COVID and the housing market

Ouch. Choices meet consequences. Family with eight kids, half with health challenges bought a house in 2021 for 800K with 3.2% fixed for three years. That renews at end of June and she has been offered 7.1%. That pushes payments from $3000 to $5100. That makes her outstanding mortgage about 650K. Her husband is now working 73 hours a week to try to cover the payments. No mention on her working but she probably has to look after the hoard.

A terrible but all too common read these days. I'm sure many of us will face the same thing(s) come our renewal. Mine is due in 2026 and I'm worried about what we will be seeing, this is our last home (next one is a pine box) but I fear living the last chapter of my life as I am unsure of what type of life I'll live.
 
Ouch. Choices meet consequences. Family with eight kids, half with health challenges bought a house in 2021 for 800K with 3.2% fixed for three years. That renews at end of June and she has been offered 7.1%. That pushes payments from $3000 to $5100. That makes her outstanding mortgage about 650K. Her husband is now working 73 hours a week to try to cover the payments. No mention on her working but she probably has to look after the hoard.

Lots of choices and consequences, no doubt.

They can also likely do much better than 7.1%... a quick look online and I see rates in the 5% to 5.7% range. That rate is likely a variable or just the posted/prime rate, maybe shop around??? Might get him down to 60 hours a week...

The rate is also likely just bad reporting... to make it look worse.
 
Lots of choices and consequences, no doubt.

They can also likely do much better than 7.1%... a quick look online and I see rates in the 5% to 5.7% range. That rate is likely a variable or just the posted/prime rate, maybe shop around??? Might get him down to 60 hours a week...

The rate is also likely just bad reporting... to make it look worse.
They may be able to do better. They have an insurable mortgage which helps. It sounds like they are maxed on ability to pay though and banks charge you more for that risk. Also, husband has no time to shop rates and wife doesn't seem to be entirely educated on financial matters as she got the rate from her bank and didn't try a mortgage broker or other options.
 
Does this sound kind of "scummy" to you?

Friend of mine and his wife are looking to move, they have no mortgage on their current home and it is currently listed.
They saw a house a month ago, but just missed out on it as a offer was already made, the offer was conditional to the buyer selling their home.
So, it's now back on the market as the buyer has had no interested in their home.
My friend makes an offer without the selling first condition.
The seller asks for a bump in the offer, my friend agrees.
The seller then asks for the closing date to be moved forward 30 days, my friend agrees.
The seller then asked for 55K more, my friend says no and the deal expires.

Not sure if it is the seller or the selling agent, but this feels like a sh!tty move to me.
To me I'm glad my friend said no...
It’s an old trick. Slightly related to bait and switch.
 
Ouch. Choices meet consequences. Family with eight kids, half with health challenges bought a house in 2021 for 800K with 3.2% fixed for three years. That renews at end of June and she has been offered 7.1%. That pushes payments from $3000 to $5100. That makes her outstanding mortgage about 650K. Her husband is now working 73 hours a week to try to cover the payments. No mention on her working but she probably has to look after the hoard.

That's a poorly researched story.

Based on the facts in her story (interest, mortgage term, payment and initial price), she would currently owe about $600K. Current rates are not 7.1%, a renewal on an insured mortgage for an average customer is 4.7% on a 5 year term.

That would jump her payment $750 if she kept the same 22 year amort, and by $500 if she reset the amort to 25 years.

Even if the mortgage went to 7.1%, the increase would be $1600/mo - or 25% less than the article suggests.
 
That's a poorly researched story.

Based on the facts in her story (interest, mortgage term, payment and initial price), she would currently owe about $600K. Current rates are not 7.1%, a renewal on an insured mortgage for an average customer is 4.7% on a 5 year term.

That would jump her payment $750 if she kept the same 22 year amort, and by $500 if she reset the amort to 25 years.

Even if the mortgage went to 7.1%, the increase would be $1600/mo - or 25% less than the article suggests.
There’s always the other fun fact people don’t let on….they (probably) borrowed heavily using their HELOC and the increase accounts for both mortgage and HELOC….
 
There’s always the other fun fact people don’t let on….they (probably) borrowed heavily using their HELOC and the increase accounts for both mortgage and HELOC….
Possible. A balanced news story would note the borrower extended their leverage - of course if you owe more than you initial loan, you're going to pay more!

