What happens if KTM goes bust?

I still say that my 1290R super duke is one of the best bikes ever made, full stop. I am invested in it and not planning to sell at this point. Guess I'll just have to hold out faith that KTM will either survive or will be purchased and give me at least another 5 years of parts.
 
Shaman said:
I still say that my 1290R super duke is one of the best bikes ever made, full stop. I am invested in it and not planning to sell at this point. Guess I'll just have to hold out faith that KTM will either survive or will be purchased and give me at least another 5 years of parts.
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Same for my 1290SAR. There's nothing else made that's as fun and capable.
 
Scuba Steve said:
I don't think those numbers are right I think they must be including dual sports. KTM makes up 4 out of 5 off road bikes you see normally here anyway.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
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The numbers include adv bikes so they are a bit misleading. Plus it's a report from one of those statistic aggregator companies that generate reports where the information provided is nearly useless.

I found a report from MC News Australia from 2020 that has the breakdown by manufacturer and type of off road motorcycle specifically, including by type of off road bike. It's arguably more indicative of actual market share in the off road segment, as those of us who are active consumers in it have seen.

Basically it shows Yamaha, Honda and KTM/Husqvarna being the highest volume sellers and not that far off from each other.

www.mcnews.com.au

Top Ten selling off-road motorcycles

Latest Motorcycle News, racing sport and reviews brought to you daily.
www.mcnews.com.au www.mcnews.com.au
 
xrljoel said:
The numbers include adv bikes so they are a bit misleading. Plus it's a report from one of those statistic aggregator companies that generate reports where the information provided is nearly useless.

I found a report from MC News Australia from 2020 that has the breakdown by manufacturer and type of off road motorcycle specifically, including by type of off road bike. It's arguably more indicative of actual market share in the off road segment, as those of us who are active consumers in it have seen.

Basically it shows Yamaha, Honda and KTM/Husqvarna being the highest volume sellers and not that far off from each other.

www.mcnews.com.au

Top Ten selling off-road motorcycles

Latest Motorcycle News, racing sport and reviews brought to you daily.
www.mcnews.com.au www.mcnews.com.au
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Interesting to see so many 50's and 110's st the top of the list.
 
Assuming they are not bought up... Looking at the automotive market. Some after they fail will see a small spike in used prices as aficionados of the brand buy knowing this may be the last ones they will own. This is true for current but longer tooth models as there is a parts base. A recent new model that only sold a few thousands or hundreds there is more spare parts anxiety... Longer term the price trend usually drops pretty fast. For brands with little fan support they tend to die pretty fast.

For buyout, it can go one of many ways...
-Some poorly funded dreamers that won't be able to finance it long term and it dies.
-Direct competitor, buy it and kill it, maybe keep some small parts alive.
-Parallel competitor, buy it and keep what they don't already make (BTW this could be an auto company or ??).
-Big money private equity, etc. buy it strip some of it down, turn some stuff around and sell it.
-???
 
That top ten report is 4 years old. It's a crowded market with electrics looming on the horizon. Think of the electric trials machines being offered.
Hard for any buyer to forecast a positive profit forecast for increasingly legislated ICE motorcycles.
 
Yeah it's hard to see any existing auto or bike manufacturer taking on more combustion-engine production capacity (bike or car) when there's already overcapacity in the industry and an end of viable production on the foreseeable horizon, except possibly the companies that are already somewhat intertwined with KTM (Bajaj and CFMoto). I'm still thinking those companies will pick up the pieces for pennies on the dollar so that they can continue building what they already make. Whether they continue to be sold as KTM on the world market, or get renamed, is a darn good question.

Re backmarker's options ... in order ...
- possible, but one would think the magnitude of the transaction would weed out the dreamers, and surely this would be contingent upon someone (bank) eating €3 billion in debt, which is not going to go lightly
- unlikely, given that if nobody does anything, the brand name is already dead, so no further killing would be necessary
- possible - I think this is most likely, see first paragraph - what happens to the pieces of KTM that Bajaj and CFMoto aren't involved with? split up between the two? pennies on the dollar with banks eating the debt ...
- maybe, but it's really the same as option 1
- ??? for sure!
 
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backmarkerducati said:
Assuming they are not bought up... Looking at the automotive market. Some after they fail will see a small spike in used prices as aficionados of the brand buy knowing this may be the last ones they will own. This is true for current but longer tooth models as there is a parts base. A recent new model that only sold a few thousands or hundreds there is more spare parts anxiety... Longer term the price trend usually drops pretty fast. For brands with little fan support they tend to die pretty fast.

For buyout, it can go one of many ways...
-Some poorly funded dreamers that won't be able to finance it long term and it dies.
-Direct competitor, buy it and kill it, maybe keep some small parts alive.
-Parallel competitor, buy it and keep what they don't already make (BTW this could be an auto company or ??).
-Big money private equity, etc. buy it strip some of it down, turn some stuff around and sell it.
-???
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None of the above. I see it going to liquidation.
 
Relax said:
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Just noticed on the FortNine website, they are offering OEM parts for a bunch of manufacturers. You can look up parts fiches just like they do at the dealership. Not sure how the pricing compares though, but F9 usually has the best prices. And you're shopping in CAD to boot!

Most of the parts available are for dirtbikes/offroad, particularly KTM/Husky. Also, brands like BMW and Harley not available.

 
Lightcycle said:
Just noticed on the FortNine website, they are offering OEM parts for a bunch of manufacturers. You can look up parts fiches just like they do at the dealership. Not sure how the pricing compares though, but F9 usually has the best prices. And you're shopping in CAD to boot!

Most of the parts available are for dirtbikes/offroad, particularly KTM/Husky. Also, brands like BMW and Harley not available.

