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Coronavirus

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"Death rate 0.024%" -> Dislike how simple-minded people do a simple-minded calculation and assume that's how it is.

How did they get that number? -> Looks like they divided the number of deaths so far in Canada (9,541) by the approximate population of the country (38 million) and that's the number you get. (it's actually 0.025% but whatever, maybe they did the calculation a few days ago).

Is it wrong? No. The numbers that it uses in the calculation are, at least to the best of our knowledge, approximately correct.

But ... What does that number really mean?

That number means the probability of any random person having died of this disease in Canada so far. You divided the number of deaths so far by the total population - which includes an awful lot of people who (thankfully) have not been exposed to the virus and gotten sick of it YET.

It in NO way represents the probability of any random person dying of this disease in Canada going forward. That is a number that we don't know, and won't know and can't know, until this is all over. And that is a number which depends quite strongly on our own actions. If we all wear masks and physical-distance and do it all perfectly, so that continued infection stops in its tracks right now, then that's the number it will end up being, because there won't be any more cases - it's over. If we sit back and do nothing and pretend that the virus doesn't exist and remove all public health measures ... that number has the potential of being much, much bigger by the time this is all over. It WILL be bigger than it is right now - by how much, depends on the actions that we all take.
 
There's another way to estimate "probability of dying of this disease": look south of the border.

Due to lack of appropriate public health measures, US numbers have stabilised at around 40,000 new cases per day and around 800 deaths per day. It's been somewhere near that for two months ... I will grant that the number of deaths per day is going down, but painfully slowly.

If the testing in the USA is so great that they're capturing every new case (which we know they're not! but if you listen to the orange one, they have the best testing in the world, so how could it not be capturing every new case?) then at that roughly-steady-state rate, 800 deaths per day among 40,000 new cases per day is a 2% death rate among those who get infected. That's not a million miles away from what the experts suggested early on that the death rate from this disease was going to be.

At 40,000 cases per day, if they're capturing every new case which they ought to if their testing was as good as some people hype it up to be, it'll take about 8000 days, call it 20 years, for this to burn through the entire population.

In reality, we know they're not capturing anywhere near the real number of cases, which means the death rate isn't as high as that, and it'll take less time to burn through the whole population.

In Spain, it's estimated based on antibody testing that around 5% of the population has been infected (2.4 million people) and that suggests a case fatality rate of about 1.3%. Spain is currently having a second wave ... which means the number of cases so far is not nearly enough for the much-vaunted "herd immunity" to take effect.
 
GreyGhost said:
Toronto CMOH released her current modelling data. It's not good. The first few comments in response to the data being published make it very clear that this is going to get much worse and drag on for a long time.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1313945476551540736
Click to expand...

With decades of data some people still refuse to wear their seat belts. What is that compliance rate?

It's easy to see if a person has a face mask but are they wearing it properly or under the nose or even only on the chin?

The compliance rate for having a mask is pretty high in a store but a lot aren't being worn properly. How does that factor in?

Away from the store how many comply or err on the side of caution when out for a walk? Factor?

Social distancing, particularly bubbles, is IMO a disaster.

There's the dingbat factor. People will buy a designer piece of cloth at six times the price of an N95 or KN95 all because they look cool. Safety isn't a fashion statement.

We're better off than a Trump rally but what do we have to do to keep the numbers down?

Mask police? Distancing police? 100% lock down except for groceries? Only one household member per house allowed out to shop? Five Km travel limit?

It's going to get worse. Right now people can get together at a park if they stay a distance apart. That won't happen in February. Our bank almost always has an outside line-up which is OK in decent weather but that is changing.

Why do we ride motorcycles when they are five times as risky as a car? Why do we continue to ride after a close call or a crash? We all take risks but this one doesn't have the same visible crash site at the side of the road. Is it the optics?
 
Ford has basically said Thanksgiving is bubble only.

I haven't heard but assume Halloween is gong to be a dud as well with distancing to strangers and candy contact being issues. There might be a lot of treats left on the store shelves.

Barring a miracle, Christmas will suck as will Christmas shopping. New Years Eve will double suck because after 2020 we really need a new year.
 
The deaths are now rising, but ol dougie wont close indoor dining, gyms, bars, and schools without the 'facts'
 
bigpoppa said:
The deaths are now rising, but ol dougie wont close indoor dining, gyms, bars, and schools without the 'facts'
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It is an interesting issue. Toronto has traced ~half of their cases to restaurants/gyms/bars. That being said, according to Douggie, that is ~20 problem locations that weren't following the rules and whacking the remaining 7500 would be brutal for them.

