Elephant in the Covid room | Page 86 | GTAMotorcycle.com

Elephant in the Covid room

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Mad Mike said:
Every week the number of 'wait and see' people is dropping dramatically. I Jan, only 46% of Americans were willing to be vaccinated, that's increased to 70% -- enough to reach herd immunity. The 'wall' per se is a supply issue, their system is fully ramped and now delivering doses as they are shipped with little distribution backlogs/snafus.

About 22% of Americans say 'NO WAY', and half of those would go if DT assured them it was safe to do so.

We can't catch them.
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But we ARE catching them: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research (Add Canada, uncheck random countries to unclutter the graph)

On "at least one dose" basis, we are 10.33% behind today. Two weeks ago, we were 15.22% behind. By the numbers in this measurement, we catch up to the USA at the end of May. (I think it will be in the third week of May.)

YES, they have more people fully vaccinated with both doses, but the UK's experience has been that ~50% of the population vaccinated with the first dose is enough to drop the case numbers to a low level.

On a "doses administered per 100 people", they are at 73.43 now, 68.37 a week ago (average 2.4 million doses per day). They were at 62.61 the week before that ... their vaccination rate is slowing down. There are more and more reports of vaccine appointments going unfilled.

We are at 36.63 now, 31.91 a week ago, 26.44 the week before that. We know that this is supply-constrained and this past week involved many pharmacies in Ontario running out of their supply of AstraZeneca. Theoretically (haven't heard) a shipment of more than 2 million Pfizer doses landed in Canada today.

This country is not without problem areas. Peel Region has been a problem area. Looks like the next one will be Alberta.
 
Brian P said:
But we ARE catching them: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research (Add Canada, uncheck random countries to unclutter the graph)

On "at least one dose" basis, we are 10.33% behind today. Two weeks ago, we were 15.22% behind. By the numbers in this measurement, we catch up to the USA at the end of May. (I think it will be in the third week of May.)

YES, they have more people fully vaccinated with both doses, but the UK's experience has been that ~50% of the population vaccinated with the first dose is enough to drop the case numbers to a low level.

On a "doses administered per 100 people", they are at 73.43 now, 68.37 a week ago (average 2.4 million doses per day). They were at 62.61 the week before that ... their vaccination rate is slowing down. There are more and more reports of vaccine appointments going unfilled.

We are at 36.63 now, 31.91 a week ago, 26.44 the week before that. We know that this is supply-constrained and this past week involved many pharmacies in Ontario running out of their supply of AstraZeneca. Theoretically (haven't heard) a shipment of more than 2 million Pfizer doses landed in Canada today.

This country is not without problem areas. Peel Region has been a problem area. Looks like the next one will be Alberta.
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Think about it for a second, 13m of the 20 m doses we will receive in the next 4 mos are going to already vaccinated people- it’s their second shot.

Another 4 million will go to those 2m receiving shots 1 and 2 in may and August. brings us up to 15m. The remaining 4m will be first shots for some, so by sept we will have 15m fully vaccinated, and 4m with 1 dose.

Cant catch them.
 
Mad Mike said:
Think about it for a second, 13m of the 20 m doses we will receive in the next 4 mos are going to already vaccinated people- it’s their second shot.

Another 4 million will go to those 2m receiving shots 1 and 2 in may and August. brings us up to 15m. The remaining 4m will be first shots for some, so by sept we will have 15m fully vaccinated, and 4m with 1 dose.

Cant catch them.
Click to expand...
Where did you get 20M doses in four months? Pfizer alone should be more than that. The latest I saw was >2M per week before the end of May and continuing to ramp up from there. That would put Pfizer alone at ~30M doses.
 
Pfizer 2.1 million per week through May (first delivery being today), 2.4 million per week through June. That's around 18 million doses and it doesn't include Moderna who have been having supply issues.

We switched to the 4-months-delayed strategy in late February; the relatively small number of people who were vaccinated up to late February mostly already got their second dose. Those who got their first shot in early March (which is when the numbers really started ramping up) aren't due their second shot until early July. So the 18 million doses of Pfizer alone through June will be mostly first shots. That plus the almost 13 million people who already have their first shot is enough to cover the entire adult population of the country with their first dose. And that's with Pfizer only. Add Moderna, whose supply rate is non-zero. Maybe we will get some J&J or AZ on top of that but it almost doesn't matter. We will hit our own vaccine-hesitancy thresholds before the end of June for first shots.

The 4-month delay for the second shot did not get pulled from thin air. It's about what it needs to be for this strategy. The statement from the PM that everyone in Canada who wants a vaccine shot will have one available by "the summer" or "by Canada Day" ... looks about right from here.