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@Trackday already tried ordering through a dealer and there's no stock in KTM's Montreal warehouse. Presumably all the Canadian retailers are getting from the same place.

My post was more of a response to this: husqvarna 2023 plastic patent

I was going to order a 2024 EXC-F set, but then they were removed from their site (I assumed because of the patent/copyright).
 
Mad Mike said:
None of the above. I see it going to liquidation.
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Liquidation may be pre, during and post many items on that list. But it can also very likely be the hard stop end.

I see Saab as a "recent" automotive example. Not 100% exactly the same starting point but a possible to likely end point and journey.
 
Given the value of the brand and the reputation of the products, I'd be very surprised if another manufacturer didn't pick them up. There's a lot of value to be had, especially if assets start getting sold at a discount.

Given that I just bought an 890 Duke R as my next track bike, I do have a vested interest in this outcome :confused: Really hoping that there's a positive outcome here.
 
oomis said:
Given the value of the brand and the reputation of the products, I'd be very surprised if another manufacturer didn't pick them up. There's a lot of value to be had, especially if assets start getting sold at a discount.

Given that I just bought an 890 Duke R as my next track bike, I do have a vested interest in this outcome :confused: Really hoping that there's a positive outcome here.
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The brand has taken some self-inflicted reputational damage of late -- heals quickly with loyal customers -- it scares away prospects.

I don't follow KTM racing but it appears KTM is heavily invested into factory MX teams -- way more than others. If all those factory teams lose KTM factory support, what happens to Win on Sunday, sell on Monday?
 
Trackday said:
I'm not referring to the parts available through aftermarket vendors, but rather those that can only be sourced directly from KTM.
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This is why I sold my V-Rod, which was my daily rider. By the time the V-Rod was only discontinued for a few years, people in the owner's groups were already posting what parts were no longer available new anymore.... and that's with Harley-Davidson still in business.

I loved that bike for 5 yrs and 10s of thousands of km, but I read the writing on the wall and cashed out.

I wouldn't want to own anything as tech-heavy as some of those newer KTMs, from a company no longer in business. It's not the every day wearables anyone should worry about, it's the electronic gizmos, and the motor specific stuff.

Sure, if your Bosch 1234 sensor fails, you can go online and buy a new one from Bosch, but what I learned on an Aprilia Shiver a few years back, was that if you bought the Bosch 1234 sensor from Bosch, it wouldn't work in your Aprilia... but if you bought the Bosch 1234 sensor from Aprilia, identical, same part number, but for some reason the Aprilia Bosch 1234 sensor worked right away. I'm assuming Aprilia programmed it to work with the ECU or who knows what.

What happens when the manufacturer stops being around? Your motorcycle becomes an $8,000 paperweight, or you get $3k for it as a parts bike. All because you couldn't get an $80 sensor anymore.

For a self-employed person, I'm pretty risk adverse (maybe because I'm self-employed I have to be?), so if I had a KTM, I would cash out before people posting issues or concerns becomes a regular occurrence... But I would rather save a few thousand by selling a motorcycle I love, than keep it and lose that money.

There are so many motorcycles out there I can love, and I want green in the bank more than I want orange in the garage.
 
Lightcycle said:
Just noticed on the FortNine website, they are offering OEM parts for a bunch of manufacturers. You can look up parts fiches just like they do at the dealership. Not sure how the pricing compares though, but F9 usually has the best prices. And you're shopping in CAD to boot!

Most of the parts available are for dirtbikes/offroad, particularly KTM/Husky. Also, brands like BMW and Harley not available.
Click to expand...

It appears that FortNine has partnered with a dealer to supply parts. On the FortNine website, the logo for Moto Illimitées is displayed (Nous joindre | Motos Illimitées), suggesting a collaboration. For parts that can only be provided by dealers, the manufacturer remains the sole source. When warehouse inventories run dry that's it.

Meanwhile, some subsidiaries are beginning to fail. For instance, KTM Components' subsidiary in Vöcklabruck has declared insolvency, leaving 134 employees without jobs (KTM Components-Tochter in Vöcklabruck insolvent: 134 Menschen arbeitslos). Others may start to fall as well.

I had an iMac that was only three years old when the video card failed. I took it to the Apple Store, only to be told there were no replacement parts available and that I should try eBay. At that moment, my $3,500 computer became a very expensive paperweight. Lesson learned—I switched back to Windows.

adri said:
There are so many motorcycles out there I can love, and I want green in the bank more than I want orange in the garage.
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Lots of parts no longer available from Aprilia.
adri said:
What happens when the manufacturer stops being around? Your motorcycle becomes an $8,000 paperweight, or you get $3k for it as a parts bike. All because you couldn't get an $80 sensor anymore.
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You're thinking about it backwards. Every time someone gives up on their bike because of an $80 part, the rest of that bike becomes available to everyone else.
 
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Appears that this was a foundry (castings). With the KTM name on them, this is probably a wholly-owned subsidiary which is a sole-source supplier to the mother ship. Pierer Mobility Group is a tangled web of corporate entities.

My observation in the automotive world has been that the mother ship normally owns the parts of the tooling that come in actual contact with the parts being made ... the molds, the fixtures, etc. The intent is that if the supplier goes bankrupt, the mother ship can repossess those parts of the tooling (because they own it). But, integrating that tooling with the casting machinery, the furnaces, the robots, etc., and restarting production with the OEM-owned tooling in a different facility, is not a small job.
 
Relax said:
You're thinking about it backwards. Every time someone gives up on their bike because of an $80 part, the rest of that bike becomes available to everyone else.
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Yes, but if there is a common part that fails, all of them are dead. For instance the Hyosung 250 looked ok but all of the motors died. Buying a parts bike doesn't help when the parts you need are garbage on that bike too.
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