COVID and the housing market | Page 63 | GTAMotorcycle.com

COVID and the housing market

Kids resp is all xqq right now. >16% average yearly return since inception. For shorter term investments I wouldnt use the currency hedged version.

The point was that someone new to investing and reading threads on the Internet is going to take your suggestion of investing in an ETF with equal weight as the guy who is pumping Stonks.

A newbie may even be swayed more by Stonk-guy over ETF-guy.

After all, 1000% return overnight is much better than 16% over a whole year, isn't it?

Isn't it?!?
 
The point was that someone new to investing and reading threads on the Internet is going to take your suggestion of investing in an ETF with equal weight as the guy who is pumping Stonks.

A newbie may even be swayed more by Stonk-guy over ETF-guy.

After all, 1000% return overnight is much better than 16% over a whole year, isn't it?

Isn't it?!?
Sure, but you need to pull out before you impregnate your investment, and you know how hard that is.
If you can't pull out in time, your investment is royally ****ed.
 
What is real value? The house near my kids school that was listed for 680 nine months ago just sold for 852 after five days on the market. It is in town with a gravel driveway.
Beats me. Banks are getting scared?

 
Beats me. Banks are getting scared?

Banks are talking but continuing to approve the loans. They are after something from the politicians. They aren't too concerned about the house prices. Nothing restricts banks from underwriting criteria they believe are reasonable even if it exceeds government minimums.
 
Beats me. Banks are getting scared?

Why would the banks care? They give better rates to people with less than 20% so now their investment is insured by the feds.

Win win for the banks. People will pull every stop they can in order not to lose a home.
 
When we are talking about affordability, it's important to remember how hard the governments are also sucking on this teat. Development charges for a semi in Markham are $110,000 per dwelling. Tack all the permit fees on top of that. Even if people tried to sell houses for zero profit (which is obviously unlikely), land+materials+labor+fees is unaffordable to many. Governments love condos as they turn what was ~20K in property tax into 240K and they get to reduce services (no municipal garbage for condos for instance). Markham condo 700 sq ft or larger is ~70K in DC's so a typical condo is millions of cash injection into the municipality. That is why it is almost laughable when existing homeowners complain about the municipalities being in the developers pockets. The municipality doesn't care much about the developer but they are addicted to the income from development. They need more and more density to support the ponzi scheme they operate. Mississauga under Hazel was rocking but now much of that infrastructure is needing replaced and all the money collected has been spent. Approve some towers to get money to fix yesterdays poor planning. Worry about the impact of the towers tomorrow.
 
Yup. Mississauga was famous for this...build build build as the development charges and money coming in was awesome for the municipality.

Then development stopped for the most part as land was running out....oops.

Oh ****, now we need to increase the infrastructure to actually deal with all these new development but the money dried up. Let’s raise taxes. New sewers, treatment plants, distribution lines, more police, more fire stations more more more.

Same as work, money’s great once it’s coming in...but sometimes that cash flow dries up and you better have a plan.
 
Here's an article on a laneway house in Toronto. 1000 sq ft 2 bedroom on a 25' lot. Land was already paid for so they just had to pay construction costs. That was 350K. Now you have the knock on effect of if that parcel ever comes up for sale is is probably 500K more so it is expensive even for a step up house.

 
Banks are talking but continuing to approve the loans. They are after something from the politicians. They aren't too concerned about the house prices. Nothing restricts banks from underwriting criteria they believe are reasonable even if it exceeds government minimums.
Im not fully versed in CMHC's role but if they stopped backing mortgages, I have a feeling banks and lenders will stop handing out money like candy.
 
Im not fully versed in CMHC's role but if they stopped backing mortgages, I have a feeling banks and lenders will stop handing out money like candy.
Maybe that is CMHC's plan. IIRC they won't touch properties with a purchase price over 1M. A few more months of waffling and they won't have much left eligible to insure.
 
Im not fully versed in CMHC's role but if they stopped backing mortgages, I have a feeling banks and lenders will stop handing out money like candy.
If the banks take the risk on instead of CMHC....you’ll see a lot LESS leeway in the lending arrangement. When it’s their money at risk, rates will go up to make up for that risk and gone are the days of people making 70k and getting 800k mortgaged.

