Covid and Science

I'll just asked a scientist.

Hardy Riders: first good day: Tues March 1st. Daily riding should start around Mar 19.

Posers: April 20

Pirates: May 20
$hit...I need to put the bike together again! Almost finishing up the renovation repairs, and can focus back again on the valve clearance issue.
 
$hit...I need to put the bike together again! Almost finishing up the renovation repairs, and can focus back again on the valve clearance issue.
Just use my old one in the meantime, same bike, just 5 years older :P
 
One fallacy is to believe that 'science' is one single blob, where all of the 'scientists' agree. An epidemiologist is going to have a very specific (although likely accurate) view of a problem, while an economist is going to have a different view. Both views can be true, but explaining the possible interactions between those two views to the general public is almost impossible.

Consider that by some measures (source picked at random), half of the Canadian population can't read at a high school level. Consider that A&W's third-pounder burger failed because people didn't understand that a 1/3 of a pound is larger than 1/4 of a pound: "3 is smaller than 4, why are you charging more money for less meat?"

Now try to explain exponential growth to any of those people. Or the difference between correlation and causation. Or the difference between absolute and relative risk: "This thing has double the risk of this other thing!", when the risk of either thing is .001% and .002%.

You have just outlined the key point in all of this. Education.

You need literacy, skills to discern the wheat from the chaff, you need the skills to listen to both sides and understand the scientific argument from among all the red herrings. You need to know when you’re being manipulated and why.
 
Long term, education is absolutely the answer. Short term, you need to be able to explain things to those who don't have it in ways that they understand and can accept. An excerpt from the burger article:
Other companies — especially fast food ones — learned how clear communication needs to be. Companies also had to put their ego to the side, drop the judgment, and learn how to market and advertise in the clearest, most concise way possible.

It’s easy to snicker at the average person not being able to do a fraction, but if the language or terms you use can even have a hint of confusion you need to nip it in the bud or it could cost you millions.

In the article they're talking about a cost of millions of dollars, but in the pandemic we're talking about a cost of millions of lives. The principle is the same though - by their nature, most scientists are generally lousy at communicating ideas to the general public, especially if there is any element of uncertainty. That's not their job, most of the time.

Even the idea of being able to adequately explain something to someone implicitly assumes that once explained, they will agree with it. That definitely doesn't seem to be the case. People, regardless of their education level, will accept or reject information that they don't fully understand based on how much they trust the source of that information.
 
Not everyone has that luxury. My wife luckily is self employed and didn't get hit TOO hard by it as she was able to adjust her client base annnnnd a part time data entry job literally fell out of the sky for her as well. But if she didn't know her boss (who is a friend) this well and the boss wasn't flexible she wouldn't be able to do that data entry job.

I remain unaffected after 2 years of WFH.

But a lot of people aren't in my position or her position. Not everyone gets to work from home. Not everyone can get a job at the same salary level to cover housing costs just by sending out resumes. Or find a unicorn job that allows you to take care of your kids while you work!? Half marriages end up in divorce and thats a whole lot of single parents who have to "wing" it. Heck even if you want to downsize, the market is so ridiculous that you probably wouldn't be improving your financial situation. These are f**ked up times lol
@mimico_polak

I disagree, everyone has that option.

You guys ‘chose’ the lifestyle you have. No one put a gun to your head and said have 3 kids, buy that 5 bedroom 3 bath ‘mansion’, or commute only 5 minutes from home.

There are plenty of cheaper lifestyle choices that anyone could make, but we typically want our cake and eat it too.

Could any of you pack up this summer and move to BC interior and make it work? I don’t doubt it. Would you be compromising on something you value at the moment? Yep.
 
@mimico_polak

I disagree, everyone has that option.

You guys ‘chose’ the lifestyle you have. No one put a gun to your head and said have 3 kids, buy that 5 bedroom 3 bath ‘mansion’, or commute only 5 minutes from home.

There are plenty of cheaper lifestyle choices that anyone could make, but we typically want our cake and eat it too.

Could any of you pack up this summer and move to BC interior and make it work? I don’t doubt it. Would you be compromising on something you value at the moment? Yep.
Sure everyone has the option. I COULD go work somewhere for 60k/year...but I choose not to because I chose my lifestyle and number of kids (#3 is up for debate on the choice part LoL).

But you're right, it's about choices, and we all want our cake and eat it too. But once you get entrenched in a lifestyle then it gets harder and harder to make that change.

If I wanted to make a LOT of money, I'd just sign up with my previous employer and let them send me around the world to wherever the jobs are...good money, horrible lifestyle (for us).

My only point is that it's not as easy as 'just change jobs' and it doesn't work for a vast majority. Nothing else. Add kids, mortgages, houses, and family support systems...and it becomes much more difficult.
 
