COVID and the housing market

The last great housing price correction in the early 90s was different. There was a supply glut - thousands of homes were started without buyers, the only houses presold in those days were the ones on premium lots. Building costs were closer to $100/sq', A new 3000 sq' build in Newmarket could be had for $275K.
Totally true. This is when we bought our house. We had ours built, on a 60' lot. Paid $215000. But we also sold, and got less for that house than we paid. Was a risk but we figured it was worth it. It was.
Also, though we only paid $215000, house prices remained stagnant for many years after.
 
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It's not like they took out a load bearing wall in the kitchen. . . . Oh wait. At least they replaced it with a beam. . . Oh wait.

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There is a tiny tiny chance they installed the beam above the ceiling but location of potlights almost guarantees they didn't (if lack of permit was insufficient evidence). That house probably fails structural and plumbing and definitely fails electrical.
Anyone else look at the picture above and think pot lights have finally run their course.
 
16 in my kitchen ceiling , came in box of 8 , used em all


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I have 12w x 4 in my kitchen, brighter than the 2x100w incandescent that worked well for the kitchen's first50 years.
 
Swanky freehold town (with $149/mo maintenance?) just sold in north Ajax. Listed for 1.3, sold for 1.75 in one day.

45 Workmens Circle
 
I don’t want to move every 14 months , but it’s becoming very tempting . Make 4-500 grand a yr just watching . My now principle residence becomes a “rental” , I change my address to the new house , move in sort of …… and sell it 14 months later


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I don’t want to move every 14 months , but it’s becoming very tempting . Make 4-500 grand a yr just watching . My now principle residence becomes a “rental” , I change my address to the new house , move in sort of …… and sell it 14 months later


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If my wife was onboard I would do that. But she’s not. And with 3 kids moving is a major pain.

Buy, sell, move, use profit for mortgage for 2-3 years while you keep working.

Easiest way to get ahead. And tax free gains.
 
Except for two things: First, the keep the cycle going, you have to buy back into the same market, which wipes out your gains instantly. And second, the realtor cartel will take 4-5% off the top every time, severely cutting into your margins.

It used to be possible to find good value to mitigate the first, but the combination of lack of supply and all the HGTV flipping shows means run down houses have actually become overvalued, as inexperienced flippers massively underestimate the cost of renos and consequently overpay. A friend buys, renos and rents, and it's gotten to the point that the only way to get value is to prey on someone vulnerable, like a little old lady who needs to move into a retirement home, isn't aware of what she could get, and who is frightened by the selling process. He's mostly stopped buying for that reason, but the unscrupulous get even more so in their desperation for a deal.

As for realtors, you can try to bypass them with things like Purplebricks, but the cartel will then collectively blacklist the house, severely limiting your ability to get that multi-offer frenzy that is they key to really blowing the doors off your 'asking price'. Individually, realtor can be very nice, but collectively they are bordering on criminal. The system here is so broken and nobody who could fix it seems to care.

The commission adds up, too. There's an old but solid brick house on our street that was bought for $695k in late summer 2020, and sold for $915k 14 months later. So while they turned a profit of $220k, the realtors take over $50k of that straight off the top. Giving almost a quarter of your profit to a realtor for at best a few days' work is insane. These percentages were set up when houses cost 3.5 times the median family income and made sense then. But when houses cost almost 12 times the median income now, it's ridiculous bordering on comical, especially considering how we seem to just shrug and accept it. Even nutty BC has a better system of realtor fees, where it's 3.5% for the first $100k, then ~1% for the remaining. Still too much, but it'd save you over $20k on the above mentioned house...

(Don't even get me started on blind bidding, either. With the classy realtors above, it's crazy that we never know how much we overpaid and can then hold them accountable for their terrible, self-serving advice which has zero incentive to not overpay. At least now nobody is selling because they've fed this insane system, so the realtors are making less just because volume is down so much.)
 
How would you make any profit by moving? As soon as you sell your house, you have to buy in the same overpriced market, wiping out any profits you made from your old house.
 
How would you make any profit by moving? As soon as you sell your house, you have to buy in the same overpriced market, wiping out any profits you made from your old house.
You keep jumping up the latter to maintain leverage. Go from owing 500k on a 1.5 house to 500k on a 2m house, then 500k on a 2.5 house.

