The Decline And Fall Of The Dollar & The USA

Interested to hear your local experiences with a big currency devaluation. What country were you in/from? When was this?

Obviously none of us have lived with a global collapse.
 
Yugoslavia. Now i'm sure a lot of you are going "pfft, who cares about that little country..."

Same principles of FIAT currency apply. What saved us was the fact that other FIAT currencies around us were stable and we were able to convert dinars to deutchemarks to retain some value in your work.

Our currency failed due to sanctions, US dollar will fail due to everyone loosing trust in it, what FIAT is based on. The second Nixon cut the tie between US dollar and Gold back in 1971, what was supposed to be a "temporary" measure, the US dollar, and the rest of the world were sent down the path of a meltdown. When the Glass-Steagall act of 1933, banning commercial banks from investing with YOUR money and defined a clear distinction between investment and commercial banks was repealed in 1999, they just downshifted and went full throttle into the wall.

Is it any wonder then that two major bubbles have risen and burst and a third one is about to pop? The Dot.com bubble, the housing bubble and now the government debt bubble.



Interested to hear your local experiences with a big currency devaluation. What country were you in/from? When was this?

Obviously none of us have lived with a global collapse.
 
Yugoslavia's currency failed due to a lot of specific pressures, as you said. It's no fun when you 're on the end of that. There are some good lessons there about what happens in bad times. Yes, dictators and demagogues try to take advantage of the chaos and promise people things they want to hear. They usually make an already-bad situation even worse.

But you have to be careful not to pick up some bad lessons with the good.

People shouting "we need to go back to gold!!!" has been a popular thing for a while now. That won't work unless we roll everything else back to 1920's era economics and infrastructure either.

Gold has some advantages and so does fiat. They both also have disadvantages. Right now, the world has structured itself for fiat currency. Going to gold (or some other fixed physical asset) won't fix anything and would in fact CAUSE a global financial crisis. And currency collapses have happened in countries with gold reserves too. But they're just money systems, tools - they don't control everything. Not any more than a hammer or a car controls things.

The reality is that the world is more complicated than ever. On top of that, most people learn little if anything about economics. People want those easy answers and "just go back to gold!" is one of them, even if there's no dictator selling it and instead it's just some video on youtube. When things are going badly, so many different factors are at work and playing with just one of them won't fix anything (and will often make things worse).

On a global scale, people also fantasize about "blowing it all up" and hoping for society will collapse, for a big war or disaster to wipe things out. Those same people usually think they will play the hero, or at least survive - that's also a fantasy.

If it's just one country, then you can at least try to flee that country as a last resort, but in an event huge enough to hit the whole world, the average person's chances just ain't that good.

People need to be careful what they wish for.
 
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Well said, and i agree with it. People are yelling to go back to gold because thats all they know that has worked. You're right though in the fact that going back to Gold at this point is impossible.

FIAT currency can be used properly IF its regulated and kept in check, but human nature wont let it happen.

Yugoslavia's currency failed due to a lot of specific pressures, as you said. It's no fun when you 're on the end of that. There are some good lessons there about what happens in bad times. Yes, dictators and demagogues try to take advantage of the chaos and promise people things they want to hear. They usually make an already-bad situation even worse.

But you have to be careful not to pick up some bad lessons with the good.

People shouting "we need to go back to gold!!!" has been a popular thing for a while now. That won't work unless we roll everything else back to 1920's era economics and infrastructure either.

Gold has some advantages and so does fiat. They both also have disadvantages. Right now, the world has structured itself for fiat currency. Going to gold (or some other fixed physical asset) won't fix anything and would in fact CAUSE a global financial crisis. And currency collapses have happened in countries with gold reserves too. But they're just money systems, tools - they don't control everything. Not any more than a hammer or a car controls things.

The reality is that the world is more complicated than ever. On top of that, most people learn little if anything about economics. People want those easy answers and "just go back to gold!" is one of them, even if there's no dictator selling it and instead it's just some video on youtube. When things are going badly, so many different factors are at work and playing with just one of them won't fix anything (and will often make things worse).

On a global scale, people also fantasize about "blowing it all up" and hoping for society will collapse, for a big war or disaster to wipe things out. Those same people usually think they will play the hero, or at least survive - that's also a fantasy.

If it's just one country, then you can at least try to flee that country as a last resort, but in an event huge enough to hit the whole world, the average person's chances just ain't that good.

People need to be careful what they wish for.
 
Well said, and i agree with it. People are yelling to go back to gold because thats all they know that has worked. You're right though in the fact that going back to Gold at this point is impossible.

FIAT currency can be used properly IF its regulated and kept in check, but human nature wont let it happen.

your statement is flawed
1. gold measure was a built in check and balance system you can't spend what you don't have unlike this new paper and soon to be digital system

2. people made this monetary system therefore the people that made it, push it, and profit from it will always manipulate it to their advantage
 
No, my statement is not flawed. In theory FIAT works, if it has checks and balances and rules written to limit it.