Long term, education is absolutely the answer. Short term, you need to be able to explain things to those who don't have it in ways that they understand and can accept. An excerpt from the burger article:


In the article they're talking about a cost of millions of dollars, but in the pandemic we're talking about a cost of millions of lives. The principle is the same though - by their nature, most scientists are generally lousy at communicating ideas to the general public, especially if there is any element of uncertainty. That's not their job, most of the time.

Even the idea of being able to adequately explain something to someone implicitly assumes that once explained, they will agree with it. That definitely doesn't seem to be the case. People, regardless of their education level, will accept or reject information that they don't fully understand based on how much they trust the source of that information.

Yes, but put in context for today. We faced (and are still facing) one of the biggest public health emergencies some of us will ever experience in our lifetime. It was serious enough to affect nearly everything globally. It continues and we have been experiencing this for 2y and still some people refuse to read and understand what’s going on. You can have an opinion and debate on components of the pandemic but we have people who still don’t believe there was one, still don’t think they should alter their behaviour to adjust at all, still think it’s a personal imposition on their way of life to do anything whatsoever to help society as a whole. There is a serious, dangerous, fundamental societal deficit somewhere. If this situation didn’t motivate you to find out what’s going on and inform yourself properly without trying to score gotcha points on social media or siding with your tribe on the science or lack of it then as a society we are screwed for any emergency going forward.

If you really want to know why we will probably never do anything about climate change, which is the long term theat to all of us, then this is it. Some people just do not care at all, will never care, and can’t be bothered even trying to care.
 
Sure everyone has the option. I COULD go work somewhere for 60k/year...but I choose not to because I chose my lifestyle and number of kids (#3 is up for debate on the choice part LoL).

But you're right, it's about choices, and we all want our cake and eat it too. But once you get entrenched in a lifestyle then it gets harder and harder to make that change.

If I wanted to make a LOT of money, I'd just sign up with my previous employer and let them send me around the world to wherever the jobs are...good money, horrible lifestyle (for us).

My only point is that it's not as easy as 'just change jobs' and it doesn't work for a vast majority. Nothing else. Add kids, mortgages, houses, and family support systems...and it becomes much more difficult.
Technically true.

But travelling type business aside do people live where the work is or work where the home is?

Changing jobs can mean changing the lifestyle and that’s not a bad thing. You’d probably have a lot less stress at 60k/year in BC interior and likely a lot less overhead.

That’s what I was really saying about ‘change jobs’. 😬
 
Technically true.

But travelling type business aside do people live where the work is or work where the home is?

Changing jobs can mean changing the lifestyle and that’s not a bad thing. You’d probably have a lot less stress at 60k/year in BC interior and likely a lot less overhead.

That’s what I was really saying about ‘change jobs’. 😬
Depends on the job. Ideally (and not always possible) is living somewhere near....with my line of work...jobs happen where they happen. You either travel to it, or you change jobs.

Before I went to butt eff nowhere in BC I had the option to move to Melbourne with my family instead on a 5 year assignment. We felt that the BC option was better for our family so we went with that. Speaking with my buddy that upped and moved his whole family to Melbourne...we made the right choice.

Been a while since I spoke with him, but he wasn't happy last I spoke with him about it.
 
An old friend now deceased was home schooled right through high school in the deep interior of BC. He wrote his university entrance exams and got into UBC , he ended up a nuclear scientist with atomic energy canada. He did have a sister growing up.

He never got arrested or wound up living in a shelter or beat his wife, so this kids will all be wrecked thing is maybe a stretch , maybe some parents could work just a bit harder to amuse and entertain and educate thier own kids. If covid has shown us anything its the disconnect in families and the ability to parent.
Just jerking your chain....

What were his internet and cell phone costs? How often did he upgrade his cell phone and laptop? Were there Starbucks shops in BC then or just Timmies? Was a Rolex a big thing then? BMW or MB?

Over the last century kids started out earning their parents. Now they are out spending them.

A friend commented he used to brag about how little he could get a shirt for. His asset-less son (45 YO) brags about how MUCH he spends on a shirt.

Covid will likely get the blame for just about every problem we will ever face. Every price increase will be "Covid".

Every personal failure "Covid". Covid will replace "The dog ate my homework"

We've, as a society, been outgrowing our abilities and it was getting edgy before Covid. Covid may have pushed a lot of stuff over the edge but when your toes are over the lip of the cliff it doesn't take much of a push.

Rights without responsibility, credit beyond ability to pay, YOLO, but when it's time to settle down and go domestic "I deserve a house with granite up the ying yang because I'm important. My mother told me so."

It's easier to blame Covid than the image in the mirror. The image has to be perfect, in charge, unquestioned, superior, infallible. "Hell hath no fury like an image scorned" SOMEBODY should.........