The big problem in the USA won't be vaccine supply. It will be vaccine hesitancy, and the signs of it have been showing up already for the last few weeks. I HOPE that improves over time, because we can't get out of our situation until the USA also gets out of theirs.

Look here, and check the check-box for "people receiving dose 1", and look at the shape of that graph: COVID Data Tracker

You can't get "fully vaccinated" unless you take that first dose ...
 
Mad Mike said:
Maybe @mimico_polak can chime in on this - I'm guessing he has insider knowledge in this area.

Decades ago I worked behind the iron curtain, spent a fair amount of time facilitating delivery of DEC computers through Canada to the Eastern block. Lots of time in East Berlin, Gdansk and Prague before the wall(s) came down. I remember so many uni students were active and engaged -- what surprised me was their naivety and blind trust. Many wanted freedoms of the west, but were really scared about losing protection offered by their governments.
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I was 9 when we left so don't really have that much experience with what the older generation went through. But I can tell you that everyone did whatever the hell they could to survive. Trade this, trade that...one hand rubs another type of thing. Everyone had a 'guy' to get a hold of something. Everything was possible to get done and brought in, but it wasn't easy and you had to keep quiet or else you could disappear. Everyone was doing it, just everyone kept quiet about it.

I still remember the long lines to the local store, shortage of product, and my sister proudly coming home with 1 banana when my mother clearly said '1kg of bananas'.

A few of the older generation guys I know here still claim "life was better under communism". And I never understood that, until I asked some questions and turns out the guy was in the military, or upper management in the 'Party' offices and had whatever they wanted.
 
With Bill Gates getting divorced , should Japanese robotics and sex toys be a good market gamble? Bills going to need a robot and Melinda will need a 2.5" dildo .
 
GreyGhost said:
Where did you get 20M doses in four months? Pfizer alone should be more than that. The latest I saw was >2M per week before the end of May and continuing to ramp up from there. That would put Pfizer alone at ~30M doses.
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Last week: Vaccines for COVID-19: Shipments and deliveries - Canada.ca

But this changes frequently. If you looked at this at the end of Feb, the forecast from Gov Can was 84-million doses by Sept from Moderna and Phizer. Clearly they were woefully off on that forecast and so far they have been been in my mind criminally optimistic (think what would happen if a public company issued near-term guidance that was 2-3x over what they would achieve). On March 25, Vaccines and treatments for COVID-19: Vaccine rollout - Canada.ca Gov Can reported 6.2M doses delivered and 10.4M scheduled before the end of April. They reached 13m doses delivered at the end of April including 1.5M AZ doses that were not forecast - that means they were off by 5M, or about <40% on a 1 mo forecast.
 
PrivatePilot said:
Yes. He follows the rules in places where he knows he has to or there will be actual consequences. Like at work.

He's then that guy you see waltzing into the grocery store and telling off the poor kid working at the "Do you have any Covid symptoms, and please put on a mask" desk by chirping about his "medical exemption" (he has no such medical issue) or whatever other cockamamie justification he read on the "No New Normal" Reddit sub that morning.



The USA is starting to hit their wall. Already happening. Vaccination was too politicized and the far right thinks vaccines are the devil.

We will surpass then on a per capita basis. Only question is..when. I think it'll be faster than many expect.
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Canadian gullibility: Even if a person has a medical condition they can't enter a store without a mask. It only identifies them as a person that needs special handling, LIKE ORDERING ON LINE.

I got a mask exemption card for my dead brother. No medical exam needed. Another Ford fiasco.
 
Mad Mike said:
Every week the number of 'wait and see' people is dropping dramatically. I Jan, only 46% of Americans were willing to be vaccinated, that's increased to 70% -- enough to reach herd immunity. The 'wall' per se is a supply issue, their system is fully ramped and now delivering doses as they are shipped with little distribution backlogs/snafus.

About 22% of Americans say 'NO WAY', and half of those would go if DT assured them it was safe to do so.

We can't catch them.
Click to expand...
Just to bring myself around to what is out there I go to a site that has become almost total redneck. The twisted minds there post half truths. IE The most cited doctor blah blah blah. They don't research that just because a person comments a lot it doesn't mean they know what they're talking about. Their crap doesn't get challenged by bona fide experts because true experts don't waste time arguing with idiots.

Vaccines are poison darts, 5G, etc

I don't know if it's part of the Dunning Krueger effect but the more stupid the comment is that a person makes, the more fervently they defend it.
 