Unless we physically go to exchanging gold and silver coins, any paper currency back by gold will and has had the same flaws. Trust in that paper, trust in the banking system that tells us "yes, we do have all this gold backing all that paper" Dont forget that US dollar was backed by gold standard up to 1971. From 1944 to 1971, US dollars were technically not FIAT as they were still backed by gold, the only currency to be physically linked to gold, and through US dollar, every other currency.

The trust was gone, the same way trust is disappearing in US dollar right now.

Now, to people who say "well, if FIAT is not the answer, what is..." My answer is, i dont know. Smarter people than me have ideas of what might work. What we know for sure is that due to human nature, current FIAT system simply does not work. I'm sure we can all agree on that.

your statement is flawed
1. gold measure was a built in check and balance system you can't spend what you don't have unlike this new paper and soon to be digital system

2. people made this monetary system therefore the people that made it, push it, and profit from it will always manipulate it to their advantage
 
I am NOT an economist, and have only tried a little learning on my own, so I can't say I have the answers myself. But I do know what WON'T work. Maybe I don't know how to fix a particular electrical problem on my bike, but I DO know that ripping out all the wiring won't help much either.

What I understand is that with gold (or silver, or platinum), your money supply has no elasticity - it's tied to a physical object. That gives money certain properties that affect the economy and makes it hard for companies and people to prosper when you need money to be free and available. The worst outcome is that the economy can freeze solid like a brick of ice - nobody buying or spending.

When you're on fiat money, the money supply can be as elastic as you need it to be as you can just add more to the banking system. The danger there is that things can get out of hand very easily and you see more bubbles - way too much buying and spending, especially more than individuals can afford personally.

You can also get bubbles with gold-backed currency or a freeze with fiat currency, it's just that the two types just have a natural lean.

Western governments also tried a hybrid system after WWII, up until the 70's but they dropped that since it was basically like being on gold only more complicated.

Some people don't like fiat money because they think in simple terms like their own bank accounts and paycheques. But governments don't work like people - they never take a day off, they're never unemployed or retired, they don't die - so government economics don't quite work the way personal economics do.

Fiat currencies are mostly about confidence - almost like a religion! When the government adds money to the system, this feels like the government is "cheating" i.e. printing money. The trick is not to add TOO much money TOO fast, and to always pay your immediate debts with money that's worth close to what it was worth when you accrued the debt (long term debts can be played around with. There are limits, but there's a lot of room to move), otherwise people will lose faith (i.e. trust) in the currency.
 
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That makes sense to these non-economist eyes.

BTW most economists aren't economists either, as the last crash showed ;)
 
Yes i agree, the root issue here is that the entire western civilization and banking system is based on the "consumer" society. Where we have to consume and make more than last year to always feed that "expansion"

Key problem, as we all know, constant expansion is unattainable in long term.

I am NOT an economist, and have only tried a little learning on my own, so I can't say I have the answers myself. But I do know what WON'T work. Maybe I don't know how to fix a particular electrical problem on my bike, but I DO know that ripping out all the wiring won't help much either.

What I understand is that with gold (or silver, or platinum), your money supply has no elasticity - it's tied to a physical object. That gives money certain properties that affect the economy and makes it hard for companies and people to prosper when you need money to be free and available. The worst outcome is that the economy can freeze solid like a brick of ice - nobody buying or spending.

When you're on fiat money, the money supply can be as elastic as you need it to be as you can just add more to the banking system. The danger there is that things can get out of hand very easily and you see more bubbles - way too much buying and spending, especially more than individuals can afford personally.

You can also get bubbles with gold-backed currency or a freeze with fiat currency, it's just that the two types just have a natural lean.

Western governments also tried a hybrid system after WWII, up until the 70's but they dropped that since it was basically like being on gold only more complicated.

Some people don't like fiat money because they think in simple terms like their own bank accounts and paycheques. But governments don't work like people - they never take a day off, they're never unemployed or retired, they don't die - so government economics don't quite work the way personal economics do.

Fiat currencies are mostly about confidence - almost like a religion! When the government adds money to the system, this feels like the government is "cheating" i.e. printing money. The trick is not to add TOO much money TOO fast, and to always pay your immediate debts with money that's worth close to what it was worth when you accrued the debt (long term debts can be played around with. There are limits, but there's a lot of room to move), otherwise people will lose faith (i.e. trust) in the currency.
 
For sure, we could all do with learning to be satisfied with a little less. Otherwise we'll be forced to.

Humans have to learn the hard way most of the time, it seems.

It does seem like there are some natural upper limits though, like the way birth rates naturally fall sharply after prosperity rises past a certain level. Whether that saves us or only causes a crisis we have to work out, well, we'll see.