Right now the only people paying for the default are the taxpayers. Zero risk for the bank. I had brokers tell me to put 19.5% down so I qualify for CMHC.
 
If the banks take the risk on instead of CMHC....you’ll see a lot LESS leeway in the lending arrangement. When it’s their money at risk, rates will go up to make up for that risk and gone are the days of people making 70k and getting 800k mortgaged.

Right now the only people paying for the default are the taxpayers. Zero risk for the bank. I had brokers tell me to put 19.5% down so I qualify for CMHC.
Our resident GTAM mortgage broker was saying he had rates down to ~1% IIRC but you had to have a high ratio mortgage so the bank had no risk. The more money you put down, the worse your rate is. When that crap starts happening, you know the system has fundamental problems.
 
Why would the banks care? They give better rates to people with less than 20% so now their investment is insured by the feds.

Win win for the banks. People will pull every stop they can in order not to lose a home.
Not necessarily. In her job with an insurance company she was seeing people declare bankruptcy over $20 K. Flip burgers for a year and leave clean.

Work the system. A lot of creditors will take a reduced amount if you can show a reasonable game plan.

Would this be possible...

John Doe buys a house, $1 M with $100 K down, $900 K mortgage from the bank of whatever.

The market crashes and the house is worth $700 K, he's $200 K underwater.

Declare bankruptcy.

John Doe's parents buy the house for $700 K and rent it to him.

$200 K of the banks mortgage portfolio disappears.
 
That is diabolically genius @nobbie48 ... I would have never ever considered that scenario...I’m too naive and a straight shooter but holy **** that’s a good way to work your way through the system. However wrong it is.

EDIT: @GreyGhost we also had similar offer from our broker....however with that arrangement I couldn’t afford to buy either of my properties so we had to drop close to 40% down.
 
When we are talking about affordability, it's important to remember how hard the governments are also sucking on this teat. Development charges for a semi in Markham are $110,000 per dwelling. Tack all the permit fees on top of that. Even if people tried to sell houses for zero profit (which is obviously unlikely), land+materials+labor+fees is unaffordable to many. Governments love condos as they turn what was ~20K in property tax into 240K and they get to reduce services (no municipal garbage for condos for instance). Markham condo 700 sq ft or larger is ~70K in DC's so a typical condo is millions of cash injection into the municipality. That is why it is almost laughable when existing homeowners complain about the municipalities being in the developers pockets. The municipality doesn't care much about the developer but they are addicted to the income from development. They need more and more density to support the ponzi scheme they operate. Mississauga under Hazel was rocking but now much of that infrastructure is needing replaced and all the money collected has been spent. Approve some towers to get money to fix yesterdays poor planning. Worry about the impact of the towers tomorrow.
My blood just went from simmer to full boil. Why don't people riot over BTC taxes.

Why do they surtax tax car air conditioning? Because They Can.

Why do they increase your property taxes if you fix up your house in a way that doesn't increase the city's costs. BTC.

We have been told to detach our eaves downspouts from the sewer system because new development is overloading the system. Where did the development charges go? I thought this was what they were for, adding system capacity. Maybe that's a poor example but what's the point of the development charge? BTC.

I can't understand why we don't go after BTC taxes like the NRA goes after anything that remotely goes against their mission.

Market value taxation: BTC. Shouldn't property taxes be like an expense report?

For example $0.20 per square foot for the land and $3.00 a SF for the house. 1200 SF bungalow on a 50 X 100 lot is $1000 for the land and $3600 for the house.

If you fully top the house to a 2 story your taxes go up $3600. Maybe a reduced rate for a second floor, $2.00.

Basically a formula that doesn't need interpreters on the payroll and guesswork for the owner if they want an addition.

It also adds to unfair arguments "Your million dollar house in Toronto doesn't get taxed as hard as my million dollar house in Butscratch." Your Butscratch house is twice the size on twice the lot. Not that simple because industry pays out, economies of scale.

