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Coronavirus

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Brian P said:
It's pretty apparent that you don't understand what a shutdown is supposed to accomplish and how and why. I will try my best. I will number the paragraphs - identify the ones that you don't "get".

1. This disease spreads via interpersonal contact. An infected person comes in contact (basically, breathes/coughs/sneezes) with a person who is not infected, and presto, the person who is not infected is now infected.

2. As of right now, not everyone has this disease. The number who don't have it still vastly outnumber those who do have it.

3. Interactions between the small number who do have it, are infecting people who don't have it. (In the absence of any countermeasures, it seems that each infected person infects 3 or 4 healthy people.)

4. This disease has an incubation period of a few days. Once infected, you will be infectious but without symptoms for a few days (variable, average seems to be 4 or 5). After a week or perhaps a little less, you will start feeling sick, and after about 10 or 12 days, if you happen to be one of the people that gets hit hard by it, that's when you will be really hit. Either way ... you'll know. After a couple of weeks, you will be either healthy (free of the disease), or sick.

5a. Absence of any countermeasures at all, we allow people to freely mix. Every sick person continues infecting 3 or 4 healthy people, and even if their own particular case gets resolved (either by recovering, or by dying), those other 3 or 4 people now have it, and the number of cases grows exponentially until it starts reaching a limiting case ... which is that (almost) everyone has the disease. This disease in the absence of countermeasures doubles the number of cases roughly every 4 days because of this. 100 becomes 200 4 days later, then 800 4 days later, then 1600, then 3200, then 6400, then 12800, and somewhere around that is where the health care system of a decent-size country like Italy starts being overwhelmed, because there are only a finite number of hospital beds, doctors (who are themselves at a constant risk of infection), etc.

5b. Ideally, we stop ALL interpersonal interaction. Yes, I know, not possible, but reality is somewhere on a continuum between 5a and 5b. But let's imagine what happens if we do stop ALL interpersonal interaction at a certain point in time. Let's say there are 500 cases that you know about, and 2500 cases that you don't know about (infected, but not yet showing symptoms, or not yet diagnosed) at the time that you do this. Now, those 3000 people are isolated for two weeks. They can't interact with anyone else. They can't spread the disease because they're not interacting with anyone that they could spread it to. So, what happens? For the healthy uninfected people, they come out the other side of it uninfected, because they were never exposed to anyone who was infected during those two weeks. For the people that were sick at the time that you did this, they come out the other side either recovered, or dead. Either way, those people are also no longer capable of infecting anyone. For the 2500 that were infected but not yet showing symptoms ... they will now, at a minimum, know that they are sick (and should continue being isolated afterward - thus not infecting anyone); hopefully the disease may have even run its course and they have recovered ... or maybe they're dead. Regardless, the people that had the disease, whether they knew it or not at the beginning, will know at the end, and either go back to normal life (recovered) or continue self-isolation until they recover (or die).

6. Now, obviously, that ideal case can not be achieved. Infections have a certain exposure factor called R0 - basically, it's the number of people that an infected person spreads the disease to. For covid-19 in the absence of any countermeasures (people interact freely), R0 is 3 or 4. For that ideal case 5b above, R0 = 0 and the infection is stopped dead in its tracks. It turns out that if R0 is greater than 1, the infection is spreading (more and more people are getting infected), and if R0 is less than 1, it is dying out (fewer and fewer people are getting infected).

7. So, realizing that we cannot achieve complete isolation to stop the disease in its tracks (R0 = 0 for one incubation period), we actually just need to get it so that R0 is less than 1 for a number of incubation periods so that it eventually dies out. How do you do that? Reduce interpersonal interaction!

So what's this got to do with stopping travel? Because stopping travel is a necessary condition for minimising interpersonal interaction. What's it got to do with stopping businesses from doing business? Because you have to do that, in order to cut down interpersonal interaction. What's it got to do with stopping conventions, meetings, sporting events, concerts, and bars? Because you have to cut down interpersonal interaction.
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If you think that only humans can host something this small that lives in lungs then you are an idiot.
 