Left media at it's best!
 
Fire up the HELOC's! BoC just announced a 25 basis point drop, down to 4.75%. Inflation index down to 2.7%, apparently.

I expect a bit of a bump in home sales, especially for traditional May buyers who may have been holding out, but I'm curious how long it'll last or whether folks will sit tight to see if more are coming...
 
Fire up the HELOC's! BoC just announced a 25 basis point drop, down to 4.75%. Inflation index down to 2.7%, apparently.

I expect a bit of a bump in home sales, especially for traditional May buyers who may have been holding out, but I'm curious how long it'll last or whether folks will sit tight to see if more are coming...
Lots of new listings in our area. Pricing is lowish but probably to get traffic.
 
If a 0.25% heats up the market...there's no recession, and it literally makes a difference (to me) of $40/month. I wouldn't expect much change in house pricing / sales unless you drop 1-1.5% at the very least considering prices.

How much does that lady that owes 800k save / month? $100? $200? That's a thin margin to survive.

Time to fire up the Disney+ subscription! Woo hoo!

Or should I buy those tickets to Poland for 10k next year??? What to do with all this extra money...
 
Fire up the HELOC's! BoC just announced a 25 basis point drop, down to 4.75%. Inflation index down to 2.7%, apparently.

I expect a bit of a bump in home sales, especially for traditional May buyers who may have been holding out, but I'm curious how long it'll last or whether folks will sit tight to see if more are coming...
I expect a flood of buyers. All signs point to a number of successive drops once they started. Buy now and it will probably be down another 0.5 by the time it closes and you initiate the mortgage.
 
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If a 0.25% heats up the market...there's no recession, and it literally makes a difference (to me) of $40/month. I wouldn't expect much change in house pricing / sales unless you drop 1-1.5% at the very least considering prices.

How much does that lady that owes 800k save / month? $100? $200? That's a thin margin to survive.

Time to fire up the Disney+ subscription! Woo hoo!

Or should I buy those tickets to Poland for 10k next year??? What to do with all this extra money...
If you owe 800, every 0.25 drop saves you 166 after tax dollars a month. That can add up as either available money or less hours worked.
 
I expect a flood of buyers. All signs point to a number of successive drips ince they started. Buy now and it will probably be down another 0.5 by the time it closes and you initiate the mortgage.
You think so? With such a small drop? I guess it's more of the expectation of more drops that will flood the market instead of the actual value of the rate drop.
 
Bingo. As rates come down we'll see the surge in housing again.

Do you get in while you can and enjoy the potential equity bump?

I suspect we will not see large drops in the rate for some time. The US economy is still on fire, I don't see their bank dropping rates yet and everytime we do and they don't our dollar will get hammered.
 
Bingo. As rates come down we'll see the surge in housing again.

Do you get in while you can and enjoy the potential equity bump?

I suspect we will not see large drops in the rate for some time. The US economy is still on fire, I don't see their bank dropping rates yet and everytime we do and they don't our dollar will get hammered.
The value of the dollar is an interesting dilemma. Absent that wrinkle, id expect rates to be 3-3.5 in 18 months or so. BoC has proven itself to be about as independent of politicians as SIU is independent of police. Our politicians clearly have no understanding of economics beyond spend, spend, spend. Given that we are reliant on the servants being controlled by the brain dead, it is really hard to know where this ends up.
 
The value of the dollar is an interesting dilemma. Absent that wrinkle, id expect rates to be 3-3.5 in 18 months or so. BoC has proven itself to be about as independent of politicians as SIU is independent of police. Our politicians clearly have no understanding of economics beyond spend, spend, spend. Given that we are reliant on the servants being controlled by the brain dead, it is really hard to know where this ends up.
I think it’s been shown time and again that while the USD:CAD is affected, it’s not going to magically drop 20-30-50% because of a minor change in rates.

US has 30 year mortgages that can be locked in at stupid low rates, of course they’re not as affected by interest rates to the same extent we are.
 
US has 30 year mortgages that can be locked in at stupid low rates, of course they’re not as affected by interest rates to the same extent we are.
Sort of. High rates freeze their housing market. If you have a low rate, you can't afford to move. If you dont have a mortgage yet, you aren't excited about locking in for 30 years at 7%. Not anchoring your countries gdp to housing gives them more flexibility.
 
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