COVID and the housing market

[Deleted member 50930]

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The Fed announces plans to sell off its corporate bond holdings. (Published 2021)

The Fed bought corporate bonds as part of an emergency maneuver last year. It will begin to sell those holdings, it announced Wednesday.

www.nytimes.com

Hmm, crash is imminent?

 

[油井緋色]

The Fed announces plans to sell off its corporate bond holdings. (Published 2021)

The Fed bought corporate bonds as part of an emergency maneuver last year. It will begin to sell those holdings, it announced Wednesday.

www.nytimes.com

Hmm, crash is imminent?

Doubt it. I was seeing crash signs for 5~ years. The only real "crash" was when I bought last year where prices stagnated for a bit. I read many "expert opinions" during those 5 years.

 

[油井緋色]

That's the type of thinking that actually gives the confidence to go full ape mode in flipping houses as well, there's no way the govt will let it bust right? too much at stake?

Cheapest

Property Prices in Toronto. Price per square feets/square meters in Toronto

www.numbeo.com

Property Prices in Tokyo. Price per square feets/square meters in Tokyo

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Middle

Property Prices in New York, NY. Price per square feets/square meters in New York

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What the ****

Property Prices in Hong Kong. Price per square feets/square meters in Hong Kong

www.numbeo.com

If they haven't busted, how will we bust? lol

 

[GreyGhost]

If they haven't busted, how will we bust? lol

For a start, they aren't running a huge percentage of their economy on housing. I don't know if that makes things better or worse in the short-term. In the long-term, our way is bad. We are just churning money within the country, we need to ship products or ideas out of the country to survive long-term.

 

[killvino]

Doubt it. I was seeing crash signs for 5~ years. The only real "crash" was when I bought last year where prices stagnated for a bit. I read many "expert opinions" during those 5 years.

IIRC there was a minor housing crash/cooling in ~2017, prices did dip.

 

[油井緋色]

IIRC there was a minor housing crash/cooling in ~2017, prices did dip.

Was it enough to help someone/a family that makes $70k a year afford a place in Toronto? lol

Serious question as that's the median income.

 

[GreyGhost]

IIRC there was a minor housing crash/cooling in ~2017, prices did dip.

When foreign buyers tax came in, prices "dropped" but only theoretically. Prior to march 2017, prices spiked as people tried to beat the deadline. After march 2017 they returned to prices ~six months before. If a correction only corrects out a few months of fake appreciation, I don't consider it real. I like to think of corrections in terms of years of regression as opposed to percentages as I believe that is more reflective of reality (and the pain that owners may feel). The correction in the 80's had some people underwater for a decade. Recent corrections have been months of fake gains disappear (which hurts people that bought in those months and immediately need to sell but that is a very small percentage of owners). If you start getting regression of five years or more, you probably have a decent percentage of homeowners but they have been paying down principal so they are mostly still above water.

 

[killvino]

Was it enough to help someone/a family that makes $70k a year afford a place in Toronto? lol

Serious question as that's the median income.

I was wrong, 2018 was the low.

Google says: Meanwhile, the average selling price for all property types in the Greater Toronto Area fell by 4.3 per cent to $787,300
Not sure whether that is affordable or not on $70k but affordability would also depend on the rates at the time.

When foreign buyers tax came in, prices "dropped" but only theoretically. Prior to march 2017, prices spiked as people tried to beat the deadline. After march 2017 they returned to prices ~six months before. If a correction only corrects out a few months of fake appreciation, I don't consider it real. I like to think of corrections in terms of years of regression as opposed to percentages as I believe that is more reflective of reality (and the pain that owners may feel). The correction in the 80's had some people underwater for a decade. Recent corrections have been months of fake gains disappear (which hurts people that bought in those months and immediately need to sell but that is a very small percentage of owners). If you start getting regression of five years or more, you probably have a decent percentage of homeowners but they have been paying down principal so they are mostly still above water.

Do you have stats on this? I can't seem to find any but based on memory the pricing was rising exponentially every year similar to now and the dip after the foreign buyers tax was undid more than one year of gains.

 

[油井緋色]

I was wrong, 2018 was the low.

Google says: Meanwhile, the average selling price for all property types in the Greater Toronto Area fell by 4.3 per cent to $787,300
Not sure whether that is affordable or not on $70k but affordability would also depend on the rates at the time.



Do you have stats on this? I can't seem to find any but based on memory the pricing was rising exponentially every year similar to now and the dip after the foreign buyers tax was undid more than one year of gains.

Thanks for the response. I still think most ppl are screwed unless there's a drastic crash.

For reference: my parents paid $650k interest included over 25 years with an income of $80k combined. They had two children.

If I project my total payment out in 25 years (actual will be less than that, because **** giving banks interest money), it'll be over $1,000,000. This is where I pulled the $150k family income from and why I think the system is horribly ****** lol

EDIT: Should clarify this for @george__; the system is ****** for the average person because the average person is an obese loser that that makes less than $40k a year and uses more money than they have (statistically speaking.) While it's fine to feel empathy for the average person, it's a horrible idea to absorb their despair and lack of performance if you're naturally above average...and you damn well are from our conversations. Don't absorb the mass media panic ********.

 

[GreyGhost]

Do you have stats on this? I can't seem to find any but based on memory the pricing was rising exponentially every year similar to now and the dip after the foreign buyers tax was undid more than one year of gains.

They exist. I was lazy and doing it from memory. Roughly tracking the probable sale price of our house at the time. Even if a year is a more accurate magnitude, that is still almost inconsequential.

