Are house prices going to come down? | Page 3 | GTAMotorcycle.com

Are house prices going to come down?

Last edited:
D23 said:
It used to be just the bitter 65+ year old "I'm old but I never worked toward a pension so gimme one for free so I can complain about it" types. Now it's every ****ing failure in the country from 16-60 it seems.
Click to expand...

Lol - nicely put.
 
magnus said:
The GTA housing market is being influenced by some very unique circumstances which will likely prop the market up for another 10+ years, unless we suffer a complete economic collapse, which is certainly a possibility.

a few years back immigration laws changed in Canada so that very few immigrants without significant finances gain access. Asians, Indians and eastern europeans with very deep pockets are buying up every bit of single family dwelling stock available and often more than one home as they buy for children as well. Last year 112,000 new immigrants entered the GTA and only 12,000 new homes were built and a great many of these new immigrants are looking to buy.

As for existing single family dwellings, there is very, very little stock left and no room to build more in the inner GTA area. New home speculation is rampant in Milton and Oakville and some folks are making some nice $$$ off the current real estate anomoly caused by the immigration situation. Within Toronto itself, many economists are predicting single family home (not so much for condos) prices will rise 50% over the next 7-10 years.

There is, of course, a chance the market will dump, however, I would not count on it if I were looking for a home to buy for my family. If it were me, I would buy sooner rather than later.
Click to expand...

My folks are have their 1100 sq. ft. condo in the distillery district up for sale since Sept. Asking price is lower than for previous equivalent sales and no one has shown the slightest interest. How does that square with your scenario?

Bottom line as far as I'm concerned is, there's a slight chance that prices will rise at 5% over the next for years, and there's an approximately equal slim chance that prices will drop 20% in the next few years, overall in Toronto. The most probable scenario is that prices remain pretty flat. So why buy now unless you can't get what you need from a rental?
 
Paul1000RR said:
And what safeguards are these? Like someone already mentioned people in this country are in so much debt its not even funny.

Common sense 101, if average income is 46K a year - taxes - car payment - living expenses then how can people afford 600,000+ houses?
Click to expand...

Common sense - the average income earner includes renters.
 
Paul1000RR said:
Rich immigrant families?
Last i heard people were complaining that they could no longer get a mortgage since the new rules came into effect, now all of the sudden they have the cash to buy everything in sight? something smells fishy here
Click to expand...

Which people, immigrants? Are you comparing another mixed bag of demographics again here?
 
House prices going down?

uhhhh, yeah, sure, didnt you get the memo?...... so is price of gas, food, electricity, clothes, cars, insurance, taxes and funerals!

edit : forgot to add the :laughing3:
 
Last edited:
magnus said:
The GTA housing market is being influenced by some very unique circumstances which will likely prop the market up for another 10+ years, unless we suffer a complete economic collapse, which is certainly a possibility.

a few years back immigration laws changed in Canada so that very few immigrants without significant finances gain access. Asians, Indians and eastern europeans with very deep pockets are buying up every bit of single family dwelling stock available and often more than one home as they buy for children as well. Last year 112,000 new immigrants entered the GTA and only 12,000 new homes were built and a great many of these new immigrants are looking to buy.

As for existing single family dwellings, there is very, very little stock left and no room to build more in the inner GTA area. New home speculation is rampant in Milton and Oakville and some folks are making some nice $$$ off the current real estate anomoly caused by the immigration situation. Within Toronto itself, many economists are predicting single family home (not so much for condos) prices will rise 50% over the next 7-10 years.

There is, of course, a chance the market will dump, however, I would not count on it if I were looking for a home to buy for my family. If it were me, I would buy sooner rather than later.
Click to expand...

So this time it's different?!?!
 
Thanks to rising prices my wife and I made a lot of money selling our townhouse condo earlier this year. We decided to get in on buying a house ASAP, because I wasn't sure if we would eventually get priced completely out of the area we wanted to live in. Interest rates were also a huge factor for wanting to buy NOW and locking in, seeing as they could creep back up in the future. Now I'm no real estate expert, but won't interest rates affect affordability just as much as overall purchase price?
 
Last edited:
short stop said:
Thanks for rising prices my wife and I made a lot of money selling our townhouse condo earlier this year. We decided to get in on buying a house ASAP, because I wasn't sure if we would eventually get priced completely out of the area we wanted to live in. Interest rates were also a huge factor for wanting to buy NOW and locking in, seeing as they could creep back up in the future. Now I'm no real estate expert, but won't interest rates affect affordability just as much as overall purchase price?
Click to expand...

Definitely, since interest rates affect your payment amount. Very generally speaking, a rise in interest rates will cause a lowering of prices.
 