My apologies to Mr. Congreve for the plagiarism.
 
@mimico_polak

I disagree, everyone has that option.

You guys ‘chose’ the lifestyle you have. No one put a gun to your head and said have 3 kids, buy that 5 bedroom 3 bath ‘mansion’, or commute only 5 minutes from home.

There are plenty of cheaper lifestyle choices that anyone could make, but we typically want our cake and eat it too.

Could any of you pack up this summer and move to BC interior and make it work? I don’t doubt it. Would you be compromising on something you value at the moment? Yep.
I also disagree. People have options, but not all options are good options for your situation.

A lot of the people who struggle aren't the people with tons of kids and the mansions. It's the people who might still be renting because they can't get a downpayment, maybe a single parent, that works paycheck to paycheck. Might not have family alive to help them or close friends. When you're already near the bottom, is it truly lifestyle that's keeping you back?

In my case i have parents (divorced) in their mid 70s-80s who might require my help. I can't just uproot and leave them. It's not a gun to my head but it's an obligation. Having dependant people in your case whether it be younger or older ones makes this type of drastic move an unlikely option. And obviously the grass is always greener, until you get there and realize that it's not necessarily that much better.
 
I also disagree. People have options, but not all options are good options for your situation.

A lot of the people who struggle aren't the people with tons of kids and the mansions. It's the people who might still be renting because they can't get a downpayment, maybe a single parent, that works paycheck to paycheck. Might not have family alive to help them or close friends. When you're already near the bottom, is it truly lifestyle that's keeping you back?

In my case i have parents (divorced) in their mid 70s-80s who might require my help. I can't just uproot and leave them. It's not a gun to my head but it's an obligation. Having dependant people in your case whether it be younger or older ones makes this type of drastic move an unlikely option. And obviously the grass is always greener, until you get there and realize that it's not necessarily that much better.
Sure. I just don’t agree that painting it with a brush is necessarily true. It may not be a good option for you, but the option exists nevertheless.

Single and struggling for a down payment? Down payment where? GTA? Is your dream of home ownership now on hold because you’re tied to elder parents who *might* need you one day? That’s a choice.

I once had a conversation with my sister a few years back. She’s doing middling work and kinda lost. Not saving much and not improving her situation. She’s trained in basic medicine (PSW etc) I asked why she doesn’t go to another province for awhile where there is large demand and grind for awhile. Come back with some bank and do whatever she wants now she has the flexibility? Answer; why would I leave my friends???!

./shrug
 
Sure. I just don’t agree that painting it with a brush is necessarily true. It may not be a good option for you, but the option exists nevertheless.

Single and struggling for a down payment? Down payment where? GTA? Is your dream of home ownership now on hold because you’re tied to elder parents who *might* need you one day? That’s a choice.

I once had a conversation with my sister a few years back. She’s doing middling work and kinda lost. Not saving much and not improving her situation. She’s trained in basic medicine (PSW etc) I asked why she doesn’t go to another province for awhile where there is large demand and grind for awhile. Come back with some bank and do whatever she wants now she has the flexibility? Answer; why would I leave my friends???!

./shrug
Nah my own situation is quite different. I'm happy where i am to be honest, i'm in a good position.
My father on the other hand..well..he's on his 2nd stroke, wheelchair-bound-ish and with recently new memory issues due to a brain hematoma he got in december (actually just got back from a week there to help him get settled again in his apartment, cause he refuses absolutely to go in a 'home') and i won't get into my mom's situation lol.

I'm originally from Quebec and did the move to ontario actually to improve my situation, and it worked in my favour, just look at all that equity! ;)
So i understand what uprooting is like and it can work..but in certain circumstances you could easily be setting yourself up for failure without a safety net to catch you.
 
Nah my own situation is quite different. I'm happy where i am to be honest, i'm in a good position.
My father on the other hand..well..he's on his 2nd stroke, wheelchair-bound-ish and with recently new memory issues due to a brain hematoma he got in december (actually just got back from a week there to help him get settled again in his apartment, cause he refuses absolutely to go in a 'home') and i won't get into my mom's situation lol.

I'm originally from Quebec and did the move to ontario actually to improve my situation, and it worked in my favour, just look at all that equity! ;)
So i understand what uprooting is like and it can work..but in certain circumstances you could easily be setting yourself up for failure without a safety net to catch you.
The choice to move from Quebec trumps any other choices you’ve made since then!

Anywho, we can poke holes in any statement, there are no absolutes. But I find it rather odd that many people are held back because they don’t believe there’s a way other then the one they see in front of them. To your point, you made a change and change is almost never easy.

In regards to change. I am always motivated by reading about the history of Samsung. Feel free to take a gander. I had a good summary once but lost it. This glosses over the ups and downs but you’ll get the gist.