Trials said:
If you think that only humans can host something this small that lives in lungs then you are an idiot.
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A chipmunk doesn't normally run from house to house touching everything and coughing on people. I'm not saying they can't be a vector, but in my mind, they will be multiple orders of magnitude less effective than humans.
 
Disease transmission between species is actually quite rare. It happened ONCE to initiate this pandemic.
 
GreyGhost said:
A chipmunk doesn't normally run from house to house touching everything and coughing on people. I'm not saying they can't be a vector, but in my mind, they will be multiple orders of magnitude less effective than humans.
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Hantavirus comes to mind but the fix is pretty much established. Evacuate and fumigate.

IMO a person living in a remote location and being a mild survivalist is less susceptible to COVID. Unlike a lot of urbanites they buy in quantity rather than drive to the mall every day for things that could be easily stored....less exposure. Keep in mind that a lot of urbanites live in small apartments and have no room for spare toilet paper, bottled water, beans and rice.

The danger in the rural lifestyle is that while they may be low risk for COVID they are still susceptible to cancer, heart disease, diabetes, broken bones and a host of other conditions that make them dependent on the same health care system that treats the COVID cases. When the system is plugged and someone needs a respirator that is already in use they are out of luck, regardless of self sufficiency.
 
LePhillou said:
View attachment 42178

enjoy
www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Update (Live): 25,142,321 Cases and 845,578 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
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Italy isn't looking good at the moment. I haven't done any analysis of factors.

Did the Italians go around hugging and kissing each other?

How crowded is Italy compared to the USA or Canada, not that one can compare Rome, New York City or Toronto to the wilds of Montana?

Switzerland and Norway surprise me but is there a factor based on recent immigration?
 
nobbie48 said:
Italy isn't looking good at the moment. I haven't done any analysis of factors.

Did the Italians go around hugging and kissing each other?

How crowded is Italy compared to the USA or Canada, not that one can compare Rome, New York City or Toronto to the wilds of Montana?

Switzerland and Norway surprise me but is there a factor based on recent immigration?
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You literally greet with a hug and kisses on the cheeks.

(the same as in Quebec actually...) and they also didnt care at first brushing it off as a flu.
 
LePhillou said:
View attachment 42178

enjoy
www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Update (Live): 25,142,321 Cases and 845,578 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
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I’ve been checking that site daily for the past week or so. A couple things I’ve found interesting, that in the active cases the precentage of serious or critical cases has been consistently going down, 10% earlier in the week down to 7% now. I’m just curious if the doctors are getting better at treating it? Could also be a fluke over the past couple days and mean nothing.

My other take away is just how bad Italy has handled this. Their numbers seem way out of whack comparatively.
 
blackcamaro said:
I’ve been checking that site daily for the past week or so. A couple things I’ve found interesting that in the active cases the precentage of serious or critical cases has been consistently going down, 10% earlier in the week down to 7% now. I’m just curious if the doctors are getting better at treating it? Could also be a fluke over the past couple days and mean nothing.

My other take away is just how bad Italy has handled this. Their numbers seem way out of whack comparatively.
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Wait for the real numbers from the USA if they start testing expect 100000 cases immediately.

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nobbie48 said:
Italy isn't looking good at the moment. I haven't done any analysis of factors.

Did the Italians go around hugging and kissing each other?
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Traditionally - yes. (Spanish, too.) Maybe not so much now.

nobbie48 said:
How crowded is Italy compared to the USA or Canada, not that one can compare Rome, New York City or Toronto to the wilds of Montana?
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Italy has 60 million people and the size of it is like southern Ontario and southern Quebec put together. In that, are a lot of rural areas and a lot of mountainous areas. The cities are dense. Milan was one of the early coronavirus hot-spots. Population 1.3 million. Lots and lots of people live in apartment buildings. But you can say the same thing about Toronto.

nobbie48 said:
Switzerland and Norway surprise me but is there a factor based on recent immigration?
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High number of cases but few deaths suggest intensive testing. Switzerland is right next door to northern Italy.
 