When you are done look back at house one. You are feeling great about your 2.5 house but house one is likely pushing 2. The gap wont be as big as it seemed at the time (especially with all the expenses and hassle factored in).
 
You keep jumping up the latter to maintain leverage. Go from owing 500k on a 1.5 house to 500k on a 2m house, then 500k on a 2.5 house.

When you are done look back at house one. You are feeling great about your 2.5 house but house one is likely pushing 2. The gap wont be as big as it seemed at the time (especially with all the expenses and hassle factored in).
I don't think it's that simple. If a 1.5 house and a 2 mil house both increase in value by say 25%, the 2 mil house has increased a lot more because 25% of 2 mil is more than 25% of 1.5 mil, so you would end up needing a bigger mortgage for the more expensive house. Also a more expensive house would have more expensive monthly carrying costs, eg higher taxes, utilities.
 
I don't think it's that simple. If a 1.5 house and a 2 mil house both increase in value by say 25%, the 2 mil house has increased a lot more because 25% of 2 mil is more than 25% of 1.5 mil, so you would end up needing a bigger mortgage for the more expensive house. Also a more expensive house would have more expensive monthly carrying costs, eg higher taxes, utilities.
But percentage increase is not linear with house price. Our old house was roughly half the price of this one and increased by 100% in the time this house increased by ~60%. This one increased by more dollars per month but not as good an investment, the last one would have been far better. The more expensive house does have far higher operating and maintenance costs.
 
Holy mother of God….by that illogical price I should get 2.2M for mine.
Nevermind. Didn't sell. Updated the asking price from 1.3 to 1.85. That's steep for a house that has significant defects. I wonder if the sellers know and don't care or if they are just completely clueless.
 
Nevermind. Didn't sell. Updated the asking price from 1.3 to 1.85. That's steep for a house that has significant defects. I wonder if the sellers know and don't care or if they are just completely clueless.
Why not both? lol

To respond to @Priller and @danp the jump from property to property is fairly simple...especially if you don't have to pay property gains. If you have to pay capital gains, just write off the expenses against the gains. This includes utilities during the renovation, lawyer fees, commissions, taxes, etc.

In addition, commissions can be negotiated nicely nowadays. So even if you get an agent, selling with a 0.5-1% agent, and leaving 2% for the buying agent you still save on the typical 5%. If I was selling privately I'd just advertise as 3% for buying agent...watch your door being banged on with buyers.

Buy first house for 500k, with a 400k mortgage...sell at 750k...take away commission, Land Transfer Tax to new property, lawyer fees, moving, etc etc etc...still probably making 150-175k on that property. So now you've got close to 300k as a down payment on the next place.

If you're smart you get your realtor license, and then sell/buy as your own agent and you save even more. Plenty of realtors do that. They're not active, but will help out friends and family for a small fee. Unlike my cousin who refused to lower her commission...so we fired her, and haven't talked to her in 5 years. No big loss.

It's a pain in the bum, and is painful when it goes sideways. But no risk no reward right?
 
Nevermind. Didn't sell. Updated the asking price from 1.3 to 1.85. That's steep for a house that has significant defects. I wonder if the sellers know and don't care or if they are just completely clueless.
I wonder. Can a previous owner who did renovations be held liable for any issues down the road (within a reasonable time frame, say a few years).
 
I wonder. Can a previous owner who did renovations be held liable for any issues down the road (within a reasonable time frame, say a few years).
Yes if they knew but small claims court is bs in Ontario because it is very difficult to collect even if you win
 
Yes if they knew but small claims court is bs in Ontario because it is very difficult to collect even if you win
Can you ‘sell’ judgements to a collection agency? 😬
 
I wonder. Can a previous owner who did renovations be held liable for any issues down the road (within a reasonable time frame, say a few years).
I doubt it.
Yes if they knew
Good luck proving that. If your contract says they didn't know of unpermitted work, you have a chance but they probably have a better real-estate lawyer than contractor so they would make sure that clause didn't make it the end. Sell the house as-is and they are pretty clean. Maybe if it burned down and killed people, you could try to sue them for negligence but it would be a hard one to win.
 
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