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Coronavirus

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bigpoppa said:
According to the numbers I read, out of 100 tested, only 5 are coming back positive:

https://imgur.com/s7ad9HY

From public health:
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That's a good chart. My biggest concern is those numbers can be drastically altered by the government deciding who gets tested and when. If you want lower percentage infected, you pick a theoretically healthy part of the population to dilute with negatives (lets say grocery store workers or public transit staff if you want it to appear like a good political decision). If you want lower mortality, you test younger people that are likely infected (say hospital staff). If you want high mortality, you test long-term care homes. You can get order of magnitude changes in the rates just by selecting your test subjects.
 
GreyGhost said:
That's a good chart. My biggest concern is those numbers can be drastically altered by the government deciding who gets tested and when. If you want lower percentage infected, you pick a theoretically healthy part of the population to dilute with negatives (lets say grocery store workers or public transit staff if you want it to appear like a good political decision). If you want lower mortality, you test younger people that are likely infected (say hospital staff). If you want high mortality, you test long-term care homes. You can get order of magnitude changes in the rates just by selecting your test subjects.
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They're already doing that. Ontario doesn't have enough testing capacity to test everyone so they're reserving for.....I actually have no clue.
 
The total number infected is under-reported in ALL countries, the only question is by how much. The number of cases has overwhelmed the ability to test for them, and that has happened everywhere.

To estimate "how bad", you have to go by the number of deaths (recognising that even this is under-reported and open to criticism in co-morbidity situations - but this situation exists everywhere as well). The lag period makes this difficult, but basically when the deaths are on the way down, the number of cases already started going down weeks ago.

Countries with 20,000 reported deaths (and many more unreported) - if the actual mortality rate is 1% that means 2 million people are infected. And that really only counts people who had symptoms. No one knows how many people were infected and fought it off without getting any symptoms, except that it's a lot.
 
GreyGhost said:
On the current house the mortgage broker pushed hard for a mortgage larger than we needed. I gave up on arguing, pulled the larger mortgage and paid off 10% the first payment. He got a bigger commission, it didnt cost me much and it makes larger pre-payments possible if it seems like a good idea in the future.
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Similar boat. I actually missed out on an amazing rate, lower than the one i had 5 years ago, by 1 week. It went up 30 points in one week. And it's gone way higher since.
Wife already was part of previous cuts to healthcare last year and she's self-employed now so it's all my income! We've been in touch (broker and I) since January and rates were gonna be 40 points higher than my current mortgage. Then it was going to be 20 lower. And now im at 25 higher.
It's a wild ride! At least i'm still working from home full time.
Only reason this is happening is because we have other debt that i was planning on paying off within this year's time (considering self employed income from the wife in the calculation) but after calculating the weighted interest average, refinancing is going to end up cheaper, and i'll be able to double up payments with that consolidation.
Gives us breathing room while this whole situation happens/blows over, in case any emergency pops up (like they always like to do)
 
LePhillou said:
Similar boat. I actually missed out on an amazing rate, lower than the one i had 5 years ago, by 1 week. It went up 30 points in one week. And it's gone way higher since.
Wife already was part of previous cuts to healthcare last year and she's self-employed now so it's all my income! We've been in touch (broker and I) since January and rates were gonna be 40 points higher than my current mortgage. Then it was going to be 20 lower. And now im at 25 higher.
It's a wild ride! At least i'm still working from home full time.
Only reason this is happening is because we have other debt that i was planning on paying off within this year's time (considering self employed income from the wife in the calculation) but after calculating the weighted interest average, refinancing is going to end up cheaper, and i'll be able to double up payments with that consolidation.
Gives us breathing room while this whole situation happens/blows over, in case any emergency pops up (like they always like to do)
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My broker got us a crap rate. Similar to other stories, it was "no problem, don't worry about it" until just before closing and then, here's your rate. Bastard, no time to shop for better rate.

One year in (Feb 2020), bank calls and offers a fixed rate 0.75% below my variable rate if I locked in for four years. How can I lose with that? What's the catch? I expected 0.25% drops over time. Talked to a number of smart people, they were all on the same page. Within 30 days of signing, the BoC dropped the rate by 1.5%. Frig me. Oh well.
 
Watching a little bit of CNN lately. (Very little) My biggest fear right now is that Trump will want the borders opened to further attempt financial recovery, and Trudeau will let him. A huge wave of infection could come from down south.
 
Wingboy said:
Watching a little bit of CNN lately. (Very little) My biggest fear right now is that Trump will want the borders opened to further attempt financial recovery, and Trudeau will let him. A huge wave of infection could come from down south.
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If JT caves (quite possible, he's an idiot as cemented by his recent publicity photos at the cottage in QC), can Douggie do anything? Obviously Doug can't control the border, but what if the roads on this side of the border were closed for construction?
 
Only way we could get a mortgage on our house when we first bought was if we went with a fixed rate and I think back then it was around 3.19%.

When 5yr renewal came up we changed lenders, switched to a variable rate and immediately our payments dropped by around $500/month!! The rates slowly went back up several months ago by about $200/month, but now due to Covid have dropped again to where they were at when we renewed. I think I'm the last month alone the amount has dropped by $250 which is nice.
 
