New Highway 413 Yea or Nay?

[nobbie48]

It would be way cheaper to pay the 407 tolls of trucks and ban them from the 401

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Stop thinking. Others might catch on.

 

[GreyGhost]

It would be way cheaper to pay the 407 tolls of trucks and ban them from the 401

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That's not how monopolies work. Even if they didn't jack the rates (which I 100% expect they would), 20,000 trucks a day, 404-401 at about $100 each, that's $2M/day or $0.75B/year. That probably makes payback period for 413 just over 10 years when looking at trucks alone and assuming they didn't jack rates.

EDIT:
The math that show the 407 is much cheaper comes from an opposition motion to reduce 407 fees for trucks. Good (*&*(&* luck with that. You leased it out with a crap contract for a century and then want to go back in and dictate terms to cut their profits? That won't be a winner in any court and 407 ownership won't agree to it voluntarily unless there is a bigger win handed to them elsewhere.

Here's the backup report. They want tolls to go from current $1.40-1.80/km to $0.20/km. Then trucks will use the 407 and all is right with the world. They completely ignored that it's a monopoly and rates will climb rapidly and with no bounds. Their math says $4B over 30 years is sufficient subsidy. My math says the $4B will be used up in less than five years and then what?

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environmentaldefence.ca

 

[GreyGhost]

Stop thinking. Others might catch on.

Hopefully those that catch on are the politicians that lease our assets for 99 years. F all of those guys. A 30 year lease would be done now and public 407 could negate the need for 413.

 

[nobbie48]

That's not how monopolies work. Even if they didn't jack the rates (which I 100% expect they would), 20,000 trucks a day, 404-401 at about $100 each, that's $2M/day or $0.75B/year. That probably makes payback period for 413 just over 10 years when looking at trucks alone and assuming they didn't jack rates.

EDIT:
The math that show the 407 is much cheaper comes from an opposition motion to reduce 407 fees for trucks. Good (*&*(&* luck with that. You leased it out with a crap contract for a century and then want to go back in and dictate terms to cut their profits? That won't be a winner in any court and 407 ownership won't agree to it voluntarily unless there is a bigger win handed to them elsewhere.

Here's the backup report. They want tolls to go from current $1.40-1.80/km to $0.20/km. Then trucks will use the 407 and all is right with the world. They completely ignored that it's a monopoly and rates will climb rapidly and with no bounds. Their math says $4B over 30 years is sufficient subsidy. My math says the $4B will be used up in less than five years and then what?

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environmentaldefence.ca

Wasn't there a clause in the 407 contract that said the government couldn't do anything that would hurt profits.

If the 413 is going to affect profits the 407 will be demanding compensation.

if I understand correctly it the 407 was a provincial deal and contract. The feds probably didn't sign it. Therefore the feds could build a parallel free highway. It's only money.

Is there an escalator clause in the 407 lease?

 

[GreyGhost]

if I understand correctly it the 407 was a provincial deal and contract. The feds probably didn't sign it. Therefore the feds could build a parallel free highway. It's only money.

When have the feds done anything useful with money? They'd probably spend $10B on consultants and then say they found three lizards on the path and the project was being mothballed.

 

[backmarkerducati]

Wasn't there a clause in the 407 contract that said the government couldn't do anything that would hurt profits.

If the 413 is going to affect profits the 407 will be demanding compensation.

if I understand correctly it the 407 was a provincial deal and contract. The feds probably didn't sign it. Therefore the feds could build a parallel free highway. It's only money.

Is there an escalator clause in the 407 lease?

AFAIK there is a clause but possibly the 413 is far enough away to not matter? I also believe there were limits on (how much) QEW expansion through Burlington and Oakville... at the same time I am not looking at the contract.

And given recent noise, the province would be screaming bloody murder about feds in their pool.

 

[matthew]

One more lane will solve our traffic problems.