I got two houses on my street sold within the first week of listing both agents claiming 100% asking price. These houses were going for 300K in 10 years ago there is no more space left in Mississauga to build houses I know Missisauga had to get land from milton. If you look at Toronto Builders are buying houses to put up condos. I asked Tridel condo price for a penthouse was going for 400K less then 1000 sq foot. If you buy a condo by lakeshore some places don't give you a parking space you would have to rent parking for $400 a month.
 
According to the local paper where I live, our real estate values have increasd 9.5% in the past year. I expect my taxes to follow shortly.
 
Mississauga is ridiculously overpriced...it used to be nice to live in but now its starting to get pretty crowded.

I'm renting a condo for now, its a big enough space and I have two parking spaces for 2 cars/2 bikes and a storage unit. Hydro bill is next to nothing since I don't pay for HVAC/hot water or maintenance fees. It'd be nice to get a house close to Sauga/Oakville, but I'm not even going to entertain the thought until I have at least 100k in house savings alone (separate from investment and backup savings).

Everyone kept saying to check out Milton...prices have already caught up there. You'd have to go to Ancaster for a deal, and make sure to order a box of dreamcatchers..
 
Ancaster is already expensive and it has been for a while.

Certain areas in Hamilton are affordable and still nice despite the city's reputation.
 
magnus said:
The GTA housing market is being influenced by some very unique circumstances which will likely prop the market up for another 10+ years, unless we suffer a complete economic collapse, which is certainly a possibility.

a few years back immigration laws changed in Canada so that very few immigrants without significant finances gain access. Asians, Indians and eastern europeans with very deep pockets are buying up every bit of single family dwelling stock available and often more than one home as they buy for children as well. Last year 112,000 new immigrants entered the GTA and only 12,000 new homes were built and a great many of these new immigrants are looking to buy.

As for existing single family dwellings, there is very, very little stock left and no room to build more in the inner GTA area. New home speculation is rampant in Milton and Oakville and some folks are making some nice $$$ off the current real estate anomoly caused by the immigration situation. Within Toronto itself, many economists are predicting single family home (not so much for condos) prices will rise 50% over the next 7-10 years.

There is, of course, a chance the market will dump, however, I would not count on it if I were looking for a home to buy for my family. If it were me, I would buy sooner rather than later.
Click to expand...

My main income is through real estate speculation and I agree with everything you've stated. If there is a crash coming due to the turmoil in the US we will see it coming at least a year or two in advance. I just bought a luxury condo on the waterfront just north of Toronto, which I will flip once it is built and make a years income off of based on the really great market here. I meet people weekly from all over the world looking to buy property in the GTA for investment purposes. People move here from around the world for the great economy we have. Iceland wants to make the Canadian Dollar it's fiat currency. There is a lot of stability here in Canada.
Townhouses are a really great investment right now as they are in very short supply and condos have flooded the market. Just buy smart in an area that is good for resale and don't buy a property in a complex or building where everyone is buying just to sell once it is built. You will have too much competition and unless you have the best unit moving it will take time.
Another great investment is physical silver and gold. Both will go up once the US stops quantitative easing because they have destroyed their dollar and need to return to the silver gold standard. Physical metal is great as a retirement plan as there is no record of capital gains. You still pay tax on RRSP's when you take them out.
Just my two cents from the perspective of a person who invests regularly in commercial real estate in the GTA. Due diligence is everything when it comes to real estate investing.
 
A couple of entertaining lines ....

1) There is, of course, a chance the market will dump, however, I would not count on it if I were looking for a home to buy for my family.

2) People move here from around the world for the great economy we have. (Absolutely the largest myth I have ever heard of. I have done it myself and know many people who have and for none of us economy was even on the radar ...... there's many other things which play to be much heavier factors)
 
I didn't think people were moving here for the economy rather they are investing in a hot property market in BC (Van) and the GTA (To)
 
From Economist Aug 18th 2012 piece

http://www.economist.com/node/21560599

Canadian real estate is among the most overvalued.

77% overvalued against rents
32% overvalued against income, and
54% overvalued overall.

Eventually it catches up, but nobody knows when.
But it tells you to not be spec buying at least.
And I'd bet condos will be whacked the hardest.

Wonk alert. Wonk alert.

Below interactive chart is neat as it lets you compare prices in different ways across countries.
Checkout the drop down menus. Due for an update soon I think.

Daily chart
Location, location, location

Aug 15th 2012, 11:31 by The Economist online

"Our interactive overview of global house prices and rents"

http://www.economist.com/node/21540328
 
It depends on location. In Oakville near the new hospital prices for single detached homes are still climbing. However in other areas, prices are flat. Also in the winter months you are less likely to get top dollar then you would in the spring. A price correction is a real possibility in the near future.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom