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Are house prices going to come down?
- Thread starter rashidme
- Start date
OpenGambit
Banned
Without breaking it down by location, that is essentially completely useless information.
johnp
Well-known member
^ Canada is a location. It's useful if you want a 30,000 foot view of countries.
Some stats are also available by city, (and again you could argue that's not broken down by neighbourhood, and then not by street.)
You can be pretty sure that Windsor prices are below average and probably Vancouver and Toronto are above average, if that's what you are looking for.
But if you're looking to buy a house in Tillsonburg on a half acre lot, no it's not going to help you.
Some stats are also available by city, (and again you could argue that's not broken down by neighbourhood, and then not by street.)
You can be pretty sure that Windsor prices are below average and probably Vancouver and Toronto are above average, if that's what you are looking for.
But if you're looking to buy a house in Tillsonburg on a half acre lot, no it's not going to help you.
OpenGambit
Banned
You can pretend you know what I would say, but you don't. It still doesn't change the fact that you posted something that is worthless.
Didnt gold and silver value drop and the american dollar strengthen in 2008/9?
When the world economy went in the dumpster they bought american dollars, not gold.
As long as interest rates stay flat the HOUSE prices will stay pretty flat. They are about as high as they can go without the monthly cost exceeding what the buyers can handle. We would need to see a pretty big jump in rates (my guess somewhere in the 6% to 8% variable rate--not the posted but what people are paying/negotiated) before there is a bubble like collapse. Unless of course the economy does blow up (>25% unemployment), but it does not look like that will happen.
For houses there are very little new houses being built in the desirable areas (not far off 905). So I do not see natural supply and demand as an issue (demand will be higher than supply for the foreseeable future, unless of course rates or unemployment REALLY jumps). It all comes down to can the current owners keep paying, as long as they can there will not be a flood of houses on the market. Demand will stay high.
Condos on the other hand may actually have a supply and demand correction. At the rate they are building them there is a pretty good chance they will outstrip demand (but people have been saying this for a decade). In these cases the further you are from downtown TO the bigger the percentage hit you will likely take, with a few exceptions. Also any (and there are lots) of the poorly built and/or run buildings regardless of location will take a big hit.
Silver, gold, blah blah blah does not really matter, if people can continue to pay demand will remain higher than supply and the market will stay flat. I do not see any big increases either, since the current ability to pay is based on the low rates.
I own and I am taking no other actions (not selling or buying more). If I was still renting I would likely continue to do so until I felt a non-financial reason to buy. I would not be rushing into the market thinking that the prices are going anywhere.
For houses there are very little new houses being built in the desirable areas (not far off 905). So I do not see natural supply and demand as an issue (demand will be higher than supply for the foreseeable future, unless of course rates or unemployment REALLY jumps). It all comes down to can the current owners keep paying, as long as they can there will not be a flood of houses on the market. Demand will stay high.
Condos on the other hand may actually have a supply and demand correction. At the rate they are building them there is a pretty good chance they will outstrip demand (but people have been saying this for a decade). In these cases the further you are from downtown TO the bigger the percentage hit you will likely take, with a few exceptions. Also any (and there are lots) of the poorly built and/or run buildings regardless of location will take a big hit.
Silver, gold, blah blah blah does not really matter, if people can continue to pay demand will remain higher than supply and the market will stay flat. I do not see any big increases either, since the current ability to pay is based on the low rates.
I own and I am taking no other actions (not selling or buying more). If I was still renting I would likely continue to do so until I felt a non-financial reason to buy. I would not be rushing into the market thinking that the prices are going anywhere.
What do you think happens when they keep printing US dollars? Quantitative easing is the printing of money to boost the economy. You cannot keep printing money without devaluing it but the US has no choice. They are screwed.
It's like you just pulled all of this from your a*s. What did you base all of these clearly researched opinions on?
Again, in 2008/9 when the usa announced quanitative easing they printed alot of money.....gold and silver values dropped. People buy the usa currency in a time of crisis.
It would actually benefit them to have a weaker dollar for exports and job creation.
If they are screwed Canada wont be far behind......canada lost 16000 manufacturing jobs in November!
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They won't when the US dollar has no value. Why would you buy garbage? It doesn't matter what "did" happen. They are still trying to recover from the 2008 crisis and there is no way to do so. They print money to hold off a crash but if they continue to print money the value of their dollar will be on par with Zimbabwe's. They will lose their reserve status. Their credit rating will continue to plummet. Hyperinflation could be a reality. And yes, Canada will feel the effects. Greed has ruined their economy. They thought they were "to big to fail".
It does matter because it contadicts your theory
So? I don't give a sh*t if it contradicts what I have stated. Makes no difference.
Is this how you have discussions?
The exact opposite of what you stated happened in 2008, and the best you can do is "So" ?
Well done.
(BTW, many other countries are printing money.....just a heads up
Is this how you have discussions?
The exact opposite of what you stated happened in 2008, and the best you can do is "So" ?
Well done.
(BTW, many other countries are printing money.....just a heads up
When someone presents a stupid argument ie; "it happened before so it will happen again" then yes I respond accordingly. This isn't a discussion. You have made the weakest most futile attempt to discuss this and I honestly don't even know why I bothered responding.
And further, the US just isn't printing money, it is printing sh*t loads of money! To the detriment of their economy.
The reason gold/silver etc dropped in 2008 is that EVERYTHING dropped. Investors who were in a margin position (investing money that was borrowed - called "leverage") found themselves in a margin-call situation (in which the value of their investments no longer adequately covers their margin loan) resulting in forced, indiscriminate selling of EVERYthing. And there were PLENTY of investors living on borrowed money back then.
The same thing can happen again but it's only in the event of an abrupt, massive market correction comparable to what was seen in 2008. The market is not as over-valued as it was leading up to the 2008 crash ... lots of people left the stock market and never came back. Now they're invested in fixed income securities ... the value of which will plunge if either interest rates go up or if the currency drops in value (inflation), both of which are entirely foreseeable. It remains to be seen how the USA will deal with their "fiscal cliff" situation but you can bet your bottom dollar that the fix (whatever it is) is only going to come one minute before midnight on the deadline (end of this year), or one minute after ...
As for house prices, my view is that there is enough demand to prevent a big drop but current prices in the Toronto area are on the limit of affordability, so in general the prices are going nowhere. (A few percent fluctuation here and there - randomly.)
The same thing can happen again but it's only in the event of an abrupt, massive market correction comparable to what was seen in 2008. The market is not as over-valued as it was leading up to the 2008 crash ... lots of people left the stock market and never came back. Now they're invested in fixed income securities ... the value of which will plunge if either interest rates go up or if the currency drops in value (inflation), both of which are entirely foreseeable. It remains to be seen how the USA will deal with their "fiscal cliff" situation but you can bet your bottom dollar that the fix (whatever it is) is only going to come one minute before midnight on the deadline (end of this year), or one minute after ...
As for house prices, my view is that there is enough demand to prevent a big drop but current prices in the Toronto area are on the limit of affordability, so in general the prices are going nowhere. (A few percent fluctuation here and there - randomly.)
^
My business prof said something very similar but also concluded that buying a house right now is a piss poor idea because there is a huge chance houses will drop 10-30% soon. I forgot his reasoning...and for that I will probably **** up my exam on Wednesday =(
My business prof said something very similar but also concluded that buying a house right now is a piss poor idea because there is a huge chance houses will drop 10-30% soon. I forgot his reasoning...and for that I will probably **** up my exam on Wednesday =(
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