Building permits based on job size not cost. Does it cost more to inspect a marble floor than linoleum?

When I took architectural design in college a lot of my classmates got jobs as plans examiners. Under a certain area and height a building didn't need the stamp of an architect or engineer. Now plans have to be engineer or architect stamped, Hamilton anyway. No potential city liability but still a healthy fee. BTC.

ESA is pushing self inspection but there's still a fee. BTC. Try explaining the inspection fee to a homeowner who didn't see an inspector on site.

Yes we do need tax revenue for social services and those numbers don't relate to formulas. If that was handled by a head tax or as part of income tax it might get people thinking about where the money is going.

People might ask what the percent growth is of social services. If it's above the cost of living, why?

Is our reality perception out of whack? Are there too many abusers? Is our government incompetent?

The last part is tough. You can't create a living wage and exterminate anyone who fails to make it work. Neither can you ignore Margaret Thatcher's point "At some point you run out of other people's money to spend."

Some of the above may be outdated but things government related tend to change for the worse.

Housing goof up award # 1 goes to the feds for not making adjustments to the capital gains situation in a timely manner. The provinces get a share that they don't turn down.

The 50% exemption may be required for industry to reward investors for taking risks to get new products to market but if there is no value added why the exemption?

They made some changes 50 ish years ago, taking secondary properties off the list.

Five years ago there were some more changes in that the owner had to reside in the property. No more buying a house for your 2 YO and renting it out.

We need a realistic dialogue on what to do to avoid stabbing the present owners in the back while making it possible for future generations to have a hope of achieving their dreams.

Have a think tank. Is it workable to have people choose between the present system and the American one: Your house is subject to capital gains but you can claim the mortgage interest as an expense.

If you keep the present system and sell later in life your gain goes into a RRIF or part RRIF and part TFSA.

Do something except keep on with BTC taxes.

Maybe if they opened a dialogue on the above a few more people with wake up and say "You mean the gravy train won't last forever?"

I need a pill.
 
Not necessarily. In her job with an insurance company she was seeing people declare bankruptcy over $20 K. Flip burgers for a year and leave clean.

Work the system. A lot of creditors will take a reduced amount if you can show a reasonable game plan.

Would this be possible...

John Doe buys a house, $1 M with $100 K down, $900 K mortgage from the bank of whatever.

The market crashes and the house is worth $700 K, he's $200 K underwater.

Declare bankruptcy.

John Doe's parents buy the house for $700 K and rent it to him.

$200 K of the banks mortgage portfolio disappears.
Where's the upside for Joe? He has blown the the $100k down payment, to get a $900,000 mortgage he would be making a little over $200,000 so I assume has some other savings that get lost as part of the bankruptcy, screws his credit for the next 8 years so he can't buy anything else.

Sure the bank loses $200,000 but Joe is probably better to ride it out and make payments on his house. No?
 
Where's the upside for Joe? He has blown the the $100k down payment, to get a $900,000 mortgage he would be making a little over $200,000 so I assume has some other savings that get lost as part of the bankruptcy, screws his credit for the next 8 years so he can't buy anything else.

Sure the bank loses $200,000 but Joe is probably better to ride it out and make payments on his house. No?
It wouldn't be my way of doing things but assets can disappear before the bailiff shows up. Leased car isn't an asset. Replace the pricey furniture and electronics with stuff from garage sales, etc.

The scenario would be plausible in today's over priced market. A young guy thinks aggressively and goes after the big real estate score and inflation will make him rich. Crash and no other assets, no RRSPs or TFSAs, all in one barrel.

Bail out and stay in the same home and pay the reduced mortgage through dad.

For 8 years pay cash or, again, through dad's credit.

The eight years is often mentioned and is likely some legal limit. However the internet has a long memory and somewhere there is a line of text that will show up on a search.

Someone lost their job a number of years ago when they falsely denied ever going bankrupt. They thought the eight year rule covered them but the employer (Possibly looking for a dismissal with cause) checked with, IIRC, the Department of Commercial and Consumer Affairs and found a 14 YO bankruptcy. Dismissed for lying on an employment application, not for having a bankruptcy.
 

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