Brian P said:
But we ARE catching them: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research (Add Canada, uncheck random countries to unclutter the graph)

On "at least one dose" basis, we are 10.33% behind today. Two weeks ago, we were 15.22% behind. By the numbers in this measurement, we catch up to the USA at the end of May. (I think it will be in the third week of May.)

YES, they have more people fully vaccinated with both doses, but the UK's experience has been that ~50% of the population vaccinated with the first dose is enough to drop the case numbers to a low level.

On a "doses administered per 100 people", they are at 73.43 now, 68.37 a week ago (average 2.4 million doses per day). They were at 62.61 the week before that ... their vaccination rate is slowing down. There are more and more reports of vaccine appointments going unfilled.

We are at 36.63 now, 31.91 a week ago, 26.44 the week before that. We know that this is supply-constrained and this past week involved many pharmacies in Ontario running out of their supply of AstraZeneca. Theoretically (haven't heard) a shipment of more than 2 million Pfizer doses landed in Canada today.

This country is not without problem areas. Peel Region has been a problem area. Looks like the next one will be Alberta.
Click to expand...
Isn't Alberta way ahead of us in the bad percentages? Then there's the tough guy "Marlborough Man" image. If they lock down a lot of the residents are non-Albertans and will try to go home to wait it out. I am under the impression a lot are from Newfoundland.

Follow the bouncing red ball with spikes.
 
nobbie48 said:
Isn't Alberta way ahead of us in the bad percentages? Then there's the tough guy "Marlborough Man" image. If they lock down a lot of the residents are non-Albertans and will try to go home to wait it out. I am under the impression a lot are from Newfoundland.

Follow the bouncing red ball with spikes.
Click to expand...
you would probably be wrong with that impression, a lot of NFLnders went home after the oil bust.

didn't really see hoards of downhomers around Calgary and Edmonton when i was traveling out west
 
nobbie48 said:
You must know one of my ex girlfriends.
Click to expand...

Or one of mine. She’s in Winnipeg now. I lie in wait hoping for a chance to slip Persontoba into a conversation.
 
mimico_polak said:
I was 9 when we left so don't really have that much experience with what the older generation went through. But I can tell you that everyone did whatever the hell they could to survive. Trade this, trade that...one hand rubs another type of thing. Everyone had a 'guy' to get a hold of something. Everything was possible to get done and brought in, but it wasn't easy and you had to keep quiet or else you could disappear. Everyone was doing it, just everyone kept quiet about it.

I still remember the long lines to the local store, shortage of product, and my sister proudly coming home with 1 banana when my mother clearly said '1kg of bananas'.

A few of the older generation guys I know here still claim "life was better under communism". And I never understood that, until I asked some questions and turns out the guy was in the military, or upper management in the 'Party' offices and had whatever they wanted.
Click to expand...
We have some of that here. "It was better before all this equality crap and PC stuff". Yeah if you're a white Anglo Saxon male.
 
ToSlow said:
you would probably be wrong with that impression, a lot of NFLnders went home after the oil bust.

didn't really see hoards of downhomers around Calgary and Edmonton when i was traveling out west
Click to expand...

For a couple years air canada ran non stop flights Ft Mac to StJohn's Nfld . weekly rotation of Newfs , and your correct they were highly concentrated in the oil patch . There are still lots but the weekly flights have stopped.
Three or four yrs in the patch for smart guys and your setup nicely on the rock.

The not smart guys have lifted F350's , vacationed in Hawaii and owned 2 sleds (cause 1 is always in the shop) and went home with the same pair of boots they showed up with. And a hangover.
 
jc100 said:
Have you considered that a company that puts out more drugs than another company might also get sued more.
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That wasn't the focus on my post. the focus was to make awareness that not all things are perfect and to be trusted
 
crankcall said:
For a couple years air canada ran non stop flights Ft Mac to StJohn's Nfld . weekly rotation of Newfs , and your correct they were highly concentrated in the oil patch . There are still lots but the weekly flights have stopped.
Three or four yrs in the patch for smart guys and your setup nicely on the rock.

The not smart guys have lifted F350's , vacationed in Hawaii and owned 2 sleds (cause 1 is always in the shop) and went home with the same pair of boots they showed up with. And a hangover.
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Know plenty of those. Can’t stop working into retirement because the lifestyle was too good....decades of 200+ salary and not a damn thing to show for it except some toys.

The smart ones paid off all debts and lived as if though on a normal salary.

The not so smart had a hell of a time, and 3+ wives for the ones that didn’t realize hookers are cheaper than divorces.
 
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