 
Science says 3 shots give you the best coverage for omicron. Vaccines lower transmission and hospitalization rates very effectively (ignore the noise from idiots and look at real data). Masks work.

Science also says we are nearly out of this regarding this particular variant and to lower the chances of another variant the above needs to be done (worldwide). We aren’t there right now and being cavalier about things has a chance to set us back.

I’m cautiously optimistic we will have a normalish summer. Also to be clear, if we do it’s because so many stepped up to get vaccinated.
The problem is people conflate their politics & science. The real data can't prove it. There are too many variable involved.

If I use your terms:
The people insisting your statement is correct, despite knowing it isn't 100% provable, are the idiots.
The ones seeing through the statement, but then insisting that the exact opposite must therefore be true are imbeciles.
Finally, the ones hoping your statement is true for their current circumstances, but realize that there could be other factors in play as well, are morons.
 
The problem is people conflate their politics & science. The real data can't prove it. There are too many variable involved.

If I use your terms:
The people insisting your statement is correct, despite knowing it isn't 100% provable, are the idiots.
The ones seeing through the statement, but then insisting that the exact opposite must therefore be true are imbeciles.
Finally, the ones hoping your statement is true for their current circumstances, but realize that there could be other factors in play as well, are morons.

Real data most definitely does prove that. The problem isn’t conflation but selective bias. If you truly believe three shots won’t help BEFORE checking to see if that’s actually true from the latest data then many people simply don’t want to read anything that goes against that belief. I don’t know whether it’s fear of their whole house of cards tumbling down if one card falls or whether it’s simply what I stated above, that you’re with your tribe no matter what, facts be damned.

There’s an issue with black and white and shades of grey here too. Since everyone is so tribal nowadays the people in their tribes want a black and white answer. Either yes it works, or no it doesn’t, there’s no room for nuance or context. An example…one tribe sees vaxxed people getting sick too, their response is “it doesn’t work”. The situation is complex and you can’t apply a simplistic yes/no decision to everything. It takes some time to make an effort to see and understand the nuance and context. That’s something many people simply don’t have the patience or willpower to do.
 
Real data most definitely does prove that. The problem isn’t conflation but selective bias. If you truly believe three shots won’t help BEFORE checking to see if that’s actually true from the latest data then many people simply don’t want to read anything that goes against that belief. I don’t know whether it’s fear of their whole house of cards tumbling down if one card falls or whether it’s simply what I stated above, that you’re with your tribe no matter what, facts be damned.

There’s an issue with black and white and shades of grey here too. Since everyone is so tribal nowadays the people in their tribes want a black and white answer. Either yes it works, or no it doesn’t, there’s no room for nuance or context. An example…one tribe sees vaxxed people getting sick too, their response is “it doesn’t work”. The situation is complex and you can’t apply a simplistic yes/no decision to everything. It takes some time to make an effort to see and understand the nuance and context. That’s something many people simply don’t have the patience or willpower to do.
If it did then UAE, with the highest vaccination rate, would have the lowest death and infection rates, which it does not.
There are other factors in play. Places like Japan which was very slow to vaccinate, have done remarkably well. I can lay out exactly what we should have done if you want, but I've already done that. That's not to say that vaccines aren't valuable, but right now, the priority should be to get them out to the rest of the world and stop the spread. I don't give a hoot about tribes, I believe in the truth, and the facts. So don't give me your black and white answer. Give me the truth. I can handle it. After we know what's going on, we can make compromises, that make things easier for us.

If people would stop exaggerating to try and make certain things happen, then many more people would be on board.
Some want their opponents to stay anti vax and die, some want to persuade them, but if it's a lie, people will see through it.
 
In the past, while i was working at customer service for different financial products at a bank, i realized that a lot of Canadians have a low levels of financial literacy, that's the bulk of what kept me (and hundreds of other customer service reps) employed there back in the day. Half the owners of credit cards don't pay them in full. Most people don't have emergency funds. A lot of people will buy a house based on their pre-approval amount, not necessarily what they have budgeted. Leasing/financing brand new cars over 7 years...Heck having to go over my dad's finances for the past 15 years, when we did the POA, it was a mess, and that guy has a PhD.

Science and being data centric can erode empathy imo.

I figured out the stuff you said around 19. I know some ppl who figured out when 16. We had conversations about this when younger and concluded: "we will win because we can rely on the vast majority to be financially inept and stupid af."

For some reason, it wasn't until we're in our mid 30s that we realized how ****** up the system and people are. The vast majority have been financially inept and stupid af; that's why we've surpassed them. But I'm confused if we're supposed to be happy and embrace the pathological /psychopathic nature of that mindset; in order to win, there must be some insanely fat, poor, and suffering losers.
 
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