COVID and the housing market | Page 167 | GTAMotorcycle.com

COVID and the housing market

Anyone watch the CEO of rbc say he was very concerned about inflation and house prices? Kind of sad and funny that a profit driven institution is more concerned about public welfare more so than politicians.

Like they literally make money by giving out mortgages and hes like "uh....guys the house prices are going insane..maybe you should uh...do something about it?"
Saying something, and doing something about it are very different.

Question is, what will they do? What can they do? Or does the gov't need to step in and enforce a change?

I can only imagine that the reason I was able to get a variable at Prime - 1.3% is because rates are expected to go up soon (as in within the next month or so) and continue to climb until a magical ceiling that someone decides is high enough. Hopefully it's below 4% prime rate.
 
Anyone watch the CEO of rbc say he was very concerned about inflation and house prices? Kind of sad and funny that a profit driven institution is more concerned about public welfare more so than politicians.

Like they literally make money by giving out mortgages and hes like "uh....guys the house prices are going insane..maybe you should uh...do something about it?"
Not so much. A bump in boc rate by 0.25 often shows up in a bump in rates of 0.35. Higher rates, more profit for rbc, bigger bonus for him.
 
If somebody owns a paid off house worth 1.5 million, why wouldn't they sell it, buy a house in nova scotia or alberta for 300k, and invest the remaining 1.2 mil in a conservative portfolio that will easily pay 60k a year without ever touching the principle. Live the rest of their life without ever working again. That's what I'd do, instead of living a stressful life with a job.

Speaking as someone who's done exactly this (we sold our GTA home and moved into a tent for the better part of a decade, putting the proceeds into the market and living off the dividends), it can work out quite fantastically. During that time, our portfolio has handily outpaced the GTA real estate market.

However, this course of action is not without its pitfalls though:

1) There's Sequence of Returns Risk. If you experience a severe market decline the first few years of this plan, this, combined with the ongoing withdrawals to pay for basic living costs, could shrink your portfolio drastically and reduce the longevity of your stash moving forward. We were *very* lucky that we sold out when we did - during the middle of the longest bull market in history.

I'm not going to pretend I'm some kind of stock-picking Svengali. We could have thrown a dart on the stock market ticker sheet and still ended up making money. Everyone and their cousin did well during this period. Things are looking a lot peakier these days. I'd be wary about selling out and buying at the market top, then watching your portfolio decline steadily during a market contraction.

Okay if you're 45 years old and have time to catch the next market expansion. Not so okay if you're doing this at 65, and have to wait a decade for the portfolio to climb back to its break even point.

If you opted to stay put, real estate has a much lower beta than equities, and a broad market decline affecting all assets would see less of a % drop in RE than stocks.


2) There are trade-offs from moving from the city to a lower-cost of living, less populated area. Services that you take for granted, like snow removal, garbage disposal, being able to buy all your groceries from one store instead of doing the "supermarket shuffle", having cultural amenities like ethnic food, theatre and arts, missing the diversity and cosmopolitanism of the people around you, having to contend with the stereotypical "small-town, small-minded thinking". These are the things we're currently struggling with right now, living out in the sticks.

Fortunately the solution for us is BRAAAAAAAP!!!! and that is working quite well for the moment. But I don't see it as a permanent solution. At heart, we're city people and we miss the city.


3) As GG mentioned, you may have a support system in place where you currently live. Either you are being supported via friends and family, or you provide support. When you relocate when you're in your later adult years, it becomes more difficult to rebuild that support system, or relocating those you provide support for. We're very lucky in that our parents our very healthy and independent. If we had to take care of them, this plan would be much harder to execute.

Also, in our experience, rebuilding a network of friends is much harder in a smaller town and when you're older as well. Cliques seem harder to break into in a smaller community than a large city. We had absolutely no problems making friends in Toronto in our 30s, mainly due to shared activities like motorcycling and a much larger pool of similarly-minded people. I don't know if COVID is playing any part of that difficulty right now, but it's definitely been much slower rebuilding that network here and now.

Again, BRAAAAAAAP!!!!! helps out quite a bit.


4) If your portfolio did not match the growth of GTA real estate, then your relocation exercise is basically a one-way ticket. Lower cost-of-living areas equals lower wages. It may be enough to support you out in the boonies or in a developing country, but ultimately, it may mean being priced out of the real estate market where you originally came from. Not a good spot to be in if you found out too late that you don't like where you relocated to.

Feeling trapped and out of options is probably one of the worst feelings in the world.


If selling out and moving to a cheaper area was such a no-brainer, everyone would be doing it.
 
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Saying something, and doing something about it are very different.

Question is, what will they do? What can they do? Or does the gov't need to step in and enforce a change?

I can only imagine that the reason I was able to get a variable at Prime - 1.3% is because rates are expected to go up soon (as in within the next month or so) and continue to climb until a magical ceiling that someone decides is high enough. Hopefully it's below 4% prime rate.
There isn't much banks can do to impact inflation or house prices. The concern for banks is anything that slows the economy as that reduces transactions, increases bad loans, and causes them to cinch their sphincters when it comes to writing new loans. All bad for banks.

I'm sure the RBC CEO would prefer to see inflation and housing price rises moving a lot more slowly.
 
A lot of the guys I worked with in construction in both Ontario, and BC came in from the East Coast. No jobs out there, so they have no choice but to travel.

EDIT: Mind you, I also worked with a lot of guys from Portugal (Ontario) and Philippines (BC) that flew in on PR / Work Visas for the job, make a stupid amount of money, go back home, live like kings, and return for the next big job.
One of my favorite things is when people come to work in Ontario from elsewhere, say how bad Ontario is, how expensive housing is, how much better the weather is where their from etc. etc. etc.... Oh yeah Darryl is that so? If Victoria was so nice you'd be there right now with your kids, not here working with me on Christmas eve. Your entire economy is tourism and Chinese money laundering, stop complaining about Ontario.
 
One of my favorite things is when people come to work in Ontario from elsewhere, say how bad Ontario is, how expensive housing is, how much better the weather is where their from etc. etc. etc.... Oh yeah Darryl is that so? If Victoria was so nice you'd be there right now with your kids, not here working with me on Christmas eve. Your entire economy is tourism and Chinese money laundering, stop complaining about Ontario.

You're not wrong about the tourism and Chinese money laundering... but just because there are more jobs in Onterrible doesn't mean the weather still doesn't suck, traffic and congestion are still soul-sucking, and the housing *is* still expensive.

Those are still legitimate complaints.

Cross my fingers, I hope I never have to live in Toronto again.

I will drop in once in a while to make fun of white Harleys though....

@sburns
 
You're not wrong about the tourism and Chinese money laundering... but just because there are more jobs in Onterrible doesn't mean the weather still doesn't suck, traffic and congestion are still soul-sucking, and the housing *is* still expensive.

Those are still legitimate complaints.

Cross my fingers, I hope I never have to live in Toronto again.

I will drop in once in a while to make fun of white Harleys though....

@sburns
There is more of just about everything except Mountains in the GTA. Mo money, mo culture, mo sports, mo arts, mo cars, mo jobs.

I've lived in a dozen cities over the years and could have settled anywhere -- my opinion is Los Angeles might be the only city that's better to live in than Toronto.

The Okanagan is nice scenery and the mountains provide some great recreational opportunities. But it's still hillbilly country. I had some friends that worked at Kelowna Wines, the last time I was there the most fun thing to do was swim in the white wine vats. Yee haw!

.
 
There is more of just about everything except Mountains in the GTA. Mo money, mo culture, mo sports, mo arts, mo cars, mo jobs.

Mo pickup trucks here, tho...

The Okanagan is nice scenery and the mountains provide some great recreational opportunities. But it's still hillbilly country. I had some friends that worked at Kelowna Wines, the last time I was there the most fun thing to do was swim in the white wine vats. Yee haw!

Yep. Srs hillbilly vibes here.

Overall, we're enjoying it. Lots of nature and motorsports activities that have very little to do with the people who live here. Long-term, we figure we have two choices. We can move to Vancouver when we get sick of playing here. Or if we wait long enough, the big city will eventually come to us.

Gentrification is fast approaching, with the oil money from Calgary making its way westwards, and displaced Vancouverites, with their pockets lined with China real estate money make their way eastwards. It's an inevitability.
 
The CEO of RBC isnt concern about public welfare , hes concerned about bank exposure . When houses are unattainable he doesnt get to write mortgages and when some body defaults on a 3m house it stings . RBC does not want to own houses , they want to wring every nickle out of those that can keep up.
 
There is more of just about everything except Mountains in the GTA. Mo money, mo culture, mo sports, mo arts, mo cars, mo jobs.

I've lived in a dozen cities over the years and could have settled anywhere -- my opinion is Los Angeles might be the only city that's better to live in than Toronto.

The Okanagan is nice scenery and the mountains provide some great recreational opportunities. But it's still hillbilly country. I had some friends that worked at Kelowna Wines, the last time I was there the most fun thing to do was swim in the white wine vats. Yee haw!

