The NDP are broke, even if they are polling slightly ahead of the Libs currently. They have few candidates picked out and their platform is now in shambles. They want time to build the war chest and create space from keeping the Libs in power since the last election. I don't see NDP voting no confidence unless the Bloc supports the government first.I expect the liberal playbook over the coming months... I am not sure Poilievre gets all of it.
Attempt to stay in power until the inevitable dumpster fire just south of us.
Blame the CPC and Poilievre for this bill not getting passed (filibuster), look they took money out of your hands at Christmas.
Toss a bone here and there to the NDP and Block to get to at least mid 2025.
Likely prorogue parliament at some point to get more time, CPC has also done this in the past...more than once.
Then, use the pain south of the border (even if one thinks the new administration there is all awesome sauce, they will cause big pain and bad optics if they do just some of what they say). Use the US to say look, Poilievre is Trump lite, Poilievre therefore bad in the election.
Good chance inflation and interest rates will look better.
Axe the Tax will lose steam as time goes on for many.
Pickoff a few CPC platform talking points like they did recently with immigration reduction, many areas where they were asleep at the wheel.
Mysteriously "leak" any non-liberal MPs named in the foreign interference report (if there are any).
Then add to this trying to time reproductive rights legislation and make it an election issue--the ace.
Sure the Sustainable Development Technology Canada fiasco is important but it is one of those political items that plays well to some but is a shoulder shrug to others. Shocking political corruptions, shocking... pigs at the trough, shocking... They all do it.
My worry is Poilievre and the CPC are actually playing into his hands. He needs to actually work with the NDP and Block to get a successful non-confidence vote sooner (now) rather than later (and already should have) as time in this case may benefit JT. He needs to get the security clearance to look at that list (my fear here is he is not applying as he thinks it might be denied?? otherwise why not??). An election today is a strong CPC majority, one mid to late next year is an unkown, why risk it, get it done, take the all but for sure win?
The Bloc will probably align with the Cons moving forward. They painted themselves into a corner and unless they want to tap dance like the NDP they will be voting no confidence on everything going forward. By voting non confidence they are also putting pressure on the NDP to explain (again) how they can support a government they are trying to distance themselves from.