Notice how the rich are getting richer? When energy giant Encana this week punted 20% of its employees, workers gasped and investors cheered. The stock went up. People who owned it made money – which was exactly the point. The guys who run Encana were, as they say on Bay Street, ‘adding shareholder value.’
Moral: working is harder than investing.
In the next few days expect a lot of numbers showing the US economy is growing measurably (but not seriously) weaker. Job creation’s expected to fall. The impact of the 16-day government shutdown on consumer spending and mortgage applications has already been negative. It’s even likely to be a lousy Christmas.
But at the same time over 70% of the biggest US companies now reporting third-quarter profits have exceeded analysts’ expectations. Profits, in fact, are expected to surge 4% in the final three months of the year, which is more than impressive.
Why? Easy. A struggling economy brings sustained low interest rates and cheap corporate loans. Besides, companies are getting more ‘productive’, which means they’re busy replacing expensive employees with network architecture. More money falls to the bottom line. Bigger profits. Higher stock.
In fact, the result of this growing chasm between the economy and investors is dramatic. So far this year the Dow is up 22.7% while the S&P 500 has gained 26.4%. Even the laggard TSX in Toronto has now swollen by 10.45% since January, despite a recent dive in the price of oil and a 30% dump in the value of gold.
Of course, not everyone likes to load up on stocks and hope for the best, which is why a balanced and diversified portfolio makes sense. For example, if you had 60% exposure to growth assets (Canadian, US and international stocks, as well as REITs, all owned through diversified ETFs) and 40% safe stuff (various bonds and preferreds) you’re ahead about 9% this year. That portfolio of course has far less volatility to it, and is performing well despite a mid-summer slump for assets that were hit by rising interest rates (like those REITs).
The point is this: After Rogers Communications announced layoffs this week (who needs journalists when you have blogs?), the stock went up. Duh.