.
Did you meet my cousin? How many washing machines does he have on his front lawn now or does the grass hide them?
 
Speaking as someone who's done exactly this (we sold our GTA home and moved into a tent for the better part of a decade, putting the proceeds into the market and living off the dividends), it can work out quite fantastically. During that time, our portfolio has handily outpaced the GTA real estate market.

However, this course of action is not without its pitfalls though:

1) There's Sequence of Returns Risk. If you experience a severe market decline the first few years of this plan, this, combined with the ongoing withdrawals to pay for basic living costs, could shrink your portfolio drastically and reduce the longevity of your stash moving forward. We were *very* lucky that we sold out when we did - during the middle of the longest bull market in history.

I'm not going to pretend I'm some kind of stock-picking Svengali. We could have thrown a dart on the stock market ticker sheet and still ended up making money. Everyone and their cousin did well during this period. Things are looking a lot peakier these days. I'd be wary about selling out and buying at the market top, then watching your portfolio decline steadily during a market contraction.

Okay if you're 45 years old and have time to catch the next market expansion. Not so okay if you're doing this at 65, and have to wait a decade for the portfolio to climb back to its break even point.

If you opted to stay put, real estate has a much lower beta than equities, and a broad market decline affecting all assets would see less of a % drop in RE than stocks.


2) There are trade-offs from moving from the city to a lower-cost of living, less populated area. Services that you take for granted, like snow removal, garbage disposal, being able to buy all your groceries from one store instead of doing the "supermarket shuffle", having cultural amenities like ethnic food, theatre and arts, missing the diversity and cosmopolitanism of the people around you, having to contend with the stereotypical "small-town, small-minded thinking". These are the things we're currently struggling with right now, living out in the sticks.

Fortunately the solution for us is BRAAAAAAAP!!!! and that is working quite well for the moment. But I don't see it as a permanent solution. At heart, we're city people and we miss the city.


3) As GG mentioned, you may have a support system in place where you currently live. Either you are being supported via friends and family, or you provide support. When you relocate when you're in your later adult years, it becomes more difficult to rebuild that support system, or relocating those you provide support for. We're very lucky in that our parents our very healthy and independent. If we had to take care of them, this plan would be much harder to execute.

Also, in our experience, rebuilding a network of friends is much harder in a smaller town and when you're older as well. Cliques seem harder to break into in a smaller community than a large city. We had absolutely no problems making friends in Toronto in our 30s, mainly due to shared activities like motorcycling and a much larger pool of similarly-minded people. I don't know if COVID is playing any part of that difficulty right now, but it's definitely been much slower rebuilding that network here and now.

Again, BRAAAAAAAP!!!!! helps out quite a bit.


4) If your portfolio did not match the growth of GTA real estate, then your relocation exercise is basically a one-way ticket. Lower cost-of-living areas equals lower wages. It may be enough to support you out in the boonies or in a developing country, but ultimately, it may mean being priced out of the real estate market where you originally came from. Not a good spot to be in if you found out too late that you don't like where you relocated to.

Feeling trapped and out of options is probably one of the worst feelings in the world.


If selling out and moving to a cheaper area was such a no-brainer, everyone would be doing it.
All good points but there is a personality trait that needs to be looked at.

Are you a happy person?

If a poor unhappy person wins a lottery they become happy for a while but in a few years they are rich and unhappy.

If a rich happy person loses everything, for a while they are unhappy but in a few years they are poor but again happy.

If you aren't happy with what you are, you'll never be happy with what you have.
 
All good points but there is a personality trait that needs to be looked at.

Are you a happy person?

If a poor unhappy person wins a lottery they become happy for a while but in a few years they are rich and unhappy.

If a rich happy person loses everything, for a while they are unhappy but in a few years they are poor but again happy.

If you aren't happy with what you are, you'll never be happy with what you have.

Yes! I feel like there was another thread where we talked about this. It's called "hedonic adaptation".

Most people that move because they're unhappy find that their unhappiness ends up moving with them. Your state of mind creates your happiness, not your surroundings. I mentioned before how the happiest ex-pats moved *to* somewhere they loved, not *away* from something they hated. They were always able to create their own happiness, wherever they were because it was a part of themselves.

If you're a glass half empty kind of person, you're never going to be happy even if your glass is half full of chardonnay.

If you're a glass half full kind of person, you'll be ecstatic that your glass is half full of dirty tap water because it's better than not having any water at all.
 

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