Wingboy said:
Watching a little bit of CNN lately. (Very little) My biggest fear right now is that Trump will want the borders opened to further attempt financial recovery, and Trudeau will let him. A huge wave of infection could come from down south.
Click to expand...

I don't think that will happen. JT (and the people around him) have shown that they know how to handle Trump (more or less - there's only so much that can be done). They are certainly aware of the big infection problem in the USA (Detroit is a hot spot, New York State is a hot spot, and a huge percentage of Canada-US trade comes across either through Michigan or New York), and they are certainly aware that Trump wants to prematurely open the US economy. I am pretty sure that they will have a plan of some sort for how to tactfully handle this.

It's practically a certainty that the US will attempt to go back to work while there is still undocumented community transmission of this virus, leading to a mid-summer second wave. Our challenge is to keep that out.

I would not be opposed to screening all people crossing an international border in either direction for fever. It's probably impractical to detect the asymptomatic people, but people demonstrably sick with a fever can be flagged. Doesn't matter driving across or flying.
 
shanekingsley said:
Only way we could get a mortgage on our house when we first bought was if we went with a fixed rate and I think back then it was around 3.19%.

When 5yr renewal came up we changed lenders, switched to a variable rate and immediately our payments dropped by around $500/month!! The rates slowly went back up several months ago by about $200/month, but now due to Covid have dropped again to where they were at when we renewed. I think I'm the last month alone the amount has dropped by $250 which is nice.
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If possible play the variable rate mortgage, fixed rate pricing game, your principal will plummet. Ie fixed rate payment was 2000 and you were making that work, keep paying the 2000 and you are knocking 250 to 500 a month in additional principal off every month. I pick that number as a nice round number to make math easy. Eg if your fixed payment was 1987.42, I just make it 2000.

Now there is a decent argument for not paying your mortgage faster than required. Especially when looking at a huge upside to equities. I just hate seeing how much money is evaporating as mortgage interest.
 
GreyGhost said:
If JT caves (quite possible, he's an idiot as cemented by his recent publicity photos at the cottage in QC), can Douggie do anything? Obviously Doug can't control the border, but what if the roads on this side of the border were closed for construction?
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He's at home with his wife at that cottage now. The media spun that totally wrong....also Scheer got on a plane with his entire family and crowded out an aircraft with reporters etc. Not as reported.
 
Brian P said:
I don't think that will happen. JT (and the people around him) have shown that they know how to handle Trump (more or less - there's only so much that can be done). They are certainly aware of the big infection problem in the USA (Detroit is a hot spot, New York State is a hot spot, and a huge percentage of Canada-US trade comes across either through Michigan or New York), and they are certainly aware that Trump wants to prematurely open the US economy. I am pretty sure that they will have a plan of some sort for how to tactfully handle this.

It's practically a certainty that the US will attempt to go back to work while there is still undocumented community transmission of this virus, leading to a mid-summer second wave. Our challenge is to keep that out.

I would not be opposed to screening all people crossing an international border in either direction for fever. It's probably impractical to detect the asymptomatic people, but people demonstrably sick with a fever can be flagged. Doesn't matter driving across or flying.
Click to expand...

Trump can’t do anything without the governors and that’s now pretty clear. Depends on how they handle it.
 
jc100 said:
He's at home with his wife at that cottage now. The media spun that totally wrong....also Scheer got on a plane with his entire family and crowded out an aircraft with reporters etc. Not as reported.
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Both idiots. Straight up dont go to the cottage message. Clearly ok to go "home" to your cottage with your family now for the entire GTA. They had a 4500 sq ft primary residence. They should have stayed in it like they are telling everybody else to do. No excuse at all for the insanity of going to the cottage. Entirely embarrassing that he used it as a photoshoot. Come to think of it, any time JT thinks something is a good picture, he needs to be punched. What photo op has their been than wasnt a scandal?

And yes, scheer is also an idiot. He is not the idiot in charge and creating the rules and messages the country is expected to follow.
 
GreyGhost said:
Both idiots. Straight up dont go to the cottage message. Clearly ok to go "home" to your cottage with your family now for the entire GTA. They had a 4500 sq ft primary residence. They should have stayed in it like they are telling everybody else to do. No excuse at all for the insanity of going to the cottage. Entirely embarrassing that he used it as a photoshoot. Come to think of it, any time JT thinks something is a good picture, he needs to be punched. What photo op has their been than wasnt a scandal?

And yes, scheer is also an idiot. He is not the idiot in charge and creating the rules and messages the country is expected to follow.
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Well his wife was either going to go with the kids to the place in Ottawa or the other way round since quarantine/isolation for them was over. Either way it’s a non story. Scheer's actions were way worse in a societal faux pas regard.
 
jc100 said:
Well his wife was either going to go with the kids to the place in Ottawa or the other way round since quarantine/isolation for them was over. Either way it’s a non story. Scheer's actions were way worse in a societal faux pas regard.
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It's not a non-story at all. The message is straight up dont go to the cottage. There is no room in the message for unless it isnt that far away and your wife already went there with the kids against our strongly worded advice. Yes. Scheers move was worse for potential infection. JT's was a million times worse for the message. Both of them are ******** that believe they are better than a normal man.
 
easy to play monday morning quarterback but damn:

 
JT just showing the people his typical contempt and how 2 faced he really is.
 
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