
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