Elephant in the Covid room | Page 90 | GTAMotorcycle.com

Elephant in the Covid room

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Brian P said:
USA 44.22% (+0.11%), Canada 34.79% (+0.57%). We are 9.43% behind, caught up by 0.46% yesterday. Catch-up date at current trends, 25th May.
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What’s the half life of the first dose? Scientists want the 2nd in you within 4 months. The trailing allocation will track the 1st dose by 4 mos - that will start ramping now, so 13m 2nd doses will be directed at those with 1 dose between now and august.

With about 20 million doses forecast (remembering we have yet to hit 60% of forecast any month so far), I can’t figure out how to catch the USA.

My biggest fear is the forecasted deliveries falling short. Will they allow single doses patients to drift back into risk? Or defer the unvaccinated?
 
Mad Mike said:
What’s the half life of the first dose? Scientists want the 2nd in you within 4 months. The trailing allocation will track the 1st dose by 4 mos - that will start ramping now, so 13m 2nd doses will be directed at those with 1 dose between now and august.

With about 20 million doses forecast (remembering we have yet to hit 60% of forecast any month so far), I can’t figure out how to catch the USA.

My biggest fear is the forecasted deliveries falling short. Will they allow single doses patients to drift back into risk? Or defer the unvaccinated?
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Length of protection is unknown. Preliminary numbers are six months plus (remember they were looking at asymptomatic as the bar for success). As a society, better to get everyone one before delivering second even if the first one wears off in some people.
 
GreyGhost said:
Length of protection is unknown. Preliminary numbers are six months plus (remember they were looking at asymptomatic as the bar for success). As a society, better to get everyone one before delivering second even if the first one wears off in some people.
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Pushing off the second dose will require a lot of political savvy. Cant wait for the double talk finger pointing if that actually happens.
 
Mad Mike said:
What’s the half life of the first dose? Scientists want the 2nd in you within 4 months. The trailing allocation will track the 1st dose by 4 mos - that will start ramping now, so 13m 2nd doses will be directed at those with 1 dose between now and august.
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We didn't switch to a delayed-second-dose strategy until mid to late February, and we didn't start vaccination in large numbers until March. Most of the relatively small number of people who got their first dose before the end of February have already had their second, and the big number of second doses isn't due to start hitting until July. We need to get as many first doses into arms as possible in May and June.

Pfizer is due to ship a little over 2 million doses per week to Canada starting this week through May, then 2.4 million per week through June. Now that the US has more supply than demand, those are now coming from their plant in Michigan, so no longer subject to EU export headaches (and I'm sure the EU is happy to not have to export those; they could use those doses themselves).

2 million doses per week = 800,000 per week to Ontario = 114,000 per day. We can do that. (Did more than that today.) And that's just Pfizer. Haven't counted any Moderna or anything else. In June that goes up to 137,000 per day in Ontario just Pfizer.

800,000 per week x 4 weeks + 960,000 per week x 4 weeks = 7 million shots, mostly first doses, we've already got 5.4 million covered, that's 12.4 million people, about 85% of the whole province ... just Pfizer ... Moderna shipments have been inconsistent (they short-shipped last week but then what we got this week was meant to be next week) but definitely non-zero, and this is assuming no more AZ and J&J continues having issues.

We should be circling back to starting to deliver more second doses (slightly before the 4-month plan) sometime in June.

CTV News was saying that the city of Toronto was going to be opening up appointments in the second week of June starting tomorrow. I know this is somewhat hard to relate to actual number of vaccines planned to be delivered, because of people booking multiple appointments and then cancelling ... or not showing up, and messing up the works.

Bottom line ... we are not okay yet, but we soon will be.
 
ToSlow said:
That is not how i would measure the success of the covid vaccine numbers, i look at how many have the shot to the overall population. And by those numbers they are millions ahead of Canada.