Scuba Steve said:
Wait for the real numbers from the USA if they start testing expect 100000 cases immediately.

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I don’t doubt that the numbers are higher for all the countries....where did you pull that number from though? Complete guess or got something to go off of?
 
GreyGhost said:
A chipmunk doesn't normally run from house to house touching everything and coughing on people. I'm not saying they can't be a vector, but in my mind, they will be multiple orders of magnitude less effective than humans.
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The chef does not like the smell of the chicken they bought in our last port, do you want to watch the kids feed it to the birds off the back of the ship or go into town and feed the pigeons in the market place?
 
95 new deaths in Spain.

Germany to close some of it borders with France, Switzerland and Austria.
 
blackcamaro said:
I don’t doubt that the numbers are higher for all the countries....where did you pull that number from though? Complete guess or got something to go off of?
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Guess based on deaths and number of cases they are exporting you don't have that low a case load and a huge #of people leaving the country infected.

Sent from my moto g(7) plus using Tapatalk
 
blackcamaro said:
I’ve been checking that site daily for the past week or so. A couple things I’ve found interesting, that in the active cases the precentage of serious or critical cases has been consistently going down, 10% earlier in the week down to 7% now. I’m just curious if the doctors are getting better at treating it? Could also be a fluke over the past couple days and mean nothing.

My other take away is just how bad Italy has handled this. Their numbers seem way out of whack comparatively.
Click to expand...

As your testing gets better you start discovering more of the mild cases that otherwise wouldn't have attracted any attention. I would consider the decline in serious/critical and decline in death rates to be promising.

Italy was blindsided by this. The case numbers started ramping up early. They didn't have the benefit of experience and observation to work with. Add that to the crowded conditions in Italian cities, and Italian traditions of hugs and kisses to greet anyone (been that way for centuries), and traditional Italian tendency to flout rules ... and this is what happens. The rest of the world - particularly us - has the benefit of seeing what happened in Italy.

It can be said that Spain bungled this. Very similar social environment, very similar population densities etc to Italy. I can understand the motivation to resist lockdown ... a big part of their economy is dependent on tourism $$$. So they tried to contain it regionally - like Italy did for one day before realizing that they had to shut down the whole country. If there is a sign of promise in Spain, it's that the lockdown doesn't officially go into effect until 8:00 AM GMT+1 Monday, but it appears that people have voluntarily started it as of yesterday. (That actually works - let's try out this isolation thing, Oops just realized that we don't have enough of something but that's ok, run out to the shop and stock up before everything closes)

Only history will be able to judge how well or how badly Canada and the USA have handled this. It is certain that both countries have many, many more cases than are in the official records. With the way this thing has been going, it won't be long before we find out.
 
Ontario has a major shortage of test kits and will no longer test people who have been traveling and have symptoms just going to assume they have it.

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Here is why a lockdown may need to happen. Its not because "we are locking the barn after the horse ran away" , its because the average Joe canadian may be pretty stupid.

Yesterday at Oakville hospital , sign on the door ' ONE visitor per patient per room' , in a room with a mom/new born , 4 visitors. Conversation was 3 of you have to go. Now. Grandpa argues "its my first gandchild!!" , nurse says , sorry pack up now, please say your good byes and vacate. Grandma argues, "we will wait in the hall and only come in one at a time" , nurse says "Please leave now, just because your healthy as you stand here doesnt mean your ok to be here"
This is the level of stupid that makes these types of virus really hard to contain, especially for the vulnerable.
 
Many people are in denial that “it won’t get that bad here”, or “I won’t get it as I’m only hanging out with friends”.

They don’t accept or understand the risk they are taking.

If/when the $hit hits the fan...it’s too late.


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