Fiat money ties into that, because if you look at how much the world population has shot up in the last 200 years, you see that we need more money to come into existence if we want all those people to be able to earn incomes that are similar around the world: I.E. if you quickly add a lot more people, you need to also add a lot more money for them to use. If you don't, then the people who had all the money before (wealthier people in western nations) will just keep it (basically what we had pre-WWII).

That's probably the biggest reason the world shifted to fiat money in the 20th century, so that western governments had enough money to support the postwar population expansion and also do more trade with developing countries. Developing countries copied this as part of trying to bring their incomes up to western levels and also because "Hey, if the big guys don't have to keep up gold, why do we have to?". Of course the world trusted the currency of smaller, less stable countries a lot less, so currency crises were much more common in those places. Some of the worse-off countries then tried things like "pegging" their currency to a fixed point, like the US dollar, which removed some of their independence, but at least gave them some currency stability.
 
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Well, i dont agree that smaller countries chose to go to FIAT, they were basically forced to.

Remember, WW2 affected everyone, and the only winner of that conflict to come out was US. Other than Pearl Harbor and a few other skirmishes on US colonies, US mainland was not in danger or attacked in any shape or form. The rest of the worlds countries were decimated back to stone age basically. US infrastructure was expanded astronomically during the war, just look into the Manhattan project and the enrichment of uranium and you'll see the $$$ that was thrown at that one single project. Its insane. US was able to print money against its Gold stock simply because everyone else was too busy trying to survive to give a ****.

US was lending money out left right and center and other countries had no choice but to go with it if they wanted any sort of rebuilding to be achieved. You think Britain nilly willy gave up the GBP as the defacto world currency gladly?

US dollar being the only currency linked to gold was US idea, and nobody elses.

The rise of the petrodollar, and US firm grip on the worlds need to use US dollars, and nothing else to purchase oil from trading countries has led to its situation now.

I cant pull up exact numbers and dates but up until early 20th century, US dollars to Gold was pretty much a set amount. Inflation did not exist the way we know it now. Between WW2 and 1971, US dollar to Gold was also a pretty set amount, not changing very much. 1971 to 2013, it has gone from 32 dollars an ounce to 1400, 1500? That is frigging insane. And its not the gold thats gone ski high, since an once of gold would in todays day and age buy you about the same amount of solid goods as back in 1971 at its exhange rate.

found it. http://www.nma.org/pdf/gold/his_gold_prices.pdf

Basically from 1833 to 1971 the price rose from $18.50 to $32.00. 138 years to double its value. Todays gold value on stock market? $1383.

Inflation is robbing everyone everyday as it devalues your hard earned money, it doesnt reward savings, it rewards risk, it rewards investing your money so other people can get rich off of it, and your return will be enough to cover the inflation cost.

Think about it. 3% return is just enough to overcome the reported 3% inflation rate (actual inflation rate is much higher).


For sure, we could all do with learning to be satisfied with a little less. Otherwise we'll be forced to.

Humans have to learn the hard way most of the time, it seems.

It does seem like there are some natural upper limits though, like the way birth rates naturally fall sharply after prosperity rises past a certain level. Whether that saves us or only causes a crisis we have to work out, well, we'll see.

Fiat money ties into that, because if you look at how much the world population has shot up in the last 200 years, you see that we need more money to come into existence if we want all those people to be able to earn incomes that are similar around the world: I.E. if you quickly add a lot more people, you need to also add a lot more money for them to use. If you don't, then the people who had all the money before (wealthier people in western nations) will just keep it (basically what we had pre-WWII).

That's probably the biggest reason the world shifted to fiat money in the 20th century, so that western governments had enough money to support the postwar population expansion and also do more trade with developing countries. Developing countries copied this as part of trying to bring their incomes up to western levels and also because "Hey, if the big guys don't have to keep up gold, why do we have to?". Of course the world trusted the currency of smaller, less stable countries a lot less, so currency crises were much more common in those places. Some of the worse-off countries then tried things like "pegging" their currency to a fixed point, like the US dollar, which removed some of their independence, but at least gave them some currency stability.
 
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No no, I agree. I was deliberately keeping my explanation simple, so I probably oversimplified with that last point.

Also agree that the real inflation rate is almost certainly higher than reported. And wage stagnation is a very real thing.

Thing is, people have been hiding that with credit expansion. Nobody likes the idea that they can't buy as much as their parents did, so there's a bit of self denial. You buy a little less and tell yourself it's the same thing, you use more credit, etc. etc. Household finances are flexible enough to accomodate that, but only to a point. Eventually it becomes obvious how broke you are, but that's usually only after it's too late.

I think a lot of the current generation of young people are going to have pretty bad financial troubles as they get older, because the collective effect of all this denial is to push as much off to the future as you can. God knows I do it myself too. This town is bloody expensive.
 
That would cause the stock market to crash. Shareholders don't like the word "Less".

The Stock Market...lol
What a scam that is. Yes, you can jump in and make money and jump out.
The stock market is like a Casino that's why they even tell you don't put in what you can't afford to lose.
 
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