In approximately 2005, house prices were roughly five times income and people were panicking that a crash was coming as that was the historical trigger. To meaningfully correct house prices to income and allow a median wage to afford a house, a reset to pre 2005 would be required (imo, need to include inflation in the numbers too). That would decimate many homeowners and quite likely further concentrate wealth as many of the truly wealthy have a very low percentage of net worth in housing and the middle class has most of their net worth there.

 

[blackcamaro]

I was wrong, 2018 was the low.

Google says: Meanwhile, the average selling price for all property types in the Greater Toronto Area fell by 4.3 per cent to $787,300
Not sure whether that is affordable or not on $70k but affordability would also depend on the rates at the time.



Do you have stats on this? I can't seem to find any but based on memory the pricing was rising exponentially every year similar to now and the dip after the foreign buyers tax was undid more than one year of gains.

I remember it as homes above $1,000,000 were impacted quite a bit and took a while to recover. Somewhat close to two years. At that time condos went on a tear and saw big gains from 2017 until Jan-Feb 2020. It was the foreign buyers tax and also the stress test on uninsured mortgages coming on at that same time that impacted the over $1,000,000 market.

 

[killvino]

I remember it as homes above $1,000,000 were impacted quite a bit and took a while to recover. Somewhat close to two years. At that time condos went on a tear and saw big gains from 2017 until Jan-Feb 2020. It was the foreign buyers tax and also the stress test on uninsured mortgages coming on at that same time that impacted the over $1,000,000 market.

Good point. thanks, I forgot this fact. Would explain why my reference is different from GGs.

 

[BB722]

Cheapest

Property Prices in Toronto. Price per square feets/square meters in Toronto

www.numbeo.com

Property Prices in Tokyo. Price per square feets/square meters in Tokyo

www.numbeo.com

Middle

Property Prices in New York, NY. Price per square feets/square meters in New York

www.numbeo.com

What the ****

Property Prices in Hong Kong. Price per square feets/square meters in Hong Kong

www.numbeo.com

If they haven't busted, how will we bust? lol

Exactly my point, no one can picture it happening so brrrr people keep buying and market keeps going up year after year

All those other cities can be explained with just supply and demand as well esp the Tokyo metro area being more than double our countries population, and also they have always been hot.
Toronto/Canada is new to these type of prices and has the most household debt as well which isn't a good thing

 

[nobbie48]

For a start, they aren't running a huge percentage of their economy on housing. I don't know if that makes things better or worse in the short-term. In the long-term, our way is bad. We are just churning money within the country, we need to ship products or ideas out of the country to survive long-term.

Bernie Madoff ran his Ponzi scheme for 20 plus years. We're well ahead of him.

 

[timtune]

They exist. I was lazy and doing it from memory. Roughly tracking the probable sale price of our house at the time. Even if a year is a more accurate magnitude, that is still almost inconsequential.

In approximately 2005, house prices were roughly five times income and people were panicking that a crash was coming as that was the historical trigger. To meaningfully correct house prices to income and allow a median wage to afford a house, a reset to pre 2005 would be required (imo, need to include inflation in the numbers too). That would decimate many homeowners and quite likely further concentrate wealth as many of the truly wealthy have a very low percentage of net worth in housing and the middle class has most of their net worth there.

If your plan is to use your house to fund your retirement (as I believe many think they will) you should come up with another plan.

 

[GreyGhost]

If your plan is to use your house to fund your retirement (as I believe many think they will) you should come up with another plan.

That's not our plan however due to the crazy appreciation in prices we are definitely real estate heavy with no simple way to rebalance. A reset to 2005 prices would suck but we wouldn't be underwater. Many people would be very far underwater and that's when the high investable asset people will swoop in and build empires.

 

[timtune]

That's not our plan however due to the crazy appreciation in prices we are definitely real estate heavy with no simple way to rebalance. A reset to 2005 prices would suck but we wouldn't be underwater. Many people would be very far underwater and that's when the high investable asset people will swoop in and build empires.

I think a 2 or 3% change in interest rates would put many underwater.

 

[ChrisCBR]

If your plan is to use your house to fund your retirement (as I believe many think they will) you should come up with another plan.

What % of Canadians do you think are able to fund their retirement without using their home?
What happens when the vast majority of people cant afford to retire? Canada can barely afford to take care of its aging population already.
In the past any idiot could get a career that required little to no education. Many of those jobs/careers were enough to own a home and have a family. Pensions were also more common.
There is more than enough land to go around in Canada. The current housing crisis is a result of failed government.
Too much red tape in construction.
Too low interest rates.
Far too many local and (worse) foreign speculation in our housing market.

 

[Deleted member 50930]

If your plan is to use your house to fund your retirement (as I believe many think they will) you should come up with another plan.

This is what houses have become in Canada

 

[ChrisCBR]

EDIT: Should clarify this for @george__; the system is ****** for the average person because the average person is an obese loser that that makes less than $40k a year and uses more money than they have (statistically speaking.) While it's fine to feel empathy for the average person, it's a horrible idea to absorb their despair and lack of performance if you're naturally above average...and you damn well are from our conversations. Don't absorb the mass media panic ********.

There are a ton of useless lazy losers out there with well off parents. Its not as simple as your making it out to be.
An average income should be enough to afford housing in this country. It currently isnt.

When the average person has to work two jobs to even attempt to save for a downpayment, something is very wrong. Especially when there are people who dont even live here, sitting on millions of dollars worth of empty housing.

Our birth rate is trash and our population will continue to get older. People arent having as many children because cost of living is getting out of control here. I know several couples that are delaying having kids because they are not where they need to be.

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