Impeding recession?

油井緋色

油井緋色

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The Canadian dollar is taking a beating, but why would that matter? :p Other economic indicators are stable.

The exchange rate has been fuelled mostly by speculation. It is not like the economy took a nosedive with the dollar...
 
brucewayne said:
so the real question is... will overseas oil become cheap or expensive? should i buy american dollars now?
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There are numerous sites that will teach you the fine art of currency speculation. Sign up for bankruptcy 101 while you're at it. It's a crap shoot.
 
Hope it drops to 60 cents. I have a crap ton of USD I need to convert soon. ever cent drop = thousands more
 
brucewayne said:
so the real question is... will overseas oil become cheap or expensive? should i buy american dollars now?
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US is now the #1 oil producer in the world. Their policy now is to keep oil cheap, gone (most likely) are the days of $100+ barrel of crude oil. So unless someone in the world decide to cut production (OPEC already said no), then oil will probably stay low for a while.

When oil is cheap, it's not worth the cost to frack oil and might not be worth it for oil sands either given the large investment costs, so we are probably not selling that much oil or oil companies are starting to cut cost (e.g. labour). When people aren't buying oil from us, they don't buy CDN$, that's why our currency is valued less. So until we are exporting more (or import less), CDN$ won't be gaining value for a while.

I don't think we are quite feeling the recession yet in Ontario, but they are probably seeing some effects in Alberta, and other oiling area.

Should you buy American dollars now, maybe. Factor in what's happening in Greece, some people might dump Euro and take shelter in buying American dollars, others might buy gold or other currency. In the short term, you probably won't see American dollars go down.
 
There's no way for you to impede it, and you'll just get yourself run over.

Get a better portfolio manager.

Some things that are down might be a buying opportunity.
 
A low dollar is beneficial. Anyone that exports goods to the US knows that. And we export a lot. Our dollar has been traditionally low compared to the US Dollar over the years, when we had a trade surplus . You will see manufacturing strengthening, offsetting the false economy of the oil patch.

The oil thing will rise again as well. Three years ago, you would be hard pressed to remember the huge oil glut of 1980, when oil went down to 18.00/barrel. Then, in 2007, it was a "finite resource that will run out shortly". The only thing that you can count on are the up and down cycles.
 
Impending?

Waiting for Greece to go tits up....then the Euro will tank more and I can get more European gear with my Canadian pesos.
 
I suspect that a Greece failure (of whatever sort) is largely priced into the market. There will still be some reaction, but it's not like this is going to be a surprise.
 
On CNN I heard that Greece is like 2% of the European economy. It might actually be 2% of the European economy. It was CNN.
 
I'm ok with a .80 cent dollar but a .70c dollar is very problematic.

and Greece going tits is a lot bigger issue than it looks from a distance.
 
Brian P said:
I suspect that a Greece failure (of whatever sort) is largely priced into the market. There will still be some reaction, but it's not like this is going to be a surprise.
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Nobody knows what will happen, even if any of one the possible scenarios play out. It's uncharted waters. Volatility will reign for a good while, even if the resolution just keeps being delayed.

And for the OP, the value of the CAD has nothing much to do with being in a recession or not.
 
In a few years the baby boomers will retire in huge numbers and a lot will be inheriting a ton of cash from their parents who will pass on after going thru a depression and world war.Their parents didn't spend,but the boomers will.Reliving their youth with retro cars and bikes.All the spending will have an effect on the economy for sure.It has been said that a trillion dollars will change hands.
 
Brian P said:
I suspect that a Greece failure (of whatever sort) is largely priced into the market. There will still be some reaction, but it's not like this is going to be a surprise.
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I'm pretty sure the Euro will take a bit of a kicking if Greece gets the boot, it's already down because of general fears on the issue. Nervousness about Spain and Portugal defaulting won't help either no matter how misplaced the thoughts. It might only last a few weeks or so but that's enough to put in an order for some Italian or German riding gear :)
 
crankcall said:
I'm ok with a .80 cent dollar but a .70c dollar is very problematic.

and Greece going tits is a lot bigger issue than it looks from a distance.
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It is, because when (I'm convinced that this is a "when", not an "if") Greece fails, who's next. There are a number of other European countries that are not in good shape. But, this is also well known, so it should be priced in to some extent.

Volatility? Absolutely.
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