I think we are well beyond the time where zero tolerance is required for commercial establishments that choose to ignore the rules. Get caught breaking rules and the door is immediately locked for a long time (maybe one to three months for the first time you are caught?). Way too many establishments are arguing that they were only breaking rules the second they got caught but were in compliance all other times which seems like a stretch at best. There are some that are either not taking this seriously or choosing to follow their own reality and those few need to be shut down. If that percentage goes too high (maybe 3% like typical rate for increasing covid restrictions?) then shut them all.
 
We cut way back on dining out through the pandemic and until late September only did the odd patio. I have in the last couple weeks went into a few pubs/restaurants (TO) and the ones I have hit seemed to have things well sorted. Only every other table, lots of spacing, people wearing masks, lots of cleaning. I just don't see how this, when done this way, can be the main cause of the current numbers.

Now places that are not doing this, yes, Gyms I cannot see how that can work at all with all these different people using equipment. Bars/Clubs not following the rules, yes.

I still think it is the let everyone into the stores, etc. (no more lining up outside limiting the people in the store) that is the main cause. if so that is easy to fix.
 
The problem with diseases is, if you dont clamp down hard early, they become less predictable in their spreading, especially in a crowded place, like say toronto

Kind of like at the beginning, all the cases were related to travel and flights, now not so predictable

Willing to bet most of the initial cases were spread indoors at restaurants, gyms, movie theaters, bars, strip clubs, schools etc
Now its harder to trace where they're coming from, because we didnt initially clamp down

Maybe doug just hates toronto, he did always think it was full of fake people or something

This pretty much sums up my thoughts on covid:

https://imgur.com/sviYc6a
 
bigpoppa said:
The problem with diseases is, if you dont clamp down hard early, they become less predictable in their spreading, especially in a crowded place, like say toronto

Kind of like at the beginning, all the cases were related to travel and flights, now not so much

Willing to bet most of the initial cases were spread indoors at restaurants, gyms, movie theaters, bars, strip clubs, schools etc
Now its harder to trace where they're coming from, because we didnt initially clamp down

Maybe doug just hates toronto, he did always think it was full of fake people or something

This pretty much sums up my thoughts on covid:

https://imgur.com/sviYc6a
Click to expand...
That seems partially reasonable but you need to look at the next step. We are not an island. Even if we were to eradicate it in Ontario/Canada, there are tons of exemptions that allow movement to other areas (and back). It would start again. NZ had it eradicated and it came back. Sure, it is easier to contact trace lower numbers but you are still dealing with controlling a rapidly spreading infection even after the hard lock down.
 
GreyGhost said:
It is an interesting issue. Toronto has traced ~half of their cases to restaurants/gyms/bars. That being said, according to Douggie, that is ~20 problem locations that weren't following the rules and whacking the remaining 7500 would be brutal for them.

I think we are well beyond the time where zero tolerance is required for commercial establishments that choose to ignore the rules. Get caught breaking rules and the door is immediately locked for a long time (maybe one to three months for the first time you are caught?). Way too many establishments are arguing that they were only breaking rules the second they got caught but were in compliance all other times which seems like a stretch at best. There are some that are either not taking this seriously or choosing to follow their own reality and those few need to be shut down. If that percentage goes too high (maybe 3% like typical rate for increasing covid restrictions?) then shut them all.
Click to expand...

You're too lenient. I keep harping on Roman decimation.
 
GreyGhost said:
That seems partially reasonable but you need to look at the next step. We are not an island. Even if we were to eradicate it in Ontario/Canada, there are tons of exemptions that allow movement to other areas (and back). It would start again. NZ had it eradicated and it came back. Sure, it is easier to contact trace lower numbers but you are still dealing with controlling a rapidly spreading infection even after the hard lock down.
Click to expand...

I keep asking my relatives in New Zealand if we could borrow the Tasman Sea for a while, having it relocated to our southern border. No luck so far.
 
Read a report that hospital beds in Paris, France are now 40% occupied with COVID patients. Belgium is also having an issue. They are blaming the problem on Cafe culture...socializing for long periods in close proximity inside.
 
jc100 said:
Read a report that hospital beds in Paris, France are now 40% occupied with COVID patients. Belgium is also having an issue. They are blaming the problem on Cafe culture...socializing for long periods in close proximity inside.
Click to expand...
Ontario hospitals are operating slightly below historically average levels but that means ~98% capacity instead of over 100% capacity. Not a lot of room to put people if hospitalizations pick up.
 
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