My observation... what they are missing in the current spread is the reduction in social distancing in stores. As an example, our local LCBO had people lining up outside (distanced) and they only let a certain number of people in the store, easy social distancing. Month or so ago they now just let everyone in, no more line-ups outside, store can be packed, social distancing is dramatically reduced and difficult, I guess they rely on masks only.... I see this exact same thing for pretty much all stores now with few exceptions.
While bars etc. are a problem I think this is the change that is behind the numbers and is an easy step back to fix it.