If we had thie number of shots given by that, we would be fully vaccinated as a country. easy to put up percentages. they more people in LA than all of Canada combined
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Those percentage numbers in my post ARE "how many have the shot [divided by] the overall population" - the number of people who have at least one dose, divided by the population, expressed as a percentage. That is exactly what you are "looking at".

The numbers in the USA are bigger simply because the population is bigger. You understand how percentages work, right??
 
Brian P said:
Those percentage numbers in my post ARE "how many have the shot [divided by] the overall population" - the number of people who have at least one dose, divided by the population, expressed as a percentage. That is exactly what you are "looking at".

The numbers in the USA are bigger simply because the population is bigger. You understand how percentages work, right??
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So second jab at me right?? insulting me don't make the numbers change to make your number be a reality
 
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Brian P said:
Those percentage numbers in my post ARE "how many have the shot [divided by] the overall population" - the number of people who have at least one dose, divided by the population, expressed as a percentage. That is exactly what you are "looking at".

The numbers in the USA are bigger simply because the population is bigger. You understand how percentages work, right??
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Of course i know percentages, i just don't look at the world through rose colored glasses. you can spew all the numbers ******** you want, we aren't going to catch the US in vaccines given, And that's what i'm looking at.

Anyway i hope your predictions are right. I would like to enjoy some of the summer traveling.
 
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Brian P said:
We didn't switch to a delayed-second-dose strategy until mid to late February, and we didn't start vaccination in large numbers until March. Most of the relatively small number of people who got their first dose before the end of February have already had their second, and the big number of second doses isn't due to start hitting until July. We need to get as many first doses into arms as possible in May and June.

Pfizer is due to ship a little over 2 million doses per week to Canada starting this week through May, then 2.4 million per week through June. Now that the US has more supply than demand, those are now coming from their plant in Michigan, so no longer subject to EU export headaches (and I'm sure the EU is happy to not have to export those; they could use those doses themselves).

2 million doses per week = 800,000 per week to Ontario = 114,000 per day. We can do that. (Did more than that today.) And that's just Pfizer. Haven't counted any Moderna or anything else. In June that goes up to 137,000 per day in Ontario just Pfizer.

800,000 per week x 4 weeks + 960,000 per week x 4 weeks = 7 million shots, mostly first doses, we've already got 5.4 million covered, that's 12.4 million people, about 85% of the whole province ... just Pfizer ... Moderna shipments have been inconsistent (they short-shipped last week but then what we got this week was meant to be next week) but definitely non-zero, and this is assuming no more AZ and J&J continues having issues.

We should be circling back to starting to deliver more second doses (slightly before the 4-month plan) sometime in June.

CTV News was saying that the city of Toronto was going to be opening up appointments in the second week of June starting tomorrow. I know this is somewhat hard to relate to actual number of vaccines planned to be delivered, because of people booking multiple appointments and then cancelling ... or not showing up, and messing up the works.

Bottom line ... we are not okay yet, but we soon will be.
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I hope you are correct. You have a perfect scenario laid out, however I don’t think you fully accounted for the second doses that will be peeled out of the supply. My next is July 27, I was around the 9millionth Canadian when I got my first, 7.7m before me with only one dose as of today, they are already scheduled to get their second dose before the end of July.

Then we pray the delivery performance improves. JTs regime has not yet reached 60% of their forecast in any given month, to meet their current forecast they need to do a lot of heavy lifting.

Again, I remain hopeful, but not yet optimistic.
 
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Brian P said:
Those percentage numbers in my post ARE "how many have the shot [divided by] the overall population" - the number of people who have at least one dose, divided by the population, expressed as a percentage. That is exactly what you are "looking at".

The numbers in the USA are bigger simply because the population is bigger. You understand how percentages work, right??
Click to expand...
Not exactly how to factor all of this considering effacy rate differential will favour the USA while they have a 2 shot advantage. Deferring second shots might be the best option to get near term coverage, but it could also keep the kettle boiling for a lot longer.
 
