Vote Splitting

[GreyGhost]

Regarding vote splitting, I did a quick non-scientific analysis of 15 close (less than about 3000 votes separating Lib and (con +PPC). If the difference was greater than that I didn't feel vote splitting had any effect. My analysis shows that vote splitting didn't have any effect in the GTA, but did in some further outlying areas. For instance, Cambridge, St. Catharines, London west, Nippissing, Nickel belt and Kanata would be PC, assuming all PPC voted for PC. Like I said, not scientific, so use this info however you'd like.

If you want to do analysis, I think it should be lib+ndp vs con + ppc. Both sides are split by parties that dont have a chance to be the boss.

 

[Lyndsay]

If you want to do analysis, I think it should be lib+ndp vs con + ppc. Both sides are split by parties that dont have a chance to be the boss.

True. I thought of that, but NDP has been around long enough I was letting them be by themselves. I was just trying to see if there were lots that would have flipped such that CON+NDP could have reached 170 seats and formed a coalition. I don't think it could have happened. Take 6 seats from the libs, and give them to the cons, add the 25 NDP, and you're still only about 150.

 

[backmarkerducati]

NDP and CPC are too far apart to ever be a functional (or even theoretical) coalition.

In many provinces mergers have happened to solidify... the below from memory so there may be some off...
-BC, provincial liberals merged with conservatives to form the current BC Liberal party--against powerful NDP
-Alberta, the two recent conservative parties merged, again to fight the NDP.
-Saskatchewan, I believe the current party there is a PC--Liberal merger, again against the NDP.

Federally Reform and PC "merged"....

All to stop vote splitting.

 

[Lyndsay]

NDP and CPC are too far apart to ever be a functional (or even theoretical) coalition.

Probably true, but if JT has issues and the GG asks O'Toole to try, that's his only choice, and my numbers show he'd still need other help, like the BQ.

 

[GreyGhost]

Probably true, but if JT has issues and the GG asks O'Toole to try, that's his only choice, and my numbers show he'd still need other help, like the BQ.

Why is ndp the only choice? CPC and BQ aren't the worst of bedfellows. One cares about one province, the other cares about the remainder of canada. Together they have everyone covered.

 

[Lyndsay]

Why is ndp the only choice? CPC and BQ aren't the worst of bedfellows. One cares about one province, the other cares about the remainder of canada. Together they have everyone covered.

Yeah, but PC + BQ is only 163 with 10 flipped seats to the PC. Still need some NDP support. As it stands now, only the Libs can rule with the support of only one other party.

I don't know what would happen with the votes if the BQ wasn't there, but I seem to recall Quebec being pretty red in the old days.

 

[backmarkerducati]

Why is ndp the only choice? CPC and BQ aren't the worst of bedfellows. One cares about one province, the other cares about the remainder of canada. Together they have everyone covered.

Could also be political suicide aligning with the separatist party in an actual real coalition.

But we don't really have true coalition governments here (can't remember one but they may have existed). In a true coalition some ministers are from one party, others from the other, true coalition power sharing.... Usually we just have one party supported by another without any true power sharing. No reason why it cannot happen rules wise, just doesn't

 

[800over]

But if they had voted PC we might not be saddled with this douche for another who knows how long. When I watched last night a lot of ridings had more votes for PC & PPC combined but niether topped the libs

If my aunt had nuts she'd be my uncle....if if if. If all the greens voted liberal....if the NDP and LIberals didn't split the vote....if the Block didn't take seats in Quebec etc....

 

[timtune]

If my aunt had nuts she'd be my uncle....if if if. If all the greens voted liberal....if the NDP and LIberals didn't split the vote....if the Block didn't take seats in Quebec etc....

You're missing the point - they're both conservative parties. Albeit one's a little nuttier and racist than the other.

 

[justride]

Interesting, on Global News, some who voted in the past Green Party were voting PPC - somewhat of a protest vote against mandatory vaccination / lock down.

 

[GreyGhost]

Interesting, on Global News, some who voted in the past Green Party were voting PPC - somewhat of a protest vote against mandatory vaccination / lock down.

Obviously they like pulling for the underdog (alternatively, depending on their riding, they prefer throwing their votes away as a form of protest).

 

[油井緋色]