Mad Mike said:
Not exactly how to factor all of this considering effacy rate differential will favour the USA while they have a 2 shot advantage. Deferring second shots might be the best option to get near term coverage, but it could also keep the kettle boiling for a lot longer.
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Yes, the efficacy difference between one shot and two is a factor that favours the USA, but in view of constrained supply ... we are better off with the delayed-second-shot strategy giving one dose to many people than we would be with half as many people with both doses. If we were rigidly holding to the original timing between doses, hardly anyone under 65 would have had ANY vaccinations yet. We don't have that luxury.

Mark my words ... vaccine hesitancy in the USA due to past and current political factors is going to haunt them.

You can blame current and previous governments for Canada not having any in-house manufacturing capability for these vaccines all you want. I won't disagree. Just make sure you don't complain in the future about how your tax money is being spent to support pharmaceutical and vaccine and PPE manufacturing capability that we (hopefully by that time) don't seem to need at that future date ...
 
Brian P said:
Yes, the efficacy difference between one shot and two is a factor that favours the USA, but in view of constrained supply ... we are better off with the delayed-second-shot strategy giving one dose to many people than we would be with half as many people with both doses. If we were rigidly holding to the original timing between doses, hardly anyone under 65 would have had ANY vaccinations yet. We don't have that luxury.

Mark my words ... vaccine hesitancy in the USA due to past and current political factors is going to haunt them.

You can blame current and previous governments for Canada not having any in-house manufacturing capability for these vaccines all you want. I won't disagree. Just make sure you don't complain in the future about how your tax money is being spent to support pharmaceutical and vaccine and PPE manufacturing capability that we (hopefully by that time) don't seem to need at that future date ...
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Had we held our suppliers feet to the fire, we would have had 100million doses and have been done by now. With 300 million more to share with the world.

JT and co bragged about Canada’s world leading commitment and preparedness, only to lose that to weak leadership.

Any we are where we are. Getting 1 shot into everyone fast is the best we can triage a horribly bumbled federal response.

Please never forget that JT snubbed Phizer in favour of SinoChina as a manufacturing partner. We did not need to be losers in this battle, we simply performed badly.
 
Brian P said:
USA 44.42% (+0.20%), Canada 35.49% (+0.70%). We are 8.93% behind, caught up by 0.50% yesterday. Catch-up date at current trends, 24th May.
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Apples and Oranges when you look at the overall population
 
50 percent of an apple is the same as 50 percent of an orange. Same quantity of a different fruit.
 
Wingboy said:
50 percent of an apple is the same as 50 percent of an orange. Same quantity of a different fruit.
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Still can't compare one to the other, Grown on different trees.

I still don't see what the obsession is to compare us to the states? How is that helping anything.
 
If you are not in a hot spot area and are 50+ (it was just lowered) a whole bunch of appointments opened up on the mass vaccination site central booking this morning for Pfizer/ Moderna.
 
Well that's not good. Seychelles here we come. When will chief dumb dumb finally take border quarantine seriously? Frig. My five year old has a better grasp of infection control than JT does.

www.cp24.com

Toronto, Canada & Global Breaking News – CP24

Most recent News News business news stories and video from CP24
www.cp24.com www.cp24.com

"A new study involving tens of thousands of participants in Qatar found a single dose of the Pfizer-BioNech coronavirus vaccine was only 30 per cent effective at preventing infection by the B.1.1.7 variant now pervasive in Ontario, and only 55 per cent effective at preventing hospitalization or death."

"For the B.1.351 variant first discovered in South Africa, the study saw even poorer results from one dose.

The study found one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was only 17 per cent effective in preventing infection by B.1.351.

It was found to be zero per cent effective in preventing hospitalization or death due to B.1.351.

The B.1.351 variant is only sporadically detected in Ontario, with only 246 examples